We have nine games to choose from this weekend as Luton v Brighton has been postponed as Lutons' stadium rebuild has not quite completed yet. We didn't they just reverse the fixture so that both teams could play? No idea - seems an obvious solution to me.
Anyway here is the spreadsheet online output for the EPL in week #2
The sheet recommends :
1/ Liverpool v Bournemouth DRAW at odds of 7.00 @ 19% chance is 133% value.
2/ EVERTON to win away at Aston Villa at odds of 5.25 @ 21% chance is 110% value.
3/ CRYSTAL PALACE to beat Arsenal at odds of 6.00 @ 20% chance is 120% value
Looking at those three recommendations in order ...
Liverpool are clear favourites, and rated strongly by my sheet as a 74% win chance ... but ... Liverpool have drawn 2 or their last six home games, and all four of the wins have been by a single goal margin. That's hardly the form of a team that you want to back at a win price of just 1.20 and the draw at 7.00 DOES seem a good bet.
Everton lost a home last week so why does the sheet want to back them here? Well firstly, Aston Villa got thumped 1-5 at Newcastle so they're wobbling early on. And secondly, Everton finished last season quite well on the road with just one loss in six games. If Everton can score first then the upset is on. However, it's only rated a 21% chance, and Aston Villa won six home games on the trot at the end of last season so it's a roughy.
I hate my sheet sometimes. But when it picks an Arsenal upset on the road it's right often enough to make a profit. It's picked it seven times in the last two years, got it right twice and received 13.10 return on 7 units bet. So even as a Gooner I'll probably take it - and be happy if this bet loses.
But there are four other bets that look great value too - but not indicated so lets look at them too.
1/ MAN CITY to beat NEWCASTLE at 1.67 odds @ 80% win chance - 132% value !!
Man City seem to win everything at home - they've won their last six home games, and their last six homes against Newcastle. Newcastle are good but still no match. I think it's a good bet.
2/ WOLVES to beat Brighton at odds of 3.80 @ 36% win chance at 137% value.
The price on Wolves is very, very good and still rising. Wolves won 4 of last 6 at home, Brighton 2-0-4 last six on the road, H2H last 5 seasons have just one Wolves win. Brighton beat Luton last week - but Wolves are tougher, especially at home. I do actually have Brighton as 42% win favourites here - but the value on this game is definately with Wolves. Take it.
Also TOTTENHAM to beat Manchester United at odds of 2.88 @ 49% win chance - 141% value ?!
The value is there - if you beleive in the Spurs rating after Harry Kane's departure. I don't. Tottenham 3-1-2 last six at home, ManUtd 2-1-3 last six away, H2H here at The Lane is 1-2-3 in favour of United. Both sides were a bit average on matchday one. IF you had this game as 33% Spurs win then it's probably a fair bet - not a value one. I will NOT take it.
Finally, BRENTFORD to win at Fulham at odds of 2.60 @ win chance of 46% for 120% value.
Fulham are Ok, but home form is only average at 2-1-3 in last 6 games (two of those losses were to Man City and Arsenal though), while Brentford are 2-1-3 on the last 6 road games. I have Brentford about 1/3 of a goal better but is that enough to force the issue. This bet could be value - I would not blame you if you took it. But with five bets already marked in the EPL I will leave it alone.
So there it is - week #2 calculated and evaluated. Well make a profit with two wins, of even 1 win if it's Crystal Palace, or Bournemouth get a draw.
Good luck.
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