Here is how the sheet sees opening weekend.
1. FREIBURG to win at Hoffenheim at odds of 3.00 @ 38% win chanch for value of 114%
2. Dortmund and Cologne to DRAW at odds of 5.25 @ 24% win chance of value of 126%
3. UNION BERLIN to beat Mainz at odds of 2.00 @ 70% win chance for 140% value
4. Ein. Frankfurt and Darmstadt to DRAW at odds of 5.25 @ 24% win chance for value of 126%
let's take a look at those in order ...
Freiburg were the surprise team least season finishing just outside te top four. They haven't lost anyone of note and should be competitive again this season. Hoffenheim are good at home - normally, but they've lost 3 of their last four games against Freiburg here -and drew the other ... so trends favour Freiburg alright.
Dortmund are one of my favourite German sides, and the "Buzzy bees" (I know it's NOT their nickname but ..) suffered heartbreak last season when that finally had the Bundesliga title within thier grasp only to lose it with ahome draw on the final day. Cologne are Koln. Midtable last season, they've strengthened a bit and could easily earn a draw - I have it as a 24% chance but it's only based on 25 previously similar games so that estimate could be off.
Union Berlin are the good time story for anyone who likes "the little club" that over achieves. At home UB went 11-6-0 from 17 home games, and they've beaten Mainz on each of the last 3 occasions that they've met here. Mainz are average - 9th last season, and look the same this season. The bookies don't seem tot think "little" Union can do it again. I'll take that bet.
The Eintracht Frankfurt v Darmstadt DRAW pick is the dodgiest choice. Eintracht looked good last season, have started this season with a good cup win (7-0 over Lokomotiv Leipzig) and have signed some good players too. But ... FRankfurt did draw four of their last six home games here last season, and the estimate of 24% draw chance is based on a solid 113 previous games data. The price is good.
Ok - then onto two other games that appeal to me.
5. AUGSBURG to beat Monchengladbach at odds of 2.70 @ 43% win chance for value of 116%
6. Bremen and Bayern Munich to draw art odds of 7.00 @ 27% win chance for value of 186% !!
You know that I could not leave the highest value bet alone. A draw here is paying almost twice what it should be according to my stats. There are plenty of reasons not to take the bet - including the fact that Bayern Munich always win here ... 16 games in a row !! But I can't resist such a good price .. you might be stronger (more sensible) than me.
The AUGSBURG pick is more about betting against Borrusia Monchengladbach on the road. BM are a famous old club, but they are far more powerful at home in front of their fans. On the road they tend to wilt too often, and went 0-3-3 to finsh last season. Throw in the fact that Augsburg have won this fixture three times in a row - and you know I'm taking that value bet.
So there is six games for you, and if we get two or more winners then we make a profit. Nice!
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