Season Begins in La Liga - Value Bets

Spain is also starting top flight football this weekend with La Liga kicking off and there "appear to be some good value option for us o the first weekend - will they pan out and turn into cash? There is only one way to find out.

You can see the raw betting spreadsheet output online at GoonersGuide as usual but let me walk you through what I see when I look at those numbers.

The sheet likes two games as good options, the first one I understand as it picks Getafe at home to Barcelona. Getafe are not a bad side at home they win more than they lose, and we have a home win at 26% chance suggesting a 1 in 4 win profile so fair odds would be 4.00 (decimal), 3/1 (UK factional), +300 (US lines).

Consider the we can now get prices of 5.75 at the time of the sheet and they've grown to 6.50 now - that's over 150% value - I can't ignore it - even though the bet has a 74% chance of losing. Over 150% value. I'm on it

The second one mystifies me though as the sheet likes promoted Granada to draw at Atletico Madrid, and like the EPL sheet before I think thart my LALiga sheet is over-rating those chances. I'm going to "red flag" this sheet pick and ignore it - we will see on Monday if I was right.

But I won't leave you "hanging" with no value betting action - as looking through the output I see a few La Liga bets that look worth playing to me.

1/ GETAFE to beat Barcelona at odds of 6.50 @ 26% chance which is 169% value.
2/ CADIZ to beat Alaves at odds of 2.10 @ 63% chance which is 132% value.
3/ LAS PALMAS to beat Mallorca at odds of 2.10 @ 55% chance which is 135% value
4/ Villarreal v Real Betis DRAW at odds of 3.80 @ 33% chance which is 125% value.

Four bets that have appealing prices - we need to collect on two of them to make a profit.

If you have any comments you can always get in touch with me on the GoonersGuide Blog .