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Sunday, September 30, 2007

Chelsea odds lengthen after another bore draw

Not much goalmouth action at Stamford Bridge
Chelsea are out to 8.00 (7/1) at BetFred to win the English Premier League now after another 0-0 draw - this time with Fulham.

There were plenty of boos from the home crowd as the Blues trooped off from Stamford Bridge, and the news got even worse when it was revealed that John Terry suffered a fractured cheekbone and requires surgery.

Arsenal lead the league but are only second favourites at 3.50 (5/2) also at BetFred - after the Gunners claimed another victory with a 1-0 win thanks to a Robin Van Persie goal over West Ham at Upton Park.

Manchester United also grabbed a 1-0 win Birmingham after Cristiano Ronaldo pounced on a defensive error to grab the crucial goal. The Red Devils are now 2.50 (6/4) favourites at Ladbrokes to retain the title.

NEW MANAGER AT THE BRIDGE ?
Guus Hiddink is 7/4 favourite to be Chelsea boss on the first day of next season with imcumbant Avram Grant at 4/1 as is Marco van Basten, Jurgen Klinsmann at 6/1, and Didier Deschamps at 8/1.

RELATED LINKS :
You can get all the latest English Premier League betting odds from 15 bookmakers at BookieLabrat.com - they're compiled in real-time when you enter the page.

Saturday, September 29, 2007

English Football : Betting Spreadsheet Sep 29-30


The English Premier League betting spreadsheet has been published onto the forum.

Link : The Sheet -> Premier League 29/30 Sept

You can see the sheet output there - and ask any questions that you have - as well as see what other punters have to say. I find this easier to manage than blgo comments (and it removes all the SPAM too)

Likely winners system :

HOME
------------
Chelsea to beat Fulham @ 1.33 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Middlesbro @ 1.85 at Eurobet

AWAY
------------
Blackburn to win at Sunderland @ 2.65 at PinnacleSports
Liverpool to win at Wigan @ 1.65 at Eurobet
Man United to win at Birmingham @ 1.90 at Interwetten

And of course the hugely popular "Gooners Guide to Gambling Discovered Value (GGTG DV)" systems ...

GGTG DV-DRAW
-----------
Birmingham v Man United @ 4.32 at PinnacleSports
Tottenham v Aston Villa @ 3.49 at PinnacleSports

GGTG DV-AWAY
-----------
Aston Villa to win at Tottenham @ 4.33 at Bet365

Good luck with your bets.

Friday, September 28, 2007

Italian Football : Betting Spreadsheet Sep 29-30

We've got the Italian football betting spreadsheet online for the weekend now - with the popular Gooners Guide "discovered value" systems all posted on the forum.

Link : The Sheet -> Serie A - 29/30 Sept

The DV-DRAW system has been going great guns so far this season in Italy - correctly identifying 15 draws from 24 attempts and returning a yield of over 90% so far.

Of course it cannot continue to run this week - bookmakers would go broke if that happened - but it's been a great ride - and the system has thrown up 5 more draw picks for this weekend.

IS this how we get the picks for our spreadsheet systems ?We've had several queries about how we do the picks - and although I'm not going to divulge the complete secret - I will let you see this picture of the backroom staff prepraring the sheets ...
:-)

Good luck with your bets this weekend.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Guide : Italian football Betting Previews
BookieLabRat : Live Italian Football Betting Odds
Livescore : Live football scores from around Europe

NFL : Week Four Spreadsheet

Week Four of the NFL is upon us - and the Gooners Guide to Gambling (GGTG) special NFL Spreadsheet is up and online in the forum.

Link : The betting Spreadsheet Output for NFL Week Four

The four betting systems - Marvin, Vincent, Abe and Eddie are starting to settle down now as they get more data and the selections are beginning to make some sort of sense.

Marvin (most likely) * = best
------------------------------

A - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS *
H - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS *
H - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS *
A - PITTSBURGH STEELERS *
A - CHICAGO BEARS

Vincent (value) * = best
------------------------------

H - ARIZONA CARDINALS
A - OAKLAND RAIDERS *

Abe (ATS) * = best
------------------------------

A - ST. LOUIS RAMS ATS +13
H - BUFFALO BILLS ATS +3.5
H - ATLANTA FALCONS ATS +3 *

Eddie (extreme Value Looney) * = best
------------------------------

H - CINCINNATI BENGALS - 158%
A - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - 149%
H - CLEVELAND BROWNS - 143%
H - ATLANTA FALCONS - 154% *

Last week Marvin and Vincent made profits, Abe broke even, and Eddie was left to rant about teams missing last second field goals ...

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Guide -> NFL Betting Previews
Gooners Guide -> NFL Betting Lines
NFL.Com -> Scores for Week #4

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Italian midweek spreadsheet up


There is a round of midweek action in Serie A - and now that we've got the site back up and running we've been able to post our home work.

We've done all the calculations and premutations for the midweek games in Italy and posted the spreadsheet with a few betting notes into the forum

The Sheet -> Italian midweek

Four "likely winners" :
-----------------------------
Inter Milan @ 1.40
Napoli @ 1.86
Juventus @ 1.28
and AC Milan (away) @ 2.33

The discovered value system suggests three bets (two repeats of above).
-----------------------------
DV-Home ::: Inter Milan @ 1.40
DV-Draw ::: Lazio v Cagliari @ 3.30
DV-Away ::: AC Milan @ 2.33

Good luck.

Apologies for the outage

Get my site back upOooops. Our host had a few problems this morning with hackers, power spikes, T1 cables and the "full moon" all blamed at various stages during the fault resolution ...

We noticed about 5am GMT - and with phone calls going to three different timezones - it seemed to take quite a lot of work just to get everyone up out of bed and fixing the problem.

Needless to say that we finally have got it all resolved (in a calm and diplomatic manner - see picture) and we are all up an running again.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Gooners NFL Spreadsheet review.

OK ... we've been running the NFL prediction spreadsheet for 3 weeks of the 2007 season and it's time to look at some results.

WE run 4 prediction systems over the spreadsheet, running from sports priced winners, to betting ATS, to value betting, and underdog plays. We've provided nicknames for each system to make it easier to follow.

Interestingly - after 3 weeks the systems are ranking almost exactly as I expected them to be - unfortunately none of them are making profits at all.

Although it's close ... so let's take a look.

#1 VINCENT (Value) 34 punts 12-21 (1 to play) -0.21% yield
------------------------------------------------------------

Vincent is a value betting system. It will back a team if they're considered to be at odds that are better than they should be - given their chances of winning.

IF the Titans win tomorrow then Vincent will make a profit for the second straight week after a rubbish 2-8 start in week #1.

This system has virtually broken even in the first three weeks - and the ratings should get better as the effects of new players are now factoring in. I have hope for Vincent paying off.

#2 ABE (Value) 27 punts 12-12 +2 pushes (1 to play) -1.70% yield
------------------------------------------------------------

ABE is our system for betting Against The Spread - and it's started OK - holding it's own with 12 wins, 12 losses and 2 pushes. It's also on the Titans +4 tomorrow.

Again - the system has virtually broken even - down just under 2% and should get better as we progress through the season to the playoffs.

#3 MARVIN (Most likely) 21 punts 14-7 -8.90% yield
------------------------------------------------------------

Marvin is your "banker bet" system - simply picking the most likely winners on moneyline (ML) without caring what the price is. He went 5-1 this weekend and made a small profit of +11%.

Overall though this system is about 9% down - which almost exactly matches the over-round at the bookies - and is where I expected it to be.

It's hard to make money regularly by betting on the obvious favourites - and I'll be amazed if this makes a profit as the bookmakers would go broke if they were that easy to beat.

#4 EDDIE (Extreme Value) 19 punts 4-15 -49.42% yield
------------------------------------------------------------

Ah ... Eddie Eddie Eddie.

This system only wants extreme value - which usually means big underdogs - and unfortunately this systems method seems only to be proving that extreme value is not there in the betting market to be found.

Basically if you're getting a great price - it's because there are other things going on that the sheet does not know about - and you're far better off ignoring these picks altogether.

It did get the Giants to beat the Redskins this week (@ 2.76) but went 1-3.

I will say that the amount of loss suprises me - but perhaps Eddie has also been a bit unlucky too - as he had Cleveland @ 2.55 but they missed a 40yd FG on the last play.

----

OK - so there we have it - four statistical systems for betting on the NFL - none of them beating the bookies yet (it's tough to do) - but the top two are going close enough for some hope at just 1% and 2% losses - especially as we get into the middle of the season with more data.

And the interesting difference between Vincent (value) and Eddie (Extreme Value) which highlights the same sort of "efficient betting market" arguements that power my discovered value systems for European football.

Interesting? Well it is to me ...
I'm already hanging out for the odds lines and next weeks games ...

Check out the Forum on Friday for the new sheet.

Friday, September 21, 2007

Jose Mourinho to manage Portugal in Euro2008?

Mourinho going to Euro2008 as Portugal's manager?Jose Mourinho looks likely to be the next manager of the Portuguese national side if the weight of punters money is to be believed.

The job of the Portuguese manager is obviously one that might appeal to the ego of Mourinho - and returning as a "national hero" of sorts will surely appeal to the self titled SPECIAL ONE.

Also remember that with Big Phil Scolari getting into trouble recently - trying to punch a Serbian player after a 1-1 draw in qualifying - that the Portuguese FA may well be looking for a popular way to cut the ties.

The Portugal national side is the outstanding favourite at 1.50 (after starting at 14.00 at some bookmakers) and the next two contenders are Tottenham and AC Milan at 6.00 and 6.50 repectively.

While AC Milan would be a good fit for Mourinho they seem to be in a good solid position and not looking for a change so I can't see that happening - while the Tottenham link is surely just a reaction to the instability of Martin Jol's job - as I also cannot imagine Mourinho being happy to settle for 5th best !!

One club job that might be worth a tickle could be the Barcelona role where boss Frank Rikkard is under pressure again after a slow start by Barcelona in this seasons La Liga - and Barca may simnply think that it's time for a change.

But as mentioned the overwhelming favourite is manager of Portugal - and the challenge of the task of finally leading Portugal to international success must surely appeal to Mourinho.

JOSE MOURINHO NEXT JOB ODDS -- BET AT BET365
1.50 Portugal
6.00 Tottenham
6.50 Milan
11.00 Valencia
15.00 Porto
15.00 Real Madrid
21.00 Barcelona
21.00 England
21.00 Juventus
41.00 Man Utd

Thursday, September 20, 2007

UEFA CL : Arsenal 3-0 Sevilla

UEFA Champions League
Arsenal made an impressive start to their group with a 3-0 thumping of Spanish debutants Sevilla at the Emirates Stadium in London.


Sevilla came into the match as winners of the last two UEFA Cup competitions, and after thrashing AEK Athens 6-1 on aggregate in qualifying, but they really struggled to come to grips with the pace and movement of the Gunners.

Sevilla began tentatively, defending in numbers as the hosts dominated possession early on, although both keepers had to be sharp to parry attacking efforts.Cesc Fabregas scores against Sevilla

Arsenal took the lead in the 27th minute after Cesc Fabregas hit a shot from 25 metres which deflected off Julien Escude and wrong footing Sevilla keeper Andres Palop.

Arsenal pressed forward in search of a second with Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Adebayor having chances but Frederic Kanoute also had a couple of chances for Sevilla who showed glimpses of their good form.

Van Persie Celebrates his goalAfter the break, the north London club continued to play with style and determination and were rewarded with a second goal on 59 minutes, when Fabregas whipped over a right-wing free-kick that was flicked on by Adebayor and thumped in by Van Persie.

Adebayor and Van Persie went close again after fine work from right-back Bacary Sagna while Sevilla committed men forward in the closing stages in search of a way back into the game.

Those gaps were punished in injury time when Aleksandr Hleb found Fabregas for a slide-rule pass that was turned in by Eduardo for an emphatic 3-0 victory.

Jose Mourinho leaves Chelsea

Jose Mourinho leaves Chelsea
Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho has sensationally left Stamford Bridge by mutual consent - according to leading websites like Sky Sports and BBC

... and this has now been confirmed by Chelsea.

Just yesterday club mouthpiece Peter Kenyon was saying "Mourinho is key to glory" (see this BBC article) so lets see how quickly they spin doctor that piece.

It seems to me that the spat with Andrei Shevchenko yesterdau in Chelsea's 1-1 draw has angered owner Roman Abramovich and caused a showdown.

Abramovich has long been known to be unhappy with the negative style of football that Chelsea have been playing with - he wants the team to win with style - although that's a huge order in today's modern football game.

Abrimovich may be casting an envious glance at the type of football being played up the road to the Emirates Stadium perhaps?

But this move makes little sense mid-season - and the Russian billionaire may find himself owning a disorganised team that is overly defensive - and suddenly stops winning as well.

A poor decision all around I think and I expect to be reading "Chelsea Crisis" headlines for the next few weeks.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

UEFA Champions League Spreadsheet

UEFA Champions League Spreadsheet
The patented "GoonersGuide Betting Spreadsheet" (TM) for Tuesday night's games in the UEFA Champions League has been released to the betting forum.

It covers all 8 games - and make recommendations on four likely home wins.

I've also covered the new "discovered value" systems as well - which pciks out one of those home wins as good value - and also targets a value draw bet as well.

You can get it all at the forum link below :
The Sheet -> UEFA CL - Round 1

RELATED LINKS :
Champions League Betting Previews
Latest Champions League Betting Odds

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Football Review - Spurs 1-3 Arsenal w. video.

Arsenal come from behind to win the North London derby 3-1 with Adebayor scoring twice.

Highlights video showing all four goals ...



UPDATE :
Apologies - YouTube gestapo have removed the video already - but you can still see two goal videos down below - and more over on this Spurs site - Harry Hotspur.

(He's a good sort so don't go taunting and crapping all over his site eh?)
:-)

Post match interviews from the BBC.
------------------------------------
Interview: Tottenham boss Martin Jol
Interview: Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger
Interview: Arsenal midfielder Cesc Fabregas

Tottenham 1-3 Arsenal
Spurs --: Bale 15.
Arsenal : Adebayor 65, Fabregas 80, Adebayor 90.

Two goals by Emmanuel Adebayor, with a brilliant long-range shot by Cesc Fabregas in between, gave Arsenal the three points after Gareth Bale had put Spurs ahead.

But for long spells it had seemed Arsenal's careless finishing would lead to Spurs beating Arsenal - as the Gunners opened up the Spurs' defence time and time with quick, incisive passing - but couldn't find the right touch in the opening 45 minutes.

Spurs went to the break 1-0 up, and Berbatov should have doubled Spurs' lead when he raced through on goal and rounded a stranded Almunia, who had left his area, but the Bulgarian attempted to trick Toure rather than shoot into an unguarded net and was dispossessed.

Yet if that was a bad miss, Adebayor quickly matched it as he blasted over from eight yards following a great run and pull-back by Bacary Sagna.

However in the 65th minute Fabregas' free-kick came in from the right - after the Spaniard had been fouled by Steed Malbranque - and Adebayor finally demonstrated he has a striker's touch by powerfully heading home.

Adebayor celebrates his equaliserADEBAYOR CELEBRATES HIS EQUALISER IN THE DERBY

Berbatov had a shot cleared off the line by Gael Clichy. But Arsenal delivered the crushing blow when Fabregas set his aim from distance and crashed in a fierce strike to put Arsenal ahead 2-1.

Tottenham substitute Darren Bent then scuffed his shot horribly wide when clear through on goal - demonstating a touch that puts a huge question mark over the value of his 16.5m transfer fee last summer.

And, remarkably, there was still time for Arsenal to score a third goal when Adebayor flipped up the ball on the edge of the box, swivelled and crashed a magnificent volley into the top corner.

(much like T.Henry v ManYoo a few seasons ago - see this video at MegaVideo - hopefully it will last longer)



AND A BONUS VIDEO :
Here is Fabregas's strike to put Arsenal 2-1 up ... WOW!

It's now 19 games over eight years since Tottenham last won this derby in League or cup.

Weekend Euro Football Spreadsheets up

Just a quick note to check out the forum and find the latest spreadsheets for England, Germany and Italy.

The Sheet --> German Bundesliga 14/15/16 Sept Thread

The Sheet -> Italy Serie A - 15/16 Sep Thread
(with additional picks from BiancoNero)

The Sheet --> English Premier League 15/16/17 Sep Thread

Hope it helps you to think clearly about the games !
;-)

Thursday, September 13, 2007

International Football - Value punters haven?

Value betting discussion
Just a quick round-up of the last five days of European football betting - which of course has been all about the Euro2008 qualifiers.

Regular readers will know that I release a spreadsheet onto the forum with statistical picks and predictions - and you'll also know that despite this it's very hard to find a big edge.

Last Saturday we analysed the spreadsheet results and found that (as expected) there was little profit to be made in picking "bankers" but what we did find was a very tasty +35% yield if you followed the spreadsheet in betting on "value" teams between 100%-150%.

So when I released the Midweek International Spreadsheet on the forum we talked about the potential value in the thread

However even I was surprised with the results as the "likely winners" did pretty well HOME 9-2 / AWAY 2-1) but barely broke even - while the value bets went 10-9 for a very tasty +45% yield on turnover.

Put that another way - if you put $100 on each of the 19 value bets then you came out with a $866 profit !! That's VALUE BETTING !! And it doesn't include either Scotland or Moldova who we didn't think we value.

My quick thoughts as to why international betting might be slightly easier to find value bets could be as simple as punter patriotism. People will tend to bet with their own country thus pushing some prices way out ... and the bookmakers do not care - they will set prices with GOOD VALUE as long as they get a balanced book.

This means that there could be very good value indeed for the dispassionate value hunting punter - we will look out for it with the release of future international sheets.

(Note : Don't go blindly betting on the same system for domestic club games - it's not as simple to find value - the bookmakers and punters are far sharper in club football )

Monday, September 10, 2007

Rugby World Cup : Weekend Outrights review.

The first weekend of games saw one upset - some impressive rugby from the Southern Hemisphere trio - and an unconvincing English performance. How did the bookies react?

New Zealand Price Cut
The All Blacks have been trimmed to 1.57 at Ladbrokes after their 76-14 win over Italy

Australia
Price Cut
The Wallabies are now down from 12.00 to 10.00 at Bet365 after they thumped Japan 91-3.

South Africa Price Cut
The Springboks are now second favourites at 6.00 at Eurobet after a very impressive 59-7 demolition of Samoa.

France Blowout !
Le Bleus now look to be on a collision course with New Zealand in Cardiff in the Quarter/Finals - assuming that they can squeeze past the Irish - and that idea was enough for Bet365 to set their price at 13.00

England Blowout !
England took almost nothing positive from their 28-10 win over the USA and the price on a successful cup defence is now a best priced 41.00 at Canbet

Ireland Stable
And Irish eye were not smiling at the inept display in only beating tiny Namibia by a 31-17 scoreline. They're now 41.00 at Canbet

Wales Drifting
Neither were the Welsh happy with their efforts against Canada. It was a 42-17 win in the end, but Wales were 9-17 down early in the second half. If you still believe in the Boyo's chances of lifting the cup then take 126.00 at Canbet

Argentina Price Cut !
After betting the French side you had to expect some shortening in price for the Pumas and it has happened (a bit) but you can still bet on the Argies at 41.00 at Gamebookers.

The next best side is Scotland at 250/1, Italy at 660/1 and Samoa and Fiji at 1000/1 - but you'd be better off donating your stake to charity - at least then something good would come of it.

Onto the next round of games then ...

Friday, September 07, 2007

Wenger signs 3-year deal at Arsenal

Arsene Wenger Arsenal ManagerArsene Wenger has vowed to turn Arsenal's potential into silverware after agreeing a new three-year deal to remain in charge at the North London club.

The terms of the new deal - which will keep Wenger at the Emirates Stadium until 2011 - have not been made public. But it is understood to be worth around £4million a season to the Frenchman, making him one of the highest paid bosses in the Premier League.

Wenger though has said that the issues have never been about money - either for himself or team building.

"I have been entrusted with complete freedom to implement and execute my plans on what will make the team successful," said Wenger. "That means I have a responsibility to the fans to deliver silverware and also a responsibility to the players to help turn our potential into prizes.

"I want to achieve the maximum with this team and it is young and very ambitious as well, and I feel I share that ambition with my team. That is one of the reasons, as well, that I wanted to get a taste of how hungry this team is first before I definitely go for it."

Wenger has aleady won three Premier League titles and four FA Cup triumphs as well as reaching the final of the Champions League in 2006 during his reign at Arsenal.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

US Open : Oops Serena's done it again

US open tennisI don't write about tennis too often - as despite being a recreational player - I find it a difficult sport to watch with any enthusiasm.

However, I notice that once again Serena Williams has displayed a graceless and classless performance in her post-match interview after being beaten 7-6 6-1 in the quarter-finals by Justine Henin.
Serena - such a 3 year old child
Sullen Serena. Snippy Serena. Snarly Serena - these were the headlines afterwards as Williams seems to think that if she can't get headlines for winning games then she will be the "bad girl" to get publicity.

Yet of course she'll chase the media soon - to sell endorsements, books, and anything else to make a buck. You can't have it both ways girl.

Anyway - ignoring the sad sulky loser - we now get back to the tennis news on court - and it's the business end of the tournament with Roger Federer the standout $1.30 favourite in the mens event, while on the Womens side the two favourites are Justine Henin (1.86) and Venus Williams (3.50) who are due to clash in the first semi-final.

RELATED LINKS :
US Open Tennis Live Scoring,
Mens 2007 US Open Betting Odds,
Womens 2007 US Open Betting Lines


(interestingly it was the same player - and the same reaction that last caused me to post on tennis - click the tennis label below to see how she handled her exit at Wimbledon)

Rugby World Cup Outrights

Rugby World Cup
The Rugby World Cup starts this weekend and there's been a bit of interest in the forum on the outright bets - although people are finding it hard to weigh up the options ..

... so let me make it simple for you.


First up there is New Zealand. Big, strong, powerful athletic - they're obviously favourites - but are they a good bet at 1.50 or so? No.

The All Blacks are probably about 50% likely to win the world cup. Why 50%? Work it out.

They've won 4 of their last 5 games (80%) against Australia.
They've won 4 of their last 5 games (80%) against South Africa.
And they've won their last four in a row against France.

If we allow France a bit of a ranking boost for being the home side - especially if they make the final then it's reasonable to assume that they're also a 20/80 underdog as well.

New Zealand will make mincemeat of their gruop opponents and then will have three games that matter - each of them against sides that they're 80% likely to beat.
All Blacks are 52% likely to win the rugby world cup
So I make the mighty All Blacks at 80% * 80% * 80% = 51.2% likely to win all three games and lift the Rugby World Cup. It's as simple as that.

------

Now the fact that they're priced lower means that you've got two choices - either LAY the All Blacks immediately - or consider backing each of the other likely contenders.

And who are they? Just four other sides in my opinion.

The three other winners of the Rugby World Cup (Australia, South Africa and England) and the host side France.

Sorry to Ireland, Wales and Argentina (and the other 12 participants) - but your chances of winning three knockout games in a row against opposition of that calibre is exactly NIL.

And frankly despite the hype that each of the remaining four sides might have at home - there is little to choose between these four nations. Each of them would be favoured to win a clash if they were hosting the match.

Perhaps I'll give France a little boost, and drop England a tiny bit after their home losses to South Africa and France - but England can still win a match against any of these three - on their day.

So if I said that the remaining 48 percentage points should be spilt as France 14%, South Africa 12%, Australia 12% and England 10% would you really argue too hard with that?

So there we have it.

THE POSSIBLE WINNERS
-------------------------------

New Zealand --- 52% chance @ 1.57 (Bet365)
France -------- 14% chance @ 8.00 (BetFred)
Australia ----- 12% chance @ 13.00 (Ladbrokes)
South Africa -- 12% chance @ 7.90 (PinnacleSports)
England ------- 10% chance @ 34.00 (Ladbrokes)

And for the betting scheme there are two approaches :

(1) You simply believe that New Zealand will win because they are the best side and FINALLY their time has come.

Then don't bet on the outrights - there is not value. Simply enjoy the tournament - and personally I hope you are right.

--

(2) You believe that New Zealand are vulnerable because nothing is ever 100% sure in sport and as I've demonstrated even the 80% sure All Blacks CAN lose.

Either LAY the All Blacks at Betfair to more than double your money and have all 19 other teams on your side.

Or, if you beleive that there are only 4 other contenders, back France, Australia, South Africa and England according to your preferences and you will have at least one team in the final - and be standing to make a very sizable profit indeed - IF the upset happens.

WARNING - the All Blacks ARE deserved favourites - and they are the single most likely side to win the 2007 Rugby World Cup.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Posting everyday? Not likely - so here's a joke ..

One of the things that I read is that if you've got a blog and want people to read it then you really should post on it every day ..

Trouble is - I don't have anything interesting to say about betting on a daily basis ... but in the interests of READER enticement and geting you lot to come back every day ...

Here's a "sporting" joke that I got sent today ... It'll make you laugh.
:-)

----

Mother Superior
A nun is sitting with her Mother Superior chatting. "I used some horrible language this week and feel absolutely terrible about it."

"When did you use this awful language?" asks the elder nun.

"Well, I was golfing and hit an incredible drive that looked like it was going to go over 280 yards, but it struck a phone line that was hanging over the fairway and fell straight down to the ground after going only about 100 yards."

"Is that when you swore?"

"No, Mother," says the nun. "After that, a squirrel ran out of the bushesand grabbed my ball in its mouth and began to run away."

"Is THAT when you swore?" asks the Mother Superior again.

"Well, no." says the nun. "You see, as the squirrel was running, an eagle came down out of the sky, grabbed the squirrel in his talons and began to fly away!"

"And Is THAT when you swore?" asks the amazed elder nun.

"No, not yet. As the eagle carried the squirrel away in its claws, it flew near the green and the squirrel dropped my ball."
Young Nun
"Did you swear THEN?" asked Mother Superior, becoming impatient.

"No, because the ball fell on a big rock, bounced over the sand trap, rolled onto the green, and stopped about six inches from the hole."

The two nuns were silent for a moment.

Then Mother Superior sighed and said, "You missed the fucking putt, didn't you?

Saturday, September 01, 2007

European Football Sheets online 1/2 Sep


It's been a busy week - but I've finally got all three of my European football prediction spreadsheets up and posted onto the forum.

Direct Links :
The Sheet --> German Bundesliga 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> Italian Serie A 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> English Premier League 1/2 Sep

In each of the forum threads I've also tried to outline the "most likely" winners for the weekend - and also the "discovered value' picks that are indicated using a secondary checking method that I am using.

please remember that nothing is certain in football betting - and if you do decide to bet then you acknowledge the personal decisions and risks that you are taking.

(What I'm saying here is don't come whining to me on Monday if these don't happen to win - I've tried as hard as I can to input all the accurate data - but sometimes things just don't go our way!!)

Also remember that this wekend we are trying to raise money for the Greek Wildfire Tragedy and are asking for winning punters to simply donate 5% or 10% of any profits that they make from the spreadsheet picks this weekend to this worthwhile cause.

If there is any Karma then you can be positive in knowing that this decision will bring you good luck - and hopefully great returns.

Good luck everyone - catch you next week - or feel free to post any and all questions on the forum.