We have ten games to choose from this weekend and the sheet has picked four games with good betting value and maybe one more more potential bet that I'll discuss - but will we take them?
Anyway here is the spreadsheet online output for the EPL in week #3
1/ BOURNEMOUTH to beat Tottenham at odds of 3.75 @ 34% chance is 128% value.
2/ Arsenal v Fulham DRAW at odds of 7.00 @ 28% chance is 196% value.
3/ BURNLEY to beat Aston Villa at odds of 3.60 @ 36% chance is 130% value
4/ SHEFF. UTD to beat Man City at odds of 18.00 @ 9% chance is 162% value
Looking at those four recommendations in order ...
Bournemouth are underdogs to beat Tottenham as Spurs have looked OK and won well last week against Man United, but on the road they've struggled (last season Spurs went 6-5-8 - EIGHT lossses) and the price being offered on the home win is too high.
I hate it when my sheet goes against the Arsenal, but it's often right. here we are getting 7.00 for the draw and 13.00 for a Fulham win - both are very high prices for a competitive games. When you consider that Arsenal are 3-3-0 in their last 6 home games against Fulham (3 draws!!) the 7.00 looks attractive.
Burnley to beat Aston Villa plays out much like the first pick. Villa are the better side - about 6/10ths of a goal better - but a home win would not be a major shock - it happened in this fixture two seasons again - and Villa's 1-5 loss at Newcastle shows some issues on the road. High price - I'll take it.
Finally, Sheffield United to shock Man City is a dubious bet. It's only 9% likely but that price of 18.00 stands out like a beacon. ManCity went 65-14-17 on the road in the last five seasons - impressive but not unbeatable. In that time they've lost twice at similar odds - so it can happen it's just very unlikely.
ONe other game that has appealing odds but is not a sheet tip is :
Luton Town to get something at Chelsea with the draw at 6.50 (169%) and the away win at 12.00 (261%) but after LUton lost 1-4 away at Brighton on opening day I just wonder if the sheet still doesn't have an accurate measure of Luton's strength. Chelsea are likely to bounce back with a narrow win here - so it's probably best left alone.
There we are - four sheet recommended bets plus one other possible - personally I'm going to take the first THREE bets and try to get some profits on the board. I will NOT bet on the extreme outsider options of Sheffield United and Luton to cause major shocks. These will be more likely later in the season when the big sides also have European distractions.
So what will you take?
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