Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :
1/ Sassuolo and Verona to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 33% chance for 119% value.
2/ Udinese and Frosinone to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 30% chance for 108% value.
3/ Atalanta and Monza to DRAW at odds of 4.00 with 28% chance for 112% value.
4/ Torino and Genoa to DRAW at odds of 3.30 with 33% chance for 109% value.
5/ Lecce and Salernitana to DRAW at odds of 3.30 with 34% chance for 112% value.
6/ JUVENTUS to win at Empoli at odds of 1.67 with 56% chance for 94% value.
WE will talk three of the draws together, as they're a statistical group. Three of the draws are picked between smaller sides that are evenly matched and based on 350-450 similar games over 20 years of Serie A we have draws at 33-34% with this group. And price over 3.00 for these games is good value.
In the case of Atalanta v Monza and Udinese v Frosinone it's slightly different as the home side is clearly rated better, but draws still occur 28-30% of the time - so if the draw price slips up to around 4.00 then it's a bet worth taking on.
Finally, a quick look at the Juventus to win pick tells me it's likely but I don't really like the price as it's slightly under target - so I'll leave this bet alone.
And that's it. We will be taking FIVE draw bets in Serie A this weekend, looking for two or more draws in order to secure a profitable return.
Buona fortuna, amici
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