25th-28th Aug 2023- Value Betting in Spain's La Liga

Then it's a quick trip to Spain to run our eye over the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.

Here is the sheet output.

The spreadsheet likes two bets :
1/ CELTA VIGO to shock Real Madrid at odds of 5.50 with 24% chance for 132% value rating.
2/ OSASUNA to win at Valencia at odds of 4.00 with 27% chance for 108% value rating.

I think my spreadsheet is heavily influenced by Real Madrid's awful season last year when they went 11-1-7 on the road, and blind batting against R.M paid good money often for a great yield. Real Madrid always seem to beat Celta Vigo head to head with 10 wins and 2 draws in last 12 games - so I'm not convinced.

Osasuna do have a chance of a win at Valencia, but the price is pretty close to fair value, and my stats are not exact as they don't take into account recent transfers or injuries so I'm not impressed by an estimated 8% edge. Once again - I don't really like this bet too much.

So I will look at the value in these games :
3/ REAL BETIS to win at Bilbao at odds of 4.20 with 39% chance for 164% value rating.
4/ VILLARREAL to beat Barcelona at odds of 3.60 with 50% chance for 180% value rating.
5/ VALLECANO to beat Atl.Madrid at odds of 4.33 with 34% chance for 147% value rating.

Let's start with Real Betis in Bilbao. The visitors are better and won 8 away games last season including here in Bilbao. It's only a 39-40% chance but fair value would be 2.50 or thereabouts, so to get 4.20 (and prices still rising) is value - so this is one away win that I will take.

Villarreal to win at home to Barcelona? I like everything about this bet - except the head to head record. Villarreal have an inferiority complex about Barca and have gone 0-1-5 here in the last six season against them - and 1-0-5 in the Nou Camp too. Still these two sides are rated similarly when Villarreal are at home so have a 50% win chance and a price of 3.60 on the home win is the value play.

Finally, do you like Vallecano to beat Atleti Madrid? I do. Especially at prices above 4.00. Again the head to head is awful with A.M 10-2-0 in the twelve clashes in the last six seasons. But recent form as Vallecano wining four of their last six home games, and A.Madrid winning just one of six on the road. the price is too good to ignore.

So there we are - the sheet has two options which I'm ignoring - and instead I'm going for three outsider bets - where we need just one to win to make a profit.

Which bets will you go for? Good luck with your punts.