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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

A small profit

Tuesday's crackers went 3-1, with Inter Milan (1-0), PSV Eindhoven (2-0), and Liverpool (3-0) all winning - but Bayern Munich were held to a 0-0 draw with Sporting Lisbon.

Overall 80 points were staked and and 96.8 units returnd for a profit of +16.8 which is a yield of +21%.

I'll have the Wednesday Crackers out soon.

Doyles Poker Room Growing Fast

Doyles Room Ranked in Top 6 Poker Sites.

Doyles Room, the self titled poker room for Poker legend Doyle Brunson, is now ranking as the #6 poker room in the world after a number of big time players pulled out of the US market earlier this month.

Doyles Room and its network of websites recorded a peak of 2334 cash players over the past 24 hours, making them the 6th most active poker site network on the web, ahead of Microgaming, Paradise Poker and

As reported in the top rating Poker Blog Doyle Brunson has personally stepped up to bail out US players and give poker loving Americans a safe place to play.

We published the press releases from Doyles room a little while ago and since then have had good feedback from several players who have joined up and found it a good place to play.

Learn more about Doyles Room and its top bonuses and tournaments ...

Or go straight to Doyles Room now and join-up and download your FREE poker software.

Monday, October 30, 2006

Crackers for the Champions League

The Christmas Cracker went 4-2 on the weekend so the bank had a small rise to 107.5 units.

We'll continue our search for profits on Tuesday night in the Champions League and so we have four more bets for Tuesday - using a total of 80 units.

31-Oct PSV Eindhoven v Galatasaray
... Take PSV for 20.00 at 1.50 odds at Ladbrokes

31-Oct Liverpool v Bordeaux
... Take Liverpool 20.00 at 1.42 odds at Eurobet

31-Oct Bayern Munich v Sporting Lisbon
... Take Bayern Munich for 20.00 at 1.44 odds at Bet365

31-Oct Spartak Moscow v Inter Milan
... Take Inter Milan for 20.00 at 1.92 odds at Canbet

I'm hoping that this combination of singles should add more cash to our total.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Christmas Cracker Begins

So the Christmas Cracker betting scheme started yesterday on the forum - as attempt to take a small amount of disposable cash and increase it five-fold by the end of November so that you can have a good Xmas.

Saturday went well with four wins :
- Lens to beat Auxerre ... 1.97 @ Mansion Exchange
- Bayern Munich to beat Frankfurt ... 1.30 @ SportingOdds
- Liverpool to beat Aston Villa ... 1.63 @ Mansion Exchange
- Bordeaux to beat Sedan ... 1.60 @ Globet

And a value bet that went horribly wrong :
- Bolton +1/2 AH to not lose to ManYoo ... 2.00 @ Bet365

And today we're waiting on Lazio to complete the weekend's punts :
- Lazio to beat Reggina ... 1.73 @ Bet365

So we should see a profit yield from Weekend One - and I'll probably continue the scheme in midweek in the Champions League as there do look to be a few good value plays.

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Sat 28th Oct : English Premier League

So the sheet is out for the wekeend (on the forum) and all the rankings and trends cause a bit of a problem with the picks for this week.

NEWCASTLE to beat Charlton
Newcastle 1012 (but -112 H) are in massive decline to Charlton 708 (-8 A) and so although that 1.85 looks good now - it might only be described as "fair value" at best.

Perhaps Newcastle's 3-0 win over Pompey in the midweek carling Cup will help confidence - and it is "only" Charlton that hey are facing who have lost all four away from home.

I'll stick with the pick for a home win.

LIVERPOOL to beat Aston Villa
Liverpool 1213 (+20 H) face a tough Villa side 881 (+44 A) that's proviing hard to beat - indeed no-one has managed to do it yet.

Liverpool beat Reading 4-3 in midweek (too many goals conceded) and have an upcoming Champions Leauge game too - so will probably be all changed again.

Still Liverpool do very well at home (despite punters jibes) going 15-3-1 last season and 3-1-0 this season and that 109% value is tempting.

Again - I'll probably stick with the bet.

ARSENAL to beat Everton
There's nothing wrong with Arsenal's form 1215 (+0 H) as they're going exactly to sheet level and have won their last two home games 3-0, as well as thumping Reading 4-0 last week.

Everton (890 +55A) though are doing very well and are proably playing like a 950-1000 point side. If that was the case then the Gooners drop to 57%-58% likely to win (making the 1.45 price just 84% value) and a tough one to recommend.

It's not a great bet on the home side then (unless your a Gooner) and they almost turn into LAY territory if you think that Wenger might be tempted to rest players with CSKA Moscow due up on Wednesday.

As a result I have no recommendation on this game.

Sheffield Utd v Chelsea
The sheet says Chelsea are awful value at a price of just 1.35 and are only 58% likely to win.

Trends have Sheff.U (-12H) and Chelsea (+54A) so if you made corresponding changes to the ratings then the winning likeihood probably jumps to around 69% making odds of 1.35 value at 94% (or thereabouts) for Chelsea.

Bascially if you move quickly and get that price then a bet on Chelsea is OK - if the price drops avoid it ... or perhaps even try the LAY bet.


Gl with whatever you're trying this Saturday.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

US Poker Players Welcome At Doyles Room

With all the changes going on in the gambling scene in the US recently it's good to see one of the biggest names in the poker world making a stand ... Doyle Brunson.

"Doyle's Room" - the self titled trademark of Doyle Brunson's poker site - as recently issued a couple of press releases re-iterating that they WILL NOT be banning American players from their site.

We picked them up and republished them (see the link above) and it appears that this has been noticed by some of the bigger poker sites out there with posting this blog about it.

If you're looking for a good place to play - then why not support the "poker legend" Doyle Brunson as he makes his stand against stupid senators who seek to ban online poker - unless they can make a buck out of it.

Visit Doyle Brunson's site here

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Where is the Wednesday Wager?

Well - I have had a look and there seem to be a lot of trappy games around UK and Europe this Wednesday evening.

Nothing really appeals in the Carling Cup - although I suspect that Blackburn v Chelsea will be the pick of the games to watch.

Chelsea will feild a strong side - and this competition really is Blackburn's best chance of Silverware - so they'll give it a go too.

Both Fiorentina and Atalanta seem to have major injury worries - I'll nip off and do some research on that - while neither Inter Milan nor AS Roma appeal at prices of less than 1.30.

Bayern Munich are home to Kaiserslautern in the Cup - that'll be on TV here - and looks like a banker - but again at just 1.22 it's hardly a tasty play.


So I can't really find anything for you - although Cruiser has posted three Serie A games on the main site worth consideration.

And Fred Done from BetFred has his Carling Cup views and prices onsite too.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Carling Cup Choices

There is plenty of action in England on Tuesday night - but it's all in the Carling Cup which has a reputation for understrength line-ups and shock results. Team line-ups are frequently not known until just before kick off and you end up having to take a punt based on rumour an innuendo.

With that said - I can see plenty of visitors looking for previews - so here is what I think MIGHT happen - but please keep all stakes small.

These Carling Cup ties are not the most attractive betting opportunities that you'll find all season.

Arsenal to win at West Brom @ 1.80+ (Main preview)
The young Arsenal side that Arsene Wenger likes to field do surprisingly well in the Carling Cup - often making it through to the semi-final stage.

Prices started at a laughable 1.60 - but have risen to 1.80 and you might be able to get 2.00 around kickoff time which would be worth chasing.

Chesterfield to hold West Ham AH +3/4 @ 1.95+ (Main preview)
I'm not sure that Chesterfield can win (although that's a very big 6.00 price at Mansion Exchange but I do think that they can make it uncomfortable for West Ham.

West Hanm will probably edge the tie - but mayneed extra time or even penalties in order to do it.

I will take the underdogs but want the draw on my side so take the +3/4 goal handicap that also gives you half your money back if they lose by only one goal.

Henry favoured in European Player of the Year Vote

Henry Leads The Way In Race For The "Ballon d'Or"

Arsenal and France striker Thierry Henry is the 6/4 favourite with for the 2006 European Player of the Year Award. French magazine France Football awards the "Ballon d'Or" for the best European Footballer of the calendar year.

Italian players feature strongly in the betting after their heroics in Germany during this year's World Cup. Fabio Cannavaro is priced at 100/30, goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon at 20/1 and Andrea Pirlo at 25/1.

See site for more.

Monday, October 23, 2006


Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger has indicated that he will not be buying in the January transfer window.

The Gunners are now emerging as genuine contenders for the title after a stuttering start to the season, with Sunday's 4-0 win at Reading the fifth successive Premiership victory for the North London side.

Wenger has seen Chelsea and Manchester United outspend him regularly in recent seasons but insists he will not even be looking for a bargain when the transfer window reopens in just over two months' time.

The Gunners have been linked with France World Cup star Franck Ribery but if the midfielder is to pull on a red and white shirt in the future it will not be this season, according to his fellow countryman.

He said: "We have a squad and we will not buy in January. We will keep with the squad until the end of the season. In January we will jump over the transfer window."

The Frenchman expects two of his injured players, Lauren and Abou Diaby, to be back in action by then anyway with summer signing Julio Baptista now only a couple of weeks away from a return.

The Sheet - England Profits

Regular readers will know all about "The Sheet" which is a complicated prediction Spreadsheet that is posted on the main forum every weekend.

It contains data from 9 and a bit seasons now - including match odds- and tries to produce statistical outputs of the "most likely" results. It's these numbers that make up the result percentage numbers in my English match previews each week.

This week the sheet had five likely results and successfully went 4-1 with only Charlton letting the sweep down when they drew 0-0 at home to Watford :
Charlton 59% @ 2.00
Chelsea 80% @ 1.29
Everton 56% @ 1.65
Man Utd 58% @ 1.95
Tottenham 56% @ 1.80

(qualification is 55%+ expectation at home, or 50% expectation away)

A 10pt bet on each would have returned a +17pt profit for a yield of just over 33% which is better than a slap in the face with a wet fish.

The Sheet also suggests potential value bets and "value hunters" may taken five different bets this weekend :
Wigan @ 2.35 won 4-0
Blackburn @ 2.40 lost 0-1
Reading @ 6.50 lost 0-4
Man United @ 1.95 won 2-0
Middlesbro @ 2.50 won 1-0

(qualification for this system is value rating of 105% and at least 30% winning chance)

Overall the value bets went 3-2 and again a 10pt bet on each would have returned +18pts for 36% yield.

So a profit this week for the sheet on both EPL systems - backing up well from the 7-1 midweek pick rate in the UEFA Champions League and hopefully it helped you into a bit of cash.

Catch you next week.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

A good start to Sunday

A good start to Sunday ... as the perrenial losers NZ Knights were outclassed again - this time losing 2-4 away to Adelaide in the Australian A-League.

The Knights have turned into a bit of a banker team on the forum and it's still pretty easy money made by simply blind betting on their opponents to win - as that is the Knights seventh straight loss.

In truth it was a bit of a surprise to see the Knights actually manage to score twice - as they'd only managed one goal in thier first eight games ...

Still - it's an easy bet that still manages to pay out @ 1.25

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Easy Enough In England

We've got just a five match program this Saturday in the English Premier League, but it's still easy enough to find a reasonable bet in the top flight.

Everton host Sheffield United, and although the Blades have avoided defeat in their last two games - this one still has the look of a home win about it - even if the top price of 1.65 is a little means.

And Chelsea should have few problems in getting past Portsmouth at the Bridge - Chelsea are 22-2-0 in their last 24 home league games - and although Pompey soent a bit during the off-season and had a good start - it's is hard to see past the home win at 1.30.

Then to complete the treble why not take Charlton (2.00) to beat Watford at the Valley? I know the Charlton are bottom of the league but they've had a tough, tough fixture list and this game against the Hornets who are also struggling should be an easier task.

A treble bet should pay somewhere between 4.00 to 4.30 if your bookei is any good - and it looks to me like having a fair chance of winning too.

Good luck in whatever you take today.

Bremen in the Bundesliga

I'm looking to take Werder Bremen in the big Bundesliga clash against Bayern Munich tonight.

Werder Bremen are scoring well right now - winning their last league game 6-0 over Bochum, and also beating Levski Sofia 2-0 in the Champions League in midweek.

While Bayern Munich are without doybt the most successful club in Germany - they still struggle away from home - and have not won more than 50% of their away games in any of the past 5 seasons.

You can get a tasty price of 2.50 on Werder Bremen - mainly because you're opposing the uber-club in Germany - and I think that's worth a shot.


Oh I'll also take Hertha Berlin to beat Monchengladbach too ... but you should have already seen my more detailed preview of that game on the main site ...

Gl to all punters.

Hurricane Relief?

I see that Google has decided to put the Hurricane relief fund ad at the top of this blog - and that seems pretty apt for me.

New Zealand may be a lot of things to different people ;
- 60 million sheep,
- a South Pacific island haven,
- the location for the Lord of the Rings films,
- and the home of the mighty All Blacks

But if you live in Wellington during Springtime (September and October) then you'll know that the only bloody consistant thing is the gale force North-Westerly winds that hammer the place for two months solid.

It does your head-in as it's almost constant for the whole time - banging against the houses that perch on top of the hills - and basically making it awful to go outside at all - it could make you go potty.

Take my advice ... if you're coming to New Zealand for a holiday then try February through to April when the weather settles down and this f*cking wind goes away ....

Running with the Russians

Just a quick one to start the Saturday bets as our Lativan Forum regular Jason has provided use with a preview in the Saturn Ramenskoe v Rostov game in the Russian 1st Division.

The raw statistics might suggest a close game with Saturn 4-5-1 at home this season and Rostov having won their last four games in a row.

But our man actually gets to watch this stuff and says that Saturn have dominated the recent head-to-head games, and should be favoured to grab the home win here.
(click link above for full preview)

PICK : SATURN @ 1.90.

Friday, October 20, 2006

Bundesliga Derby Bet

Friday night has a local derby in the German Bundesliga as Borussia Dortmund host VfL Bochum.

Dortmund have won this fixture on each of the last four occasions, and Bochum are coming off a 0-6 home thrashing by Werder Bremen last weekend.

All all seems to add up to a solid home win for Dortmund and the price of 1.50 (1/2) on offer at several bookies seems more than fair.

THE PICK : Dortmund to win.
THE PRICE : 1.50 @ PaddyPower, SportingOdds, BetDirect and Interwetten.

Get the full preview at my Bundesliga Football page.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

UEFA Cup - Oppose weakened sides ?

AS I alluded to in the earlier post - it's hard work trying to find out good team news ...

But it appears that two Italian sides Parma and Palermo are both going to field inexperienced teams in this round and concentrate on their upcoming Serie A games on the weekend.

You can catch the Odense v Parma preview on the main site and that price of 2.30 (13/10) at Interwetten looks good enough to me.

And according to reports the Palermo coach will also make many team changes for this cup game - with the only certain starters beintg keeper Fontana, Barzagli and Pisano - and only because they are suspended in Serie A this coming weekend.

Opponents Frankfurt remain unbeaten in the German league, but have drawn six games and just one win after 7 rounds. Frankfurt did impress in the previous round of this UEFA Cup, outclassing Danish side Brondby 4-0 at home and then drawing 2-2 in Denmark.

The best price for Frankfurt is 2.40 (7/5) at Mansion Exchange and Betfair Exchange

These two games are worth a "tiny bets" only (don't go mad) - and only because I've spent the last hour trying to find some value plays tonight.

Frankfurt @ 2.40
OB Odense @ 2.30

We need one winner to make a profit.

... and yes I know I should not be listening to "missing players" gossip .. but that's the UEFA cup right ?

"Pulling teeth" in the UEFA cup

After a very successful last couple of days in the Champions League (where the spreadsheet went an impressive 7-1) it's back to the UEFA Cup and a relative paucity of information.

The trouble with betting on the UEFA Cup is that it seems to be a lot less highly prized in Europe - than in the UK - and with the games being played on a Thursday night it tends to put a lot of teams under pressure to field less than full strength sides.

We also have the situation of a half-baked group stage, where 3 of the 5 teams from each group will progress, so there isn't the incentive to go out an win the opening game, rather teams are seeking to avoid defeat.

All this combines to make finding a good bet rather like "pulling teeth" ...

To illustrate the point - take a look at the UEFA Cup previews over at BookieLabRat and they've had a look at the games for all 4 British sides - before deciding on a draw in each of them !!

But we've been fortunate enough to source a couple of good betting ideas from local punters on the forum - with Jhon and Jez both providing some good ideas - so check out our own UEFA preview page for some picks.

I'll be back later if I can find anything that I'll be wagering my own cash on.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Red Wine and the UEFA Champions League

I've had a good bottle of red wine with dinner - very good in fact - and I'm off to bed to sleep it off.

I'll be back in time to watch the Chelsea v Barca game - which I must say I am looking forward to.

As for tonight's betting - it will be a simple double for me :
Valencia @ 1.28 to beat Shaktar
Bremen @ 1.22 to beat Levski

Total return is 56% yield which is more than acceptable.

I've placed a sizable bet on this one at PaddyPower who seem too big on Valencia to me - and are the top price on the internet as I type.

It's a typical "banker" play - looks safe before kickoff - but we will have to wait and see eh? I probably should not mix alcohol and gambling - but this does look rock solid.

GL to all punters tonight.