25th - 27th Aug 2023 - Value bets for the Bundesliga

Onto Germany's Bundesliga which is rapidly becoming my favourite league to watch, and bet on, and Week #2 has a couple of good options to consider.

Here is how the sheet sees Week #2.

The sheet has highlighted bets in two games, and there one more that interests me too.
1/ BOCHUM to beat Dortmund at odds of 7.00 @ 29% win chanch for 203% value
2/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat Leverkusen at odds of 3.75 @ 37% win chance for 139% value

Let's take a look at those in order ...

Yes Dortmund are a good side (they were better last season and still lost 6 road games) and I have Dortmund half a goal better, but I just think that the price on Bochum has been massively affected by their 0-5 thrashing at Stuttgart last weekend. A price of 7.00 on a home win in the Bundesliga is usually too much. Here it's twice of our estimated fair value - we have to bet on it.

Borussia Monchengladbach are my favourite tongue twisting team - especially when they play at home where they have vocal backing of their fans. Last season B.Monch were 10-3-4 at home and just 1-7-9 on the road !! The rule is simple - back Monchengladbach at home when they offer good value.

And then there is this game :
3/ MAINZ to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at odds of 2.55 @ 50% win chance for 128% value

This is a typical Bundesliga mid-team clash, Mainz are better at home, Frankfurt struggle a bit on the road, and based on an analysis of 334 previously similarly rated GBL games the results are a almost perfect 50%-25%-25% split in favour of the home side. We've being offered significantly more than 2.00 - so we take it.

Ok - There's the Germany round up - three good bets I think.