tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-362643472024-03-05T04:36:01.400+00:00Gooners Guide to GamblingThis is "A Guide to Gambling" and it's written by a Gooner - hence the title. <br>
Sports Betting, Poker and Casino action.Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.comBlogger1603125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-76451127245441539122024-02-14T03:58:00.006+00:002024-02-15T03:57:31.910+00:00GoonersGuide : Where Football Passion Meets Betting Expertise<h1 style="background-color: white; color: #111111; font-family: -apple-system, Roboto, SegoeUI, "Segoe UI", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft YaHei", "Meiryo UI", Meiryo, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: var(--cib-type-title2-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-title2-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-title2-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-title2-line-height); margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px !important; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><strong>GoonersGuide.com: Where Football Passion Meets Betting Expertise</strong></h1><p style="background-color: white; color: #111111; font-family: -apple-system, Roboto, SegoeUI, "Segoe UI", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft YaHei", "Meiryo UI", Meiryo, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-body2-font-variation-settings); line-height: var(--cib-type-body2-line-height); margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><em>By PJK, Football Times Contributor</em></p><hr style="background-color: white; color: #111111; font-family: -apple-system, Roboto, SegoeUI, "Segoe UI", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft YaHei", "Meiryo UI", Meiryo, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-top: 12px;" /><p style="background-color: white; font-family: -apple-system, Roboto, SegoeUI, "Segoe UI", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft YaHei", "Meiryo UI", Meiryo, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-body2-font-variation-settings); line-height: var(--cib-type-body2-line-height); margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><span style="color: #111111; font-size: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-line-height);">New York, NY</span><span style="color: #111111;"> — In the bustling world of football fandom and sports betting, there exists a digital oasis where passion converges with expertise. 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But like any seasoned midfielder adapting to changing tactics, GoonersGuide.com soon expanded its playbook.</p><h3 style="background-color: white; color: #111111; font-family: -apple-system, Roboto, SegoeUI, "Segoe UI", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft YaHei", "Meiryo UI", Meiryo, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><strong>The Playbook Unfolds: Football Tips and Beyond</strong></h3><ol style="background-color: white; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-family: -apple-system, Roboto, SegoeUI, "Segoe UI", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft YaHei", "Meiryo UI", Meiryo, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; gap: 4px; margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding-inline-start: 24px;"><li><p style="color: #111111; display: inline; font-size: var(--cib-type-body2-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-body2-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-body2-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-body2-line-height); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-line-height);">Football Predictions and Betting Insights</span>:</p><ul style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 4px; margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding-inline-start: 24px;"><li style="color: #111111;">GoonersGuide.com’s bread and butter lies in its football predictions. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, the site offers expert tips, odds comparisons, and match previews across various leagues and tournaments.</li><li><span style="color: #111111;">From the </span><a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/english-football.php"><b><span style="color: red;">English Premier League</span></b></a><span><span style="color: #111111;"> and </span><a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/german_football.php"><b><span style="color: red;">German Bundesliga</span></b></a><span style="color: #111111;"> to the </span></span><a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/uefa_football.php"><b><span style="color: red;">UEFA Champions League</span></b></a><span style="color: #111111;">, GoonersGuide.com dissects the beautiful game with surgical precision. Its team of analysts, akin to tactical coaches, scrutinizes form, injuries, and historical data to provide actionable insights.</span></li></ul></li><li><p style="color: #111111; display: inline; font-size: var(--cib-type-body2-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-body2-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-body2-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-body2-line-height); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-line-height);">The Casino Connection</span>:</p><ul style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 4px; margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding-inline-start: 24px;"><li style="color: #111111;">But wait, there’s more! GoonersGuide.com isn’t just about corner kicks and goalkeepers. It deftly straddles the line between the pitch and the bookmaker and casino floor.</li><li><span style="color: #111111;">The site’s </span><a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bookie_guide.html"><span style="color: red;"><b>bookmaker review</b></span></a><span style="color: #111111;"> and </span><a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/online-casino-reviews.html"><span style="color: red;"><b>casino review</b></span></a><a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/online-casino-reviews.html" style="color: #111111;"> </a><span style="color: #111111;">sections introduces players to a world of spinning reels, blackjack tables, and roulette wheels. 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Its forums buzz with passionate debates, tactical breakdowns, and shared victories. Imagine a virtual pub where fans from different time zones gather to dissect last night’s match or discuss the latest odds.</li><li>User-generated content is the heartbeat of GoonersGuide.com. From personal betting strategies to scouting reports on emerging talents, the community fuels the site’s dynamism.</li></ul></li></ol><h3 style="background-color: white; color: #111111; font-family: -apple-system, Roboto, SegoeUI, "Segoe UI", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft YaHei", "Meiryo UI", Meiryo, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><strong>The Evolutionary Stride: Staying Ahead of the Offside Trap</strong></h3><ol style="background-color: white; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-family: -apple-system, Roboto, SegoeUI, "Segoe UI", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft YaHei", "Meiryo UI", Meiryo, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; gap: 4px; margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding-inline-start: 24px;"><li style="color: #111111;"><p style="display: inline; font-size: var(--cib-type-body2-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-body2-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-body2-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-body2-line-height); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-line-height);">Regulation and Adaptation</span>:</p><ul style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 4px; margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding-inline-start: 24px;"><li>As the betting landscape evolved—new regulations, technological shifts, and changing user preferences—GoonersGuide.com adjusted its studs. It remained nimble, ensuring compliance while enhancing user experience.</li><li>The site’s commitment to responsible gambling echoes the ethos of a fair play referee. It educates users about bankroll management, addiction prevention, and the thrill of informed bets.</li></ul></li><li><p style="color: #111111; display: inline; font-size: var(--cib-type-body2-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-body2-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-body2-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-body2-line-height); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><span style="font-size: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-size); font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-variation-settings); font-weight: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-font-weight); line-height: var(--cib-type-subtitle2-stronger-line-height);">Global Footprint, Local Flavor</span>:</p><ul style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 4px; margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding-inline-start: 24px;"><li style="color: #111111;">GoonersGuide.com transcends borders. 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It’s where the roar of the crowd meets the rustle of betting slips. It’s where the love for the game intertwines with the thrill of a winning wager.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: -apple-system, Roboto, SegoeUI, "Segoe UI", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft YaHei", "Meiryo UI", Meiryo, "Arial Unicode MS", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-variation-settings: var(--cib-type-body2-font-variation-settings); line-height: var(--cib-type-body2-line-height); margin: 12px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><span style="color: #111111;">So, dear reader, whether you’re a seasoned bettor seeking the edge or a curious fan exploring the odds, consider </span><a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/"><b><span style="color: red;">GoonersGuide.com</span></b></a><span style="color: #111111;"> your digital matchday program. The whistle has blown, and the ball is in your court.</span></p>Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com025 Dover St, New York, NY 10038, USA40.708818699999988 -74.00080830000001740.604695745327916 -74.138137401562517 40.812941654672059 -73.863479198437517tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-23605029181437135372023-11-18T01:01:00.002+00:002023-11-18T01:02:05.313+00:00The English Premier League thinks EVERTON(?!) are financially dodgy?! And WTF is going on VAR? <b>Club football takes a break - but I've got a couple of things on my mind after reading this morning that EVERTON are apparently the money cheats of the EPL not .. MAN CITY and CHELSEA.</b>
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<B>EVERTON ARE EPL's FINANCIAL CHEATS - REALLY?</b><br>
Everton Football Club have received an immediate 10-point deduction after being found to have breached the top flight's financial rules.
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Let that sink in ... EVERTON - who have barely escaped relagation in the last two seasons - are going to be made the scapegoat and poster boy for the Engish Premier League financial rules - and have been docked 10 points.
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Everton say they have not been given clarity on how the commission reached the figure of 10 points and sources believe a sporting sanction for a technical breach on the accountancy of building their new stadium is not appropriate.
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English top-flight clubs are permitted to lose £105m over three years, and an independent commission found Everton's losses to 2021-22 amounted to £124.5m.
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Given Covid-19's impact on 1.5 of those seasons - given the fact that Everton dropped a Russian sponsorship due to Ukraine war - and given the fact that they're barely holding on - how exactly dos Everton's £19.5m really hurt anyone?
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Meanwhile MANCHESTER CITY who are facing 115 charges, and who have clearly spent outside their ability to earn for the last 10 seasons, completely imbalancing the playing field and buying success with oil money .. carry on unaffected. Their case rumbles on and on - probably waiting for the statute of limitations to expire.
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The Premier League powers that be seem to love a bit of oil money - so I guess it gets spread around ... and everyones snout is in the money bag taking their cut ??
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When it come to financial doping or financial imbalance it won't come as a shock that I reckon CHELSEA and MANCHESTER CITY are at fault - and while EVERTON might have overspent it's hardly a major issue.
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What is a major issue is that all of these "due process" calls seem to be favouring the new dirty money clubs - and do not seem to be providing a level playing field for all clubs.
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<b>AND THIS IS STILL A FOUL !! GET VAR OUT !!</b><br>
But given that the Premier League are still backing their VAR who somehow decided that THIS wasn't a foul in the final phase of oil-rich Newcastle's goal against Arsenal ... I hardly expected any better from them.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyxqZsmrepgtFfjBW18o_5ExL0SMFmSHkr8MiSirnd0GgxrJQSgIhCXScZgpw8A2yvGafspks__6Gk9tkTRmK0S6UKlmnE0sIN19Py6foTQpuG9r9ljFhEeMho_te8bAeX5UeqiwNMc55LIxznjRxKWWDkSstFN7yp3nhdPyPE3FYxEDu7LaiODw/s919/Not-a-foul.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="919" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyxqZsmrepgtFfjBW18o_5ExL0SMFmSHkr8MiSirnd0GgxrJQSgIhCXScZgpw8A2yvGafspks__6Gk9tkTRmK0S6UKlmnE0sIN19Py6foTQpuG9r9ljFhEeMho_te8bAeX5UeqiwNMc55LIxznjRxKWWDkSstFN7yp3nhdPyPE3FYxEDu7LaiODw/s320/Not-a-foul.PNG"/></a></div>
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Look I'm a simple guy. I pretty much evaluate what I see and call bullsh!t when it's bullsh!t and the "goal" above was scored due to a clear foul - and if the referee didn't see it then it's VARs job to clear it up- They did NOT do that.
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Just get VAR out of the game if they can't even rule on this clearly. I'm OK if the referee misses a foul and a goal. I played footy for 45 years since the age of five - and I get that the referee can't be everywhere.
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But VAR can be and I thought that the pay-off for putting up with 1-2 minute waits was getting things right. If VAR can't do that then let's get back to instant decisions, referee calls only, and fans reacting when goal are scored - not waiting around for 120 seconds and some law-waiving (or corrupt) twerp behind a video monitor to get it wrong.
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How much money is being paid to VAR and "INDEPENDANT" COMMISIONS to get these decisions so wrong? Inquiring minds want to know. What's your price?Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-9778425675790985502023-11-17T03:49:00.000+00:002023-11-17T03:49:04.829+00:00Thanksgiving Casino Specials at Miami Club until end of November !<b>The guys at Miami Club Casino are offering some THANKSGIVING SPECIALS for all players to enjoy over the holiday break.</b><br>
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Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-37124528978246044682023-11-16T00:54:00.000+00:002023-11-16T00:54:36.954+00:00I'm paying United States players $100 each to try Bovada Sportsbook - and tell us what they think.<B>Welcome to the annual GoonersGuide.com play-test - we need more players from the United States to help us complete our task.</b>
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If you have NEVER played at Bovada - then we want <B>YOU</B> to help us by trying them out and reviewing them. IF you help then I'll pay $100 to each player that completes the task - this offer is open to the first 10 players that contact me via PM on Facebook (SEE BELOW) or email.
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You can play Sports bets, Casino Bets, Poker or a combination of all three - it's up to you - but we need to compete our reviews by the end of November.
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<B>Join Bovada - Play Them - Review them </b><br>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcqQGNfWPY4UGRhYav05V-yTAD3DXf89KgyFMRnkKSEqKdw7CBcqnkA75kSAMcK2UW-q4O8gjqfUXoBrMsM8stDMUOJePQXr2LSR9whz-NT9zMPPa9Y6WQSfjbuHoGCdQzNrUnXfk6ClgG_bGXZvjyA230x7qDInZYmYFaoot3GlAMvzJlKVFCpw/s600/Gooners_Guide_T_Shirt.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="600" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcqQGNfWPY4UGRhYav05V-yTAD3DXf89KgyFMRnkKSEqKdw7CBcqnkA75kSAMcK2UW-q4O8gjqfUXoBrMsM8stDMUOJePQXr2LSR9whz-NT9zMPPa9Y6WQSfjbuHoGCdQzNrUnXfk6ClgG_bGXZvjyA230x7qDInZYmYFaoot3GlAMvzJlKVFCpw/s320/Gooners_Guide_T_Shirt.PNG"/></a></div>
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We need players from the United States to join our crew and help us with play-testing at Bovada - and I'm prepared to pay $100 to each of first 10 players that contact me below to claim a spot on the play-test team.
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Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-145193338083111642023-11-07T01:18:00.008+00:002023-11-07T01:18:55.236+00:00Spreadsheet Value - Midweek UEFA comps.Here are the midweek spreadsheet stats.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ6Ub9rfw4pNtNpYSNEFK6AFkoOWq1mfIt1rRD7Roy1GRls5veCWC-JQ9WJiO-Ou0G97j4llEpJgxv_a_J63Eax2VYGkjerENh3bEChqs_cUNAkVZkLVCXXfhUCsmDNDkFV1exEJq2qObinbW4a8jXaaWSG_KNeoA9Q4i-hJ742G3j_tomnhaksA/s1060/Capture13-midweek.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="366" data-original-width="1060" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ6Ub9rfw4pNtNpYSNEFK6AFkoOWq1mfIt1rRD7Roy1GRls5veCWC-JQ9WJiO-Ou0G97j4llEpJgxv_a_J63Eax2VYGkjerENh3bEChqs_cUNAkVZkLVCXXfhUCsmDNDkFV1exEJq2qObinbW4a8jXaaWSG_KNeoA9Q4i-hJ742G3j_tomnhaksA/s320/Capture13-midweek.PNG"/></a></div>
Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-14533826063848769472023-11-04T03:01:00.009+00:002023-11-04T03:04:48.745+00:00Football Value Betting - Europe - 4th to 6th November<b>No comments or discussion in the last post - so another short post.</b>
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Here is the weekend selection.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW75h_1yR8Miv7lKAwwaqNBAMmf1hHBrTxx29RAkeAm9196EmJNCnh28hB0L3oVvSH2JrACd-gX_J1OWXA5jUSg0VAFc00Dr5cwtYfx6rcxrrS3e8Jpcz4F8mSQJRkxNZQkiVxRZYIhYE3iLDKGWC1RmBecUFznMSwZfG0kIkIm0wVVju_UYuKIw/s1040/Capture12-weekend.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="1040" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW75h_1yR8Miv7lKAwwaqNBAMmf1hHBrTxx29RAkeAm9196EmJNCnh28hB0L3oVvSH2JrACd-gX_J1OWXA5jUSg0VAFc00Dr5cwtYfx6rcxrrS3e8Jpcz4F8mSQJRkxNZQkiVxRZYIhYE3iLDKGWC1RmBecUFznMSwZfG0kIkIm0wVVju_UYuKIw/s320/Capture12-weekend.PNG"/></a></div>
Eight home wins are selected as good value and five draws as well.<br><br>Can you work out how to make a profit this weekend?
<br><br>
<b>RECOMMENDED BOOKMAKER SITES : </b><BR><BR>
<B>UK : </b>
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.htm" TITLE="Bet365 UK bookmaker">Bet365</a> |
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/betfred_sports.htm" TITLE="BetFred - a top UK bookmaker">BetFred</a>
<BR><BR>
<B>USA : </b>
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bovada-sportsbook.htm" TITLE="Bovada sportsbook">Bovada</a> |
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/betonline.htm" TITLE="BetOnline sportsbook">BetOnline</a> |
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bookmaker.htm" TITLE="Bookmaker.eu - Offshore Sportsbook for US players">Bookmaker</a>
<BR><BR>
<B>CANADA : </b>
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.htm" TITLE="Bet365 UK bookmaker">Bet365</a> |
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/betonline.htm" TITLE="BetOnline sportsbook">BetOnline</a> |
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bodog_sports.htm" TITLE="Bodog sportsbook">Bodog Sports</a>
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<B>GLOBAL : </b>
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.htm" TITLE="Bet365 UK bookmaker">Bet365</a> |
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/sportbet-one.htm" TITLE="sportbet bitcoin sportsbook">SportBet</a>
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<B>AUS / NZ : </b>
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.htm" TITLE="Bet365 bookmaker">Bet365.COM.AU</a>
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<B>ASIA : </b>
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.htm" TITLE="Bet365 UK bookmaker">Bet365</a> |
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<B>CRYPTO : </B>
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bovada-sportsbook.htm" TITLE="Bovada bitcoin sportsbook">Bovada</a> |
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<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/betonline.htm" TITLE="BetOnline sportsbook">BetOnline</a> |
<a target="_top" href="https://www.goonersguide.com/sportbet-one.htm" TITLE="sportbet bitcoin sportsbook">SportBet</a>Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-27477058838119554452023-10-14T23:38:00.005+01:002023-10-14T23:40:29.039+01:00Value Bets 15th to 17th Oct - International football.THe Euro20024 qualifying chunders on - an unwanted and unwelcome break to European club football - but I've still got a stats spteadsheet with potential bettig value for you - and here is it.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj69jG9S3UmOqeIodrXBk8G2U5bajWQPC_TuKHHAQfbu3bp2PBBApz3rDGOZUHJ3OcKevOcJXzHrBNN-fqTmbnKznDA6DzBWmPAXF1WtkQ7CIb5Nm_YvoCAlVGARLoPrraBYZKNai8kp1_Mm-idoDpFHqpljq4msSNEmENHi1IfoK0DDNDe6FgwlQ/s1010/Capture10-weekend.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="1010" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj69jG9S3UmOqeIodrXBk8G2U5bajWQPC_TuKHHAQfbu3bp2PBBApz3rDGOZUHJ3OcKevOcJXzHrBNN-fqTmbnKznDA6DzBWmPAXF1WtkQ7CIb5Nm_YvoCAlVGARLoPrraBYZKNai8kp1_Mm-idoDpFHqpljq4msSNEmENHi1IfoK0DDNDe6FgwlQ/s320/Capture10-weekend.PNG"/></a></div>
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As you can see in the output of the next 3 days and 22 games there is only a handful of betting opportunities - and all of them are based on calulations involving under 100 games (because international teams don't play often) so the numbers could easily be skewed and/or just plain wrong. This means don't be betting on these games with anything more than small bets - for interest only.
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Two draws (which are always risky and no more than 40% likely at best), a home win where Belgium are avery surprising price, and a bet against Luxembourg that might be flawed because the Lux's have been over-achieving in this campaign and have improved from awful to plain ordinary.
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Good luck - and I'll see you on Thursday when we get back to club footballGoonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-22525210902916289042023-10-09T03:37:00.006+01:002023-10-09T03:39:00.455+01:00Value Bets 12th to 14 Oct - International FootballHere is the spreadsheet for midweek action in the Euro2024 Qualification matches.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZfdDtyDB1Pth-Ea7ZN9Rwjsc227k4HuhGeuXg25mNwlZctjx1a0Xly-sDi5W9cIxgoHWb5vjEP5vr5hYy9mdU7X4T0uXJ2zeNBtTolfZ97LTOcOdJ4a_FOblImfguFrXysDdNWx0IynCBovvO5RIWXxnbrLiHU2MtHRQi0k98-kaVBDpqCReY5w/s1006/Capture10-midweek.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="1006" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZfdDtyDB1Pth-Ea7ZN9Rwjsc227k4HuhGeuXg25mNwlZctjx1a0Xly-sDi5W9cIxgoHWb5vjEP5vr5hYy9mdU7X4T0uXJ2zeNBtTolfZ97LTOcOdJ4a_FOblImfguFrXysDdNWx0IynCBovvO5RIWXxnbrLiHU2MtHRQi0k98-kaVBDpqCReY5w/s320/Capture10-midweek.PNG"/></a></div>
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The sheet recommends 6 matches to bet on and all the picks look like good value choices to me. Some are a bit risky - sure - but the odds are good and some odds are even growing as people lump on the favourites instead.
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Remember it's not an exact science with all these games - there isn't enough data in some matches (note the OBS column)- for example the Netherlands v France game only has 8 previous games in Europe where the teams have been ranked similarly - but 2.80+ on a home win for the Dutch? Yes please. I just got 3.04 !!
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You also have to work out how to play angles in games like Austria v Belgium where two options are suggested. Personally? I'm taking Belgium AH+0 to get draw insurance - but each bettor will have their own risk profile and betting styles.
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Recommended bookmakers to use :<br>
<br>
USA and CANADA players can use <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/betonline.htm"><b>BETONLINE</b></a> or <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bookmaker.htm"><b>BOOKMAKER</b></a> or <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bovada-sportsbook.htm"><b>BOVADA</b></a> <br>
While <b>UK / EURO / CAN / AUS / NZ</b> can play at <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.html"><b>BET365</b></a>
<br><br>
Good luck !
Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-11559910450265441492023-10-08T04:35:00.008+01:002023-10-09T03:41:17.987+01:00Rugby World Cup : Ireland v New Zealand - France v South Africa - Southern Hemisphere final looms?<b>So the Rugby World group games are done - well the ones that matter anyway and we have our Quarter-Finals line-ups.</b>
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Let's be clear about this - there are just two quarter-finals that matter - France v South Africa, and Ireland v New Zealand - as the top four sides in the World face-off as EVERYONE knew they would over 2 years ago when the draw for this rugby world cup was completed.
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France and Ireland both won their group matches against their Southern Hemisphere rivals (New Zealand and South Africa respectively), but you cannot help to get the feeling that South Africa were very comfortable in slipping to a narrow defeat against Ireland once they knew that a loss would ensure that the Boks would avoid meeting the All Blacks in the Quarter-Finals.
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The two match-ups now favour the Southern Hemisphere sides for me, And I will not be surprised if both South Africa and New Zealand progress from the quarters, romp past weak semi-final opposition and meet in the final.
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One the other side we have Wales likely to face Argentina, while England will probably meet and beat Fiji. But these games are fairly irrelevant because the finalists will almost certainly come from the top four quarter-finalists.
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Here are my estimates of various chances in the QFs : <br>
- Wales vs Argentina (60/40)<br>
- Ireland vs New Zealand (35/65)<br>
- England vs Fiji (80/20)<br>
- France vs South Africa (35/65)
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Ireland run the very real risk of being run off their feet against New Zealand who will be very focused after several defeats in the last two years, while the Springboks will dominate posession, and territory and will likely grind the French into submission.
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If they progress a expected then I give both South Africa and New Zealand an 80%+ chance in their semi-finals. And it's only as low as 80% because of the current vagaries in rules and refereeing meaning that an early red card cannot be ruled out - and that would turn any match expectation on it's head.
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And if THAT happens a 50/50% chance against each other in the final ...
Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-63418781993088924932023-10-08T04:14:00.004+01:002023-10-08T04:14:31.715+01:00Value Bets for 8th October.<b>The value betting blogs will get shorter and shorter - unless I see comments in the posts.</b>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5Nea8deqWY9TfO3BGSsSTBX77zum1AuDwrKLONLjaS2IrZdTxCe5wh0PoMUxfEUiKqFnJvw0ZDxYqUIoT52W2fDeDPssKdHf9vgSLlyfk8Rq2eslo739k5CHjGJ01Db5nZDsdQTTNK6JRUb3F2sn8Mgvc7py7WhZko4gwBDfc-XdDaTm38QgcSA/s1021/Capture9-Sunday.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="1021" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5Nea8deqWY9TfO3BGSsSTBX77zum1AuDwrKLONLjaS2IrZdTxCe5wh0PoMUxfEUiKqFnJvw0ZDxYqUIoT52W2fDeDPssKdHf9vgSLlyfk8Rq2eslo739k5CHjGJ01Db5nZDsdQTTNK6JRUb3F2sn8Mgvc7py7WhZko4gwBDfc-XdDaTm38QgcSA/s320/Capture9-Sunday.PNG"/></a></div>
Here is Sunday's selection.
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Monza v Salernitana DRAW at 3.90 <br>
Lazio v Atalanta DRAW at 3.40 <br>
Leverkusen v Cologne DRAW at 5.50 <br>
Bayern Munich v Freiburg DRAW @ 8.50 <br>
Atl. Madrid v Real Sociedad DRAW @ 3.50 <br>
ALAVES to beat Real Betis @ 2.80 <br>
GETAFE to win at CELTA VIGO @ 4.00 <br>
GRANADA to beat Barcelona @ 7.50
Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-35706382922070669542023-10-04T05:21:00.007+01:002023-10-04T05:25:23.306+01:00Two Sports Betting Reviews for Canada - bet365 Ontario and Bodog.eu<b>What do I do during the week ? I take a regular review of the betting landscape and check out some of the best betting options out there for different countries.</b>
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This week it's Canada, and after mucking around I decided it was just time to <b><i>Get out on the blog and git'r done</i></b> - so these are the two sites that made the top two - with a preference depending on where you live.
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<b>bet365 Ontario Canada</b><br>
<a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.htm">bet365</a> is one of the top online sports betting sites and the UK-based sportsbook has entered the Ontario market in Canada as a provincially regulated Ontario sports betting sites.
<br><br>
If you're betting on North American sports, you won't be disappointed with <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.htm">bet365</a>. From the NFL and NHL to the NBA and MLB, there's never a lack of action on the sportsbook. bet365 routinely offers some of the best lines in the industry.
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Check my <A href="https://www.goonersguide.com/read_news_item.php?newsID=1275"><b>bet365 Ontario review post</b></a> on the main site.
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<b>Bodog.eu for Canada</b><br>
The <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bodog_sports.htm">Bodog.eu Sports betting website</a> was launched in 1994 by the Canadian Calvin Ayre and at it's peak in 2004, Bodog was the biggest gambling brand in Canada and a powerhouse operator internationally. Bodog is still a prime destination for Canadian punters.
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Here is what I found in my <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/read_news_item.php?newsID=1276"><b>recent check of Bodog.eu for sports betting</b></a>.
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Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-40000486776048463222023-10-03T05:45:00.003+01:002023-10-03T05:45:47.441+01:00Value Bets - 3rd /4th October in Europe<b>Good evening ladies and gents - here is a bonus round of betting action in the UEFA Champions League.</b>
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This system is a little less reliable - simply because teams play less games and there is less data to crunch which you can see in the lower number of Observations (data points) in the spreadsheet output. So with just a handful of preliminaries complete, and just one round of group games lets keep stakes for this midweek round small. Maybe 1/5th of a normal bet - so the entire group is worth just 1 normal stake - just to test the waters.
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Here is the output for all 16 group games this week.<br>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKQHyrkrxh4k4EfITlOk8iEfssiAz25aGOczrhOubISEmOayHzDtMxDfTCbmGcg1VYFHKNY4VpfBFT07SWcrPdYnx8In0jrhXBfFakwXFOEGjd-tV6YX8PaQZvm7hwqYYRxcAJ3Y8OpQMEN4wVTAQzL6stlAZf9W_zALdLNdfRXz03P64mUFz-1Q/s1060/Capture9-UCL.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="386" data-original-width="1060" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKQHyrkrxh4k4EfITlOk8iEfssiAz25aGOczrhOubISEmOayHzDtMxDfTCbmGcg1VYFHKNY4VpfBFT07SWcrPdYnx8In0jrhXBfFakwXFOEGjd-tV6YX8PaQZvm7hwqYYRxcAJ3Y8OpQMEN4wVTAQzL6stlAZf9W_zALdLNdfRXz03P64mUFz-1Q/s320/Capture9-UCL.PNG"/></a></div>
Five bets are recommended, and I personally like four of them while I wondered about Benfica I have to admit that Benfica are a chance to win as they did beat Juventus in Italy last season - so perhaps the sheet is smarter than me? ;-)
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If you’re not sure that you trust this system yet then just take each bet for $1 online. Or whatever minimum your bookie offers. We need a couple of wins to break even and/or make a profit average value suggests that we should make around 30% profit overall ... if my value ratings are good.
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USA and CANADA players can use <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/betonline.htm">BETONLINE</a> or <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bookmaker.htm">BOOKMAKER</a> or <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bovada-sportsbook.htm">BOVADA</a> <br>
While UK / EURO / CAN / AUS / NZ can play at <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.html">BET365</a>
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Good luck with your plays whichever ones you take ... and I will be back on Thursday with the weekend picks.
Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-74011109955763845402023-09-29T22:51:00.014+01:002023-09-29T23:26:56.078+01:00Selling Orcs, Ogres and Dragons at Ebay - check it out.<b>In a post that will catch some of you off-guard, I'm selling off a large portion of my collectables rather than pack them up again and shift then when I move house - and i have posted them all at Ebay.</b>
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I have Orcs, lots of Orcs, Orcs with Bows, Orcs with Axes, Orcs with War Machines, as well as a small Band of Ogres, and two Groups of Dragons.
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You can find all the individual listings here. Click the red links to visit the listing.
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<b><a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/134734369475">FOR SALE - 16 x Orc Arrer Boyz - Painted Citadel Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer</a></b><br> You are looking at 16 hand painted Citadel metal miniatures from the early 90's. These Orc archers aka "the Arrer Boyz" were designed by Kev Adams and released in 1991 for use in the Warhammer Fantasy Battle table top game. <br>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTEHCCqEMOTy2bayvzptXfNk1Bf43xJx8DF0J82kmpcL2jcoDX-pkhscoOorXZiBNaJWVSvqB5i0cxl__W4vkORhXQRiGjvpiwyipjCni1_woSlG6TokW5QF3TPq_0qDPA6o-j0q8_Wrjo5HGDhiDYmUWdfkguWz372rnmd4-OLTteLf53zHWmdA/s1360/R-16-Orc-Archers.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="418" data-original-width="1360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTEHCCqEMOTy2bayvzptXfNk1Bf43xJx8DF0J82kmpcL2jcoDX-pkhscoOorXZiBNaJWVSvqB5i0cxl__W4vkORhXQRiGjvpiwyipjCni1_woSlG6TokW5QF3TPq_0qDPA6o-j0q8_Wrjo5HGDhiDYmUWdfkguWz372rnmd4-OLTteLf53zHWmdA/s320/R-16-Orc-Archers.PNG"/></a></div>
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<b><a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/134734399806">FOR SALE - 18 x Orc Axes - Painted Citadel / Marauder Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer</a></b><br> You are looking at 18 hand painted Marauder metal miniatures from the early 90's. These Orc Warriors aka "the Boyz" were designed by Kev Adams and released in 1991 for use in the Warhammer Fantasy Battle table top game. <br>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLvWo53J6BHuXHwZLyZ6jyqzF6-TSSVAPHfiB-zeB_YkfHmxfz6igM_8ITaQk-ubSsMDT6rQAKK5io7UKBL4UXza1cNOBS-zaqvnMN-ecHF9BN8ApjhmmDlV5g0GIu4tVgmn79O-G4ZkNo8S3cJogcReSfhMeaWVktwT_3iMQgNVYNPBzmoGcCtg/s1319/R-18-Armoured-Orcs.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="1319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLvWo53J6BHuXHwZLyZ6jyqzF6-TSSVAPHfiB-zeB_YkfHmxfz6igM_8ITaQk-ubSsMDT6rQAKK5io7UKBL4UXza1cNOBS-zaqvnMN-ecHF9BN8ApjhmmDlV5g0GIu4tVgmn79O-G4ZkNo8S3cJogcReSfhMeaWVktwT_3iMQgNVYNPBzmoGcCtg/s320/R-18-Armoured-Orcs.PNG"/></a></div>
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<b><a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/134735451807">FOR SALE - 12 x Black Orcs (RR18)- Painted Citadel Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer</a></b> <br>Here is a classic 12 figure unit of Black Orcs, hand-painted and battle-tested Citadel Miniatures from the mid 1980's for the Warhammer fantasy battle table top game. Known as RR18 Eeza Ugezod's Mother Crushers Black Orcs. <br>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi5Cgizqxkf6-iDO6lL2K5M_FkUMWzwbz5X1SxX4CbjNTDFJ7ERXydDhJrVY-EzRlJKOW8dtBEVMwNvUoA4KwdDu0nDc93mbCzXARbxgiFiEALRUqtoduWIXijHyE6yWMntP36g3JReldFfA8jaVPxU0PO5uzOlKWECXDLJ1Mfpsvr3HnOusgz4Q/s1510/Black-Orcs-Nick-Lund-front.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="1510" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi5Cgizqxkf6-iDO6lL2K5M_FkUMWzwbz5X1SxX4CbjNTDFJ7ERXydDhJrVY-EzRlJKOW8dtBEVMwNvUoA4KwdDu0nDc93mbCzXARbxgiFiEALRUqtoduWIXijHyE6yWMntP36g3JReldFfA8jaVPxU0PO5uzOlKWECXDLJ1Mfpsvr3HnOusgz4Q/s320/Black-Orcs-Nick-Lund-front.PNG"/></a></div>
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<b><a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/134734353657">FOR SALE - 17 x Ruglud's Armoured Orcs (RRD5) - Raw Citadel Metal Figures for Warhammer</a></b> <br>These Orc boyz aka "Ruglud's Armoured Orcs" were designed by Kev Adams and released as a Regiment of Reknown in 1988 for use in the Warhammer Fantasy Battle table top game. These are in excellent condition and are now Out of Production and bring any Orc army a good fighting unit. <br>
<a href=""><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi19rsWm6C5l0XZbAA9UPCIjn7FUJnVo-DioqFNQ0YpMjewdpMkKG8mGA5O1PG6-Df0z40bKIMSnYERtsVj7R4v8JSRdN4WJFLOu3nLGsgDz0R17ogV2pGMjxISpSTT-44WmSm_yn5SjYghZFFLenNXO0YoRpm66Y-EzEzHEYkbSekhdgPCNShe7A/s1101/R-17-Rudruk-Armoured-Orcs.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="783" data-original-width="1101" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi19rsWm6C5l0XZbAA9UPCIjn7FUJnVo-DioqFNQ0YpMjewdpMkKG8mGA5O1PG6-Df0z40bKIMSnYERtsVj7R4v8JSRdN4WJFLOu3nLGsgDz0R17ogV2pGMjxISpSTT-44WmSm_yn5SjYghZFFLenNXO0YoRpm66Y-EzEzHEYkbSekhdgPCNShe7A/s320/R-17-Rudruk-Armoured-Orcs.PNG"/></a></div></a>
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<b><a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/134735750773">FOR SALE - Orc Bolt Thrower - Hand Painted Warhammer Citadel Metal Miniature Figures</a></b> <br>Up for grabs is an Orc war machine and crew which are second hand Citadel Miniatures from 1988-1991 for the Warhammer fantasy battle table top game. These war machines gave the greenskins some ranged weapons to hit the massed human or stunty ranks.
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<b><a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/134735756526">FOR SALE - Orc Rock Chukka - Hand Painted Citadel Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer</a></b> <br> Another Orc war machine and crew which are second hand Citadel Miniatures from 1988-1991 for the Warhammer fantasy battle table top game. These war machines gave the greenskins some ranged weapons to hit the massed human or stunty ranks.
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<b><a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/134735440564">FOR SALE - 5 Ogres (RR8) - Hand Painted Citadel Warhammer Metal Miniature Figures</a></b> <br> You are looking at 5 hand painted Citadel miniatures known as Golfag's Other Regiment of Mercenary Ogres (RR12) who were released in 1987 for the Games Workshop Warhammer table top game. <br>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcb-xgnI5HibM0STFOn0u5bznT7LzzpnUiHKk1ekuRj9j2e4Yp62XHl54RTmF8Uc0xSe-bWRjV_5-KUAsxZ4zjptz42cgNs-YlhF5sfoketw4uFOrBT-FvjQYQpgbyjbltKbU13dro0OTP-go_fd0XFdbugb-2GoVCiAIuz8G5TAFnP28ecaS4WQ/s1326/R-5-Ogres.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="1326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcb-xgnI5HibM0STFOn0u5bznT7LzzpnUiHKk1ekuRj9j2e4Yp62XHl54RTmF8Uc0xSe-bWRjV_5-KUAsxZ4zjptz42cgNs-YlhF5sfoketw4uFOrBT-FvjQYQpgbyjbltKbU13dro0OTP-go_fd0XFdbugb-2GoVCiAIuz8G5TAFnP28ecaS4WQ/s320/R-5-Ogres.PNG"/></a></div>
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<b><a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/134742377594">Emerging Green Dragon from egg from Windstone Editions US - circa 1984 – Sculptor Melody Pena</a></b> <br> Here is a Green Empress Dragon (the best color) emerging out of her egg as sculpted by celebrated artist Melody Pena. This girl is nearly 40 years old, created in 1984 by the crew at Windstone editions.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikJXav9MGFZZfhJ4b6aHY9hTO5QuKX6xrOehxnrcV9zS1_IrqDKtFFwnVCaVCCFowHHFxE-WvXllkOXuvtqvpmRsoD74vEAeo5tKKQVMqD_Fp616t95PF-jluTPXevLEZmUo8SJy_uk12SBB2rV3M0wZ6VSKxydmPig8SpA4TIY1vSC_P9i3gQrw/s815/Windstone-Hatching-1.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" height="320" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="682" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikJXav9MGFZZfhJ4b6aHY9hTO5QuKX6xrOehxnrcV9zS1_IrqDKtFFwnVCaVCCFowHHFxE-WvXllkOXuvtqvpmRsoD74vEAeo5tKKQVMqD_Fp616t95PF-jluTPXevLEZmUo8SJy_uk12SBB2rV3M0wZ6VSKxydmPig8SpA4TIY1vSC_P9i3gQrw/s320/Windstone-Hatching-1.PNG"/></a></div>
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<b><a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/134741769205">FOR SALE - 3 Enchantica Dragons - Snappa Plays Ball, Snappa Finds a Collar, Snappa Climbs</a></b> <br> We have 3 versions of "Snappa" the young dragon from the Enchantica range for sale.<br>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQFk8lrOK087d5SM2QX3lOV3pT8zHzWpSZ7zWAqjbhgieouo8wN1rjmnerbAy3iOQ4YlTMntPRgehHXsym3zxHpW7C-6h7JdyGXN7hJ4P8uP3cbaSDRJlOqgFcvGl_sTYB9Fe6-gEYLZ0w76NqzDC16sjkj7UmdTWYPAVs7OCSui0ObKJz_JBXWw/s1143/Echantica-Three-Drags.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQFk8lrOK087d5SM2QX3lOV3pT8zHzWpSZ7zWAqjbhgieouo8wN1rjmnerbAy3iOQ4YlTMntPRgehHXsym3zxHpW7C-6h7JdyGXN7hJ4P8uP3cbaSDRJlOqgFcvGl_sTYB9Fe6-gEYLZ0w76NqzDC16sjkj7UmdTWYPAVs7OCSui0ObKJz_JBXWw/s320/Echantica-Three-Drags.PNG"/></a></div>
Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-6573211202371417062023-09-29T04:28:00.007+01:002023-09-29T04:31:36.083+01:00Value Bets 29th Sept to 2nd Oct <b>Afternoon - ladies and gents - thanks for coming back for another weekend of value betting.</b>
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From now on - the analysis is going to be different. I will show you the output - outline the recommended bets - and then leave it as that. If you want to as questions you can find my <b>GoonersGuide Betting Blog<a href="https://goonersguideblog.blogspot.com"></a></b> here at and I'm happy to discuss.
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Here is the output for all four leagues ...
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMDs_8TPvUWAdrK6v-je4w1e8ifFixtaKBV6gyltDisERRkpQQAs0mwI_ySRRNPv5-ed__TY1O074JPBLvQoUoB-3CHUYGJY6TzKCfMO21GkWTTjhpLIZ3AHLglUSU7DB7jEmw7emJlBAZgQJ32l2C0GmAHsrdeQ3FqApHW7U4HuxJo9USbDr_nA/s1044/Capture8-wkend.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1044" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMDs_8TPvUWAdrK6v-je4w1e8ifFixtaKBV6gyltDisERRkpQQAs0mwI_ySRRNPv5-ed__TY1O074JPBLvQoUoB-3CHUYGJY6TzKCfMO21GkWTTjhpLIZ3AHLglUSU7DB7jEmw7emJlBAZgQJ32l2C0GmAHsrdeQ3FqApHW7U4HuxJo9USbDr_nA/s320/Capture8-wkend.PNG"/></a></div>
I said I wouldn’t do match analysis - so I won’t.
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But I will discuss the general concepts of value betting again, and this weekends bets in particular. The concept is simple, bet where the payout is better than the chances of winning suggest. It does not matter whether you think the individual bet will win this time, because over the course of the football season you will get rewards.
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If you’re not sure that you trust this system yet then just take each bet for $1 online. Or whatever minimum your bookie offers.
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USA and CANADA players can use <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/betonline.htm">BETONLINE</a> or <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bookmaker.htm">BOOKMAKER</a> or <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bovada-sportsbook.htm">BOVADA</a><br>
UK / EURO / CAN / AUS / NZ can play at <a href="https://www.goonersguide.com/bet365.htm">BET365</a>
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Track the results. See what you make of it. I understand it takes time to bet with confidence.
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I have made profits in 23 of the last 25 seasons betting like this - and each of the last TEN seasons straight. I’m confident which is why I publish this advisory page. But not every bet will win. In fact only about 25-35% of bets will. And most punters cannot handle that.
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Overall we will make money - at least that is always my aim.
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For this weekend we have six win bets, and we need three winners for a profit - or for Wolves to pull of a shock.
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We also have six draw bets, and here the prices are better so we need two draws or better to make a profit.
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If you cannot get these prices at your bookie, if the odds are considerably lower, then do NOT take the bet. if the prices are higher then that’s because everyone else is rushing to back the favourites - thank your lucky stars - and then take the better odds.
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Good luck - and mayben I will see you next weekend ?<br>
;-)
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Cheers !!!<br>
Paul (The Gooner)Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-43312593296300399832023-09-26T04:18:00.001+01:002023-09-26T04:18:10.778+01:00ESP - 26th- 28th Sep 2023 - Value Bets in La Liga¡Hola de nuevo! Let's look at Spain's midweek La Liga schedule and find some betting action.
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Here is the sheet output - for the upcoming mid-week :
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOgLKBs8Vszrh8wA7-5MFnd0aYiFuvr2xSAAsPbPSuX6fA7CxMRxVteE3PF3zJvwxKLRxcZk1N0y61_QJioyydl01ZOr2R3hleOSKVtp1CusF3f8PCzwpPKI7BtBJW4-KHdExWtKdVWCZO4V430WBqZbpa9DA-yt7gm3iVFFmfq28maOL5orBISA/s813/Capture7-ESP.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="813" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOgLKBs8Vszrh8wA7-5MFnd0aYiFuvr2xSAAsPbPSuX6fA7CxMRxVteE3PF3zJvwxKLRxcZk1N0y61_QJioyydl01ZOr2R3hleOSKVtp1CusF3f8PCzwpPKI7BtBJW4-KHdExWtKdVWCZO4V430WBqZbpa9DA-yt7gm3iVFFmfq28maOL5orBISA/s320/Capture7-ESP.PNG"/></a></div>
The spreadsheet likes two bets in midweek :<br>
1/ MALLORCA to win or draw vs Barcelona at odds of 2.50 with 50% chance for 125% value.<br>
2/ REAL SOCIEDAD to win at Valenica at odds of 2.90 with 43% chance for 125% value.
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Let’s take a look at it now.
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Barcelona are doing what Barcelona do. Winning games and sitting on top of the table. But on the road they've already had a draw and the other two games were won by a single goal. Betting on Barca to win at 1.55 is silly. Poor value. But opposing them at 2.50 is a good play.
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In the second match, the sheet likes Real Sociedad to beat Valencia. It not an obvious pick, but we have R.Sociedad as slightly stronger and a database of previous results that says they're 43% likely. So the price is right. And so we take it.
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And that's it. Two bets and again we need one to hit to make an overall profit.
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Good Luck.Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-57479841844305069112023-09-26T04:04:00.007+01:002023-09-26T04:04:36.004+01:00ISA - 26th to 28th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie ACiao bella! Let's quickly go through the Serie A matches in midweek looking for value bets.
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Here is the sheet output for 26th-28th September.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQPLQFn5TrOOPRZYfOojoiha5-EaepEfplPEa4phuP8is46AhQNESLc6hveN-osShhRhzIFiWnT4hohYlz9pS-D59ogtZMMgXKZa5zrO7a17mWGXhl7BvA3nZhr9bVCDxHIoDUEqhltG1doE5EPcBcrSLu_kZebvVWy78aj1gsFhDxciTwM4Ru6g/s797/Capture7-ISA.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="224" data-original-width="797" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQPLQFn5TrOOPRZYfOojoiha5-EaepEfplPEa4phuP8is46AhQNESLc6hveN-osShhRhzIFiWnT4hohYlz9pS-D59ogtZMMgXKZa5zrO7a17mWGXhl7BvA3nZhr9bVCDxHIoDUEqhltG1doE5EPcBcrSLu_kZebvVWy78aj1gsFhDxciTwM4Ru6g/s320/Capture7-ISA.PNG"/></a></div>
We’ve got two bets to consider in midweek :<br>
1/ Empoli and Salernitana to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 33% chance for 106% value.<br>
2/ ROMA to win at Genoa at odds of 2.20 with 42% chance for just 92% value.
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The Empoli v Salernitana draw is clear - it's not a sure thing at all at 33% - but with both sides already close to the bottom it will be a case of defence first and a 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 or 1-1 score line looks likely. The draw is a good value bet.
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The second bet is to take AS Roma to beat Genoa, which is not at quite fair value, but the spreadsheet is recommending, probably influenced by the fact that AS Roma have won this fixture in each of the last 3 seasons. Take the bet.
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And that’s it. Short and sweet. Two bets and we only need one to win to collect a profit.
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Buona fortuna, amiciGoonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-79492316405067389382023-09-22T22:35:00.011+01:002023-09-22T22:35:53.587+01:00EPL - 23rd-24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in English Premier LeagueLet's head off to England and take a look at the Premier League for the latest round - and find a wee bit of value.
Here is the sheet output for this week.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmb_curvtGLZ6rnZDyduCD57U8gkTeXHjgmBrnvnMz01NvyvjyOrpqFhnotZ1CzJGT1gmDKaRngBfqr8vano8cGvBQG07-mWhPXPhIyf3stKPOE0yx1nI0N9b8UIAgJmJIrreNoO1FkMd505IrVc6OAlg8INwZl3a0f1F3BqSbQlmFlEVc4VMpdg/s839/Capture6-EPL.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="221" data-original-width="839" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmb_curvtGLZ6rnZDyduCD57U8gkTeXHjgmBrnvnMz01NvyvjyOrpqFhnotZ1CzJGT1gmDKaRngBfqr8vano8cGvBQG07-mWhPXPhIyf3stKPOE0yx1nI0N9b8UIAgJmJIrreNoO1FkMd505IrVc6OAlg8INwZl3a0f1F3BqSbQlmFlEVc4VMpdg/s320/Capture6-EPL.PNG"/></a></div>
The spreadsheet has four bets indicated - and we will do a bit of tweaking.<br>
1/ Man City and Nottingham to draw at odds of 8.50 with 18% chance for 153% value rating<br>
2/ BURNLEY to beat Man United at odds of 4.40 with 33% chance and 145% value.<br>
3/ Brighton and Bournemouth to draw at odds of 5.25 with 26% chance for 137% value.<br>
4/ SHEFFIELD UTD to beat Newcastle Utd at odds of 7.50 with 25% chance for 188% value.
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So how do the bets stack up? Lets examine the numbers.
<br><br>
Manchester City are winning everything. But they played in the Champions League in midweek and frankly a hic-cup is due. Nottingham Forest have lost at Arsenal and Man Utd by 1 goal each time and won 1-0 at Chelsea. So they're a good underdog candidate. The system actually picked an away win (6%) at 19.00 - but I'd modify to a draw or draw/away to improve the chances of collecting.
<br><br>
Next is BURNLEY to beat Manchester United at 4.40 and the odds are still climbing. Personally I think that ManYoo have been unlucky on the road, and are due a win - and they do seem to win here at Turf Moor with 5 wins in the last six trips. However the stats say of 123 previously similar games (statistically) this result likelihood is dead even at 33% for Home win, 33% for Draw, 33% for away win. Perhaps a bet on home / draw to maximise chances again.
<br><br>
Our 3rd pick is a draw with Bournemouth to hold Brighton. The Seagulls have been on fire with a 4-0-1 record and they look good but a midweek loss in Europe is both tiring and confidence shaking and Bournemouth have managed a draw in 3 of their first 5 EPL fixtures. the 26% chance feels about right - so 4.00 would be fair and 5.25+ is a steal at good value. And THAT is our game.
<br><br>
Finally, would it really be a major shock if travel weary Newcastle (played in Italy in midweek) were beaten by Sheffield United?? It's only a 25% chance - but Newcastle have already lost 2 away games in the EPL this season and the price is too good to ignore.
<br><br>
1/ Man City and Nottingham to draw / away at odds of 5.75 with 24% chance for 138% value rating<br>
2/ BURNLEY to win / draw v Man United at odds of 2.15 with 66% chance and 141% value.<br>
3/ Brighton and Bournemouth to draw at odds of 5.25 with 26% chance for 137% value.<br>
4/ SHEFFIELD UTD to beat Newcastle Utd at odds of 7.50 with 25% chance for 188% value.
<br><br>
So there we have it - four bets - and hopefully a profit.Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-77528841222646009412023-09-22T22:04:00.002+01:002023-09-22T22:04:25.522+01:00ESP - 22nd - 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Spain's La Liga¡Hola de nuevo! Let's look at Spain to examine the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.
<br><br>
Here is the sheet output - for the weekend and upcoming mid-week :
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr1UriojkPpLZPBvPZPJKIJz4xyrVuA0vQF8xLO-X7cQmqiH-_KR95pFGLrwaTKn1BN9T3IkUE1_T49Kt0l2H6zrnW7CPgryfmWJuWNzYAswu5qM-QsXh7FBXtZ_yxiXn1Jzmryjb3-W-8xZRch05FkVX26fUdiBF7Q6GWlOtUYx2B748K2U2FrQ/s817/Capture6-ESP.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="817" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr1UriojkPpLZPBvPZPJKIJz4xyrVuA0vQF8xLO-X7cQmqiH-_KR95pFGLrwaTKn1BN9T3IkUE1_T49Kt0l2H6zrnW7CPgryfmWJuWNzYAswu5qM-QsXh7FBXtZ_yxiXn1Jzmryjb3-W-8xZRch05FkVX26fUdiBF7Q6GWlOtUYx2B748K2U2FrQ/s320/Capture6-ESP.PNG"/></a></div>
The spreadsheet likes just one bet on the weekend at perceived good value :<br>
1/ ALMERIA to beat Valencia at odds of 2.90 with 43% chance for 125% value rating.
<br><br>
Let’s take a look at it now.
<br><br>
Let's just say that it's a bet that ONLY a spreadsheet could love. Almeria are rock bottom of La Liga with an 0-1-4 record and there is little sign of a home win coming. They might win. But even though the current price is good value I'd want a wee bit more before I take a team at the bottom of the league to get their first win. A bet to avoid.
<br><br>
And that's it. One bet highlighted by the spreadsheet and I've rubbished it. Everything else is well priced by the bookies - which is actually a good sign that the "spreadie" has accurately evaluated this round because the bookies agree with it. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all.
<br><br>
I'll be back on Monday afternoon to look at all the midweek action.
<br><br>
Good Luck.Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-88614240301345760382023-09-22T21:42:00.002+01:002023-09-22T21:42:24.181+01:00GBL - 22nd - 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in German BundesligaHallo meine freunde, join me as we look for good Bundesliga bets this weekend.
<br><br>
We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSQMyHNLOjaxFmqXDuCjDoFeWa8qIPKgx93bUFqMDaIy3DgnWZUi_9pMJ6W8FdONlPuitm6e-18JulKe8H-Mbaejywb85KuOmHv6Azh5uf_ERo0fge6KoDwPc24Hdr8C-z2JUGpjzZgkRUGNIvgcFTue0MHDlApgxXrx9Vtje0fEofveSLG6Wvgw/s839/Capture6-GBL.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="204" data-original-width="839" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSQMyHNLOjaxFmqXDuCjDoFeWa8qIPKgx93bUFqMDaIy3DgnWZUi_9pMJ6W8FdONlPuitm6e-18JulKe8H-Mbaejywb85KuOmHv6Azh5uf_ERo0fge6KoDwPc24Hdr8C-z2JUGpjzZgkRUGNIvgcFTue0MHDlApgxXrx9Vtje0fEofveSLG6Wvgw/s320/Capture6-GBL.PNG"/></a></div>
We've got have four games to look at - 3 home wins and a very unlikely draw : <br>
1/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat RB Leipzig at odds of 5.00 with 34% chance for 179% value<br>
2/ DORTMUND to beat Wolfsburg at odds of 1.73 with 69% chance for 119% value.<br>
3/ UNION BERLIN to win at Hoffenheim at odds of 2.05 with 57% chance for 117% value.<br>
4/ Leverkusen v Heidenheim to DRAW at odds of 6.50 with 20% chance for 130% value
<br><br>
However, there are a couple of things that mean not all bets are sound.
<br><br>
Two of the home wins are clear enough as both DORTMUND and UNION BERLIN are solid favourites and being priced quite highly. This is probably due to the midweek Champions League games that both sides have had to play, and it's something thatr the sheet does not factor in. Still both bets are sound and should be taken.
<br><br>
The next pick of MONCHENGLADBACH is riskier and with a far higher potential reward. Leipzig are the better side, and even my sheet has Leipzig as favourites to win, but the odds being offered on the home side - who have won this fixture in EACH of the last three seasons - mean that the value and therefore our betting eye must be on the home side.
<br><br>
The final pick is a potential draw between Leverkusen and Heidenheim at a very tasty price of 6.50. It's only a 20% chance - but Heidenheim have already drawn 2-2 at Dortmund this season paying out at a price of 7.00 so there is some logic to the sheets pick. It's up to you whether you take this or not.
<br><br>
One other related note is that there is even more potential value in a draw between Bayern Munich and Bochum which pays 11.00 (!!) but is only 14% likely. In analysis of these unlikely draws the sheet has determined that chasing value below about 17-18% likelihood just does not payout often enough to keep punters happy. So this draw is not recommended. And you are taking your chances with the other one too.
<br><br>
So three home win bets - and I do like them all. Two potential value draws - maybe one is worth chasing? Your call.Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-91661092302724720842023-09-22T21:19:00.004+01:002023-09-22T21:19:43.509+01:00ISA - 22nd to 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie ACiao bella! Grab an coffee let's quickly stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for value bets.
<BR><BR>
Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :<BR>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVSt0c9bRnJd6FPMWgALdstlDNCiiL_9hZ_yMaUOoWvnibDyWtvabybL8Jl4jO1WPclA8QBAnlid9hBxKDUATwb1UAD-0B7d_tvT3pVdn54GaUJUMrqlqA-byiFlpwua6Gu-N-aFmHAEgoxtoOn2xp0JSdqjOFYHB3IsFM_mWqI0J158TyyWiuVg/s795/Capture6-ISA.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="795" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVSt0c9bRnJd6FPMWgALdstlDNCiiL_9hZ_yMaUOoWvnibDyWtvabybL8Jl4jO1WPclA8QBAnlid9hBxKDUATwb1UAD-0B7d_tvT3pVdn54GaUJUMrqlqA-byiFlpwua6Gu-N-aFmHAEgoxtoOn2xp0JSdqjOFYHB3IsFM_mWqI0J158TyyWiuVg/s320/Capture6-ISA.PNG"/></a></div>
Note that this sheet show the weekend and midweek next week - but we will be focusing on the weekend in this briefing.
<BR><BR>
We’ve got three bets on offer this weekend :<BR>
1/ Salernitana and Frosinone to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 34% chance for 109% value.<BR>
2/ Lecce and Genoa to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 34% chance for 109% value.<BR>
3/ Lazio and Monza to DRAW at odds of 3.80 with 28% chance for 106% value.
<BR><BR>
The draws are straight forward enough to see, even if the Lazio v Monza one is a bit dodgy, and at these prices if we get one draw then we show a profit.
<BR><BR>
A note about 3 away win picks shown on the sheet (games with the “-” symbol in V1 column), all are reasonable picks, but all come in at about 97-99% which is NOT quite value. If you can get a better price than the one shown then they’re worth taking.
<BR><BR>
And that’s it. Three bets to choose from - if you take two of them you only need one to win to collect a profit. I’ll take all three.
<BR><BR>
Buona fortuna, amiciGoonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-22563541545861764462023-09-14T23:10:00.002+01:002023-09-14T23:10:10.433+01:00ESP - 16th-18th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Spain's La Liga<b>¡Hola de nuevo! We will start this weekend's value hunt with a trip to Spain to examine the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.</b>
<br><br>
Here is the sheet output.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhF-ftpdCTe_6TFzcH_ArqzKs5NWcbPFRFp5L254IYTR7jOsck-xqnBVGhhd2AmiRgnXeHMvP_PzlCd-WaquQ0YjdhIdaGtyGnnae2BFZGn3dSawiS43esi-yxYhFqN6w5VNtGuvHaVR259D_aNCVxOkI3s4dhEC99zs-J6QE0m9ps6opEJOtd_A/s816/Capture5-ESP.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="172" data-original-width="816" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhF-ftpdCTe_6TFzcH_ArqzKs5NWcbPFRFp5L254IYTR7jOsck-xqnBVGhhd2AmiRgnXeHMvP_PzlCd-WaquQ0YjdhIdaGtyGnnae2BFZGn3dSawiS43esi-yxYhFqN6w5VNtGuvHaVR259D_aNCVxOkI3s4dhEC99zs-J6QE0m9ps6opEJOtd_A/s320/Capture5-ESP.PNG"/></a></div>
The spreadsheet likes one bet at perceived good value : <br>
1/ MALLORCA to win at Celta Vigo at odds of 4.20 with 27% chance for 109% value rating.
<br><br>
And also one bet even though it’s not good value ?<br>
2/ Sevilla and Las Palmas to draw at 4.00 with 21% chance for 84% value rating ?! WTF?
<br><br>
Let’s take a look at both bets now.
<br><br>
Firstly, MALLORCA winning at Celta Vigo isn’t an outrageous idea. The last six occurrences of this fixture have gone 2 HW, 2 Draws, 2 AW, and Celta Vigo have lost both home games so far in this seasons campaign so they’re ripe for picking. The problem is that Mallorca are not a great road team and have failed to win at Granada or Las Palmas already this season - and both those opponents are probably weaker than Celta Vigo. So it’s a weak bet even if its good value.
<br><br>
The second bet is a draw flagged up by one of the old DV systems. It’s a system with a +10% yield even with these low value punts but it’s 0-2 so far this season. I don’t like it - I suspect that Sevilla will eke out a 1-0 win here. So I won’t take it.
<br><br>
So of the two spreadsheet identified bets - I’m taking neither of them.
<br><br>
But if you must bet on La Liga this weekend - you could try a tenner on these three :<br>
1/ Real Madrid and Real Sociedad to draw at odds of 4.00 with 32% chance for 128% value.<br>
2/ REAL BETIS to win at Barcelona at odds of 8.50 with 17% chance for 144% value.<br>
3/ CADIZ to win at Bilbao at odds of 7.00 with 24% chance for 168% value.
<br><br>
All three bets are on underdogs - and the prices are still going up so you can wait to get even better value. Don’t expect all three bets to win but if one of them comes in then we are in profit and I think that it’s a coin toss that will happen.
<br><br>
Good Luck.Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-49944281147061146232023-09-14T01:20:00.002+01:002023-09-14T01:20:20.051+01:00ISA - 16th to 18th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie ACiao bella! Grab an espresso and join me in a stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for value bets.
<br><br>
Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB-NXj43kRud8mI3oBZ9YNLfxnrr0D6_VYvEXtvSmcXK57ViAH1KjhHq5WuzexlQf5W0faV5uOIMwAT5-ER8c44cBjWYjgJABTvCofJIyL9Jp5Egi7uj9RtGopXDD1vw23oCmBrcAQLAWSIIw0F3U8zMODCSYIevq5HlxiZkDEv9EeUB6zF7KPXQ/s792/Capture5-ISA.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="190" data-original-width="792" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB-NXj43kRud8mI3oBZ9YNLfxnrr0D6_VYvEXtvSmcXK57ViAH1KjhHq5WuzexlQf5W0faV5uOIMwAT5-ER8c44cBjWYjgJABTvCofJIyL9Jp5Egi7uj9RtGopXDD1vw23oCmBrcAQLAWSIIw0F3U8zMODCSYIevq5HlxiZkDEv9EeUB6zF7KPXQ/s320/Capture5-ISA.PNG"/></a></div>
We've got three bets on offer this weekend :<br>
1/ CAGLIARI to beat Udinese at odds of 2.88 with 42% chance for 121% value.<br>
2/ FIORENTINA to beat Atalanta at odds of 2.40 with 45% chance for 108% value.<br>
3/ EMPOLI to win or draw at AS Roma are odds of 2.75 with 41% chance for 113% value.
<br><br>
Both Cagliari (H 1-0-5) and Udinese (A 0-1-5) have awful home /away form. Udinese are slightly stronger, but with home advantage we favour Cagliari as 42% likely to eke out a win.
<br><br>
Fiorentina at home are always a tough task, and the sheet likes them as 45% chance to win, so the price of 2.40 is worth taking.
<br><br>
Finally, while AS Roma will probably finally get a win this season, getting paid nearly 3.00 betting against a team that is 0-1-2 to not win is a pretty good bet to consider.
<br><br>
And that's it. Three bets to choose from - if you take two of them you only need one to win to collect a profit. I'll take all three.
<br><br>
Buona fortuna, amiciGoonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-8150279162436425172023-09-14T00:40:00.002+01:002023-09-14T01:20:52.765+01:00EPL - 16th-18th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in English Premier LeagueThen we head off to England and take a look at the Premier League for round five - and find a wee bit of value.
<br><br>
Here is the sheet output for this week.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiRqHSc5Vgf1aKf5Ux_iOs-p49qZxVywjENjnSNpAPydtUKX4QgFafjXpVAgomcHs4iwFO40XYGeK0ZK_e4BOguAjZZ2Z-HkvhxJuxn31-GxREebaKLU7UM2wP-LYzYZ8ly-TYGDHADCpoJUZ4FdhB_I8kQljam8W9Nq9ozMLYNwGQSTT6GM-sNA/s802/Capture5-EPL.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="186" data-original-width="802" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiRqHSc5Vgf1aKf5Ux_iOs-p49qZxVywjENjnSNpAPydtUKX4QgFafjXpVAgomcHs4iwFO40XYGeK0ZK_e4BOguAjZZ2Z-HkvhxJuxn31-GxREebaKLU7UM2wP-LYzYZ8ly-TYGDHADCpoJUZ4FdhB_I8kQljam8W9Nq9ozMLYNwGQSTT6GM-sNA/s320/Capture5-EPL.PNG"/></a></div>
The spreadsheet has four bets indicated - including opposing my team Arsenal again !! : <br>
1/ Tottenham and Sheffield United to draw at odds of 5.75 with 22% chance for 127% value rating<br>
2/ BRENTFORD to win at Newcastle at odds of 6.50 with 26% chance and 169% value.<br>
3/ BOURNEMOUTH to beat Chelsea at odds of 4.75 with 36% chance for 171% value.<br>
4/ EVERTON to beat Arsenal at odds of 6.00 with 18% chance for 108% value.
<br><br>
So do the bets stack up? Lets take a look
<br><br>
Tottenham have started life very well under their new manager, and should be favoured to win, but Sheffield United are not too far off the pace with 3 1-goal losses and a 2-2 draw against Everton last time out. A home win is almost 70% likely but the price is awful. You can get 6.00 now on the draw - even better than my sheet numbers. I'll be taking it.
<br><br>
Next up is BRENTFORD to shock at Newcastle. I expected more from the Geordies who have lost 3 of their first 4 games, and Brentford are unbeaten in their first 4 games - so I can see this happening. I'll take the bet but may add in a little bet on the draw as well for some insurance.
<br><br>
BOURNEMOUTH beating Chelsea seems reasonable to me, and at odds approaching 5.00 it's one that has to be taken. Clearly Chelsea have the more expensive squad, and are probably half a goal better, but home advantage counts and my stats suggest that in 115 previously similar games the home team won almost as often as the away side (36% to 39%). So I'll take the team offering a good payout.
<br><br>
Finally, the bet I hate - but have to admit I see why it's recommended is EVERTON to beat Arsenal. Everton are not good but they've won this fixture on 4 of the last five occasions- either 2-1 or 1-0. Arsenal are not playing that well but still have a 60% chance of winning at Goodison Park. But the value is definitely with Everton at 6.00
<br><br>
OK. That's four bets in the EPL for the weekend. One winner and we are in profit.
Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-71804674191462603072023-09-13T23:34:00.007+01:002023-09-14T01:21:26.461+01:00GBL - 15th-17th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in German BundesligaHallo meine freunde, join me as we look for good Bundesliga bets this weekend.
<br><br>
We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :<br>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNzgCEOoFmJJMU9sjUPv80KsZSLhh5zp-LCvA8FgsPO1XiJUaaBWKC_VHS09fs97VSMQoUikycPiCXjX3PjJkWfv42XXWL3pJdAUq4GOJPZbtA1QHeweVZI9w6Rvdo62Gnf4RmlenRdwcaMSTVcY8FzS0sHdNOV5Rctulim8ZEWfIul1BZxX3uvw/s840/Capture5-GBL.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="173" data-original-width="840" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNzgCEOoFmJJMU9sjUPv80KsZSLhh5zp-LCvA8FgsPO1XiJUaaBWKC_VHS09fs97VSMQoUikycPiCXjX3PjJkWfv42XXWL3pJdAUq4GOJPZbtA1QHeweVZI9w6Rvdo62Gnf4RmlenRdwcaMSTVcY8FzS0sHdNOV5Rctulim8ZEWfIul1BZxX3uvw/s320/Capture5-GBL.PNG"/></a></div>
We've got have five games to look at - and a few points to make :<br>
1/ Bayern Munich v Leverkusen to DRAW at odds of 5.00 with 33% chance for 165% value.<br>
2/ FREIBURG to beat Dortmund at odds of 3.30 with 36% chance for 119% value.<br>
3/ UNION BERLIN to win at Wolfsburg at odds of 3.20 with 36% chance for 115% value.<br>
4/ Bochum v Eintracht Frankfurt to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 30% chance for 108% value.<br>
5/ DARMSTADT to beat Mochengladbach at odds of 3.00 with 46% chance for 138% value.
<br><br>
However, there are quite a few circumstances to consider here and not all bets are sound.
<br><br>
Let's start with the obvious. The stats for the first pick Bayern Munich v Leverkusen are based on just 3 previously similar games (3 obs). That's no basis for a statistical percentage so the real draw percentage could be anywhere from 20% to 40% and we cannot trust the calculation. That being said both sides have started with three wins and Leverkusen do look a good side this year. I do actually like the draw bet here but you can't beleive any percentage number based on just 3 games matched.
<br><br>
The next pick of FREIBURG to win has a lot more data (95 obs) and again I do like this pick. Freiburg started with twq narrow wins before being thumped at Stuttgart last time so they're under-rated a bit - and Dortmund look to be less of a unit than they hae been in recent years. I'll take this.
<br><br>
Bet #3 is UNION BERLIN to win at Wolfsburg. I perfer taking Union to win at home, but thy lost 0-3 last time out and perhaps they will bounce back here? Based on 203 similar games we have the results as 34-30-36% likely so the bigger price on the away side appeals.
<br><br>
Our fourth bet is a DRAW pick in the Bochum v Eintracht game. It's possible, and it's interesting that the sheet prefers this to the home win which is actually better value. Eintracht are favourites despite not winning on the road in their last six away games - and Bochum have won this fixture in each of the last two seasons. I think I actually prefer the home win.
<br><br>
Finally, we have DARMSTADT as good value to beat Monchengladbach. Both sides are a bit awful this season and already in relegation trouble. My sheet has found 69 previous Bundesliga games that were simialr statistically, and of those th home side won 46% - almost half! A price of 3.00 for a home win looks good.
<br><br>
So five bets - and some of the reasoning is a bit dodgy with not too much data - but I do like them all.Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36264347.post-2002534996063443512023-08-31T23:37:00.003+01:002023-08-31T23:37:28.362+01:001st-3rd Sep 2023 - Value Betting in German BundesligaHallo meine freunde, open a nice cold beer and join me as we look for good Bundesliga bets this weekend.
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We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :
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We've got have five games to look at - and few confusing picks to analyse (and change) :<br>
1/ Leverkusen and Darmstadt to DRAW at odds of 7.00 with 21% chance for 147% value.<br>
2/ HOFFENHEIM to beat Wolfsburg at odds of 2.55 with 43% chance for 110% value.<br>
3/ FREIBURG to win at Stuttgart at odds of 3.20 with 38% chance for 122% value.<br>
4/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat Bayern Munich at odds of 8.50 with 22% chance for 187% value.<br>
5/ UNION BERLIN to beat RB Leipzig at odds of 3.30 with 53% chance for 175% value.
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It looks simple enough, but there are a few fish hooks and traps and alters to discuss, and I'm going to alter the bets slightly as I think it improves the chances of a profitable weekend - we will see if you agree.
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Firstly, let's start with the Leverkusen v Darmstadt game, where the form says Leverkusen win easily. Leverkusen have started with 2 wins, Darmstadt have two losses so it's easy to pick a home win - but football is not like that and streaks don't go on together. A price of just 1.20 on the home win means that Leverkusen would have to win 5 times out of 6 just to break even. That's a 83% win rate, and our sheet is giving it a 67% chance. The simpliest bet is to LAY against Leverkusen winning at the exchanges at 1.20 (Risk 1 unit to win 5) or bet on X2 at a price around 5 (it will probably be slightly less because bookies are B@st@rds!)
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Hoffenheim to win at home against Wolfsburg is easy enough to see - Hoffenheim 4-0-2 in last six homes while WOlfsburg are 3-0-3 on the road, so 2.55 is a great price for a very plausible home win.
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Stuttgart (2.25) and Freiburg (3.20) are evenly matched, both teams have about 38/39% chance to win in the sheets opinion, so we simply go wih the bigger price because we chase the best value.
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Taking Monchengladbach to beat Bayern Munich seems foolish at first glance, but the sheet looks deeper than this season. Consider that Monchengladbach love to beat Bayern Munich - they've done it here is FOUR of the last six seasons at prices of 5.00, 6.50 and 7.00 and suddenly the bet looks better. OK - Bayern have Harry Kane and look good right now. But weird sh!t happens when these sides play. To make the bet slightly more likely we can include the draw as well as it's also great value - so you can take Monchengladbach double chance (1X) or LAY Bayern Munich on the exchange and you should get a 49% chance of a collect at a price of 3.00
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Finally, Union Berlin to win at home is always a good bet if you can get over even money. Union Berlin went 11-6-0 at home last season. I know that RB Leipzig are a good side, but Union have won this fixture on each of the last three occasions by a 2-1 scoreline each time. I will note that the draw price is also fair value so you could consider hedging an insurance bet on the draw as cover if you are risk adverse.
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And that's it. We will be taking FIVE bets in the Bundesliga this weekend, and I've modified them a wee bit as I chase getting more wins and a profit.Goonerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10942941160112586845noreply@blogger.com0