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Monday, December 31, 2007

Moyes needs convincing Arsenal were better?

David Moyes loses count of how many goals Arsenal scoredArsenal surprised as lot of people yesterday by battling back from a goal down to beat Everton 4-1 at Goodision Park.

The win moved Arsenal to the top of the Premier League - 2 points clear of Manchester United - to see in the New Year.

However, Everton manager David Moyes says that he thinks that Everton were the better footballing side during the game.

He said: "For all the stuff talked about the way they play, it was not their usual type of goals that beat us. We cannot hide that we made mistakes for the goals, but I will take some convincing that Arsenal were better than us.

Moyes continued "It was us who played the football and Arsenal who went direct. I'd find it hard to view it differently."

Of course what Mr Moyes is ignoring is the fact that on a cold, wet Merseyside night Arsenal scored four goals away from home to win by some margin.

Both sides had 10 shots, although Arsenal were more accurate with a 7-3 advantage on target - however the biggest difference was in the accurate finishing and quality defending.

For all the talk that Mr Moyes offers about the Everton style of play - the passing movements only really happened after Everton were 1-2 and then 1-3 behind, and Arsenal allowed the Toffees to play in the middle 3rd of the pitch.

Yes - Everton did make more passes - when they were losing on the scoreboard and Mr Moyes ignores the key areas of the game in his assessment.

The league table is NOT ranked according to possession stats - if it was then Arsenal would be runaway champions - instead it's ranked according to match results and goals scored and conceded.

Arsenal made one defensive mistake (and were punished) while Everton made half a dozen - and at the top level that's far too many to expect to win.

Quite simply Arsenal were better because they scored four times while playing away from home - and that's usually enough to win any game ...

(unless of course you are Reading)

Saturday, December 29, 2007

Saturday football : Premier League picks

A quick reminder of all the previews, livescores, odds and services that you can use on the main site for today's English Premier League fixtures.

I hope this helps you into making the correct picks today.

Good luck.

Online Poker Advice

Playing poker online is always a bit of a battle - and us amateur players can always use all the good advice that we can get.

Check out some pearls of wisdom from Mike Caro, Phil Laak and internet player "JohnnyBax" over at the PokerLabRat blog.

The labrats have also collected over 200 pro poker players posts from guys like Chris Ferguson, Doyle Brunson and Howard Lederer too.

It's well worth checking out the whole poker blog.

Arsenal ready for Lehmann offers

Jens LehmannArsenal are willing to listen to offers for Jens Lehmann but manager Arsene Wenger has insisted he wants the goalkeeper to stay at the Emirates.

The 38-year-old has been linked with a number of clubs in Germany and England but no firm bid has so far been made.

Arsene Wenger commented - "We will sit down together if an offer comes, but I believe first he has to make his own mind up if he wants to stay with us or not. I would prefer him to stay with us."

Spaniard Manuel Almunia has kept Lehmann out of the starting line-up this season, prompting speculation that the latter could move in order to safeguard his place in the German team for Euro 2008.

Former club Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg, Hertha Berlin, VFB Stuttgart, Borussia Monchengladbach and Manchester City are rumoured to be interested in signing the veteran.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Germany Banning Internet Gambling ?!

Online gambling will be banned in Germany as of Jan 1st 2008 after German states ratified an accord that preserves the country's state monopoly for lotteries and most forms of betting.

A majority of Germany's 16 states have submitted the ratification documents, Eric Braum, a spokesman for the Hesse government, which monitors the process, said in an interview today.

All 16 state legislatures voted by mid-December to approve the new online-betting laws, which the states negotiated after the Federal Constitutional Court ruled in 2006 that the former model was unconstitutional. The new rules, which expire at the end of 2011, have drawn criticism from Internet betting companies and lottery brokers like Bwin Interactive Entertainment AG, Fluxx AG and Tipp24 AG.

The new rules ban any form of Web-based gambling or brokering of games over the Internet. The states may order Internet service providers to block Web sites of illegal betting operations and banks to stop money transfers to them. The rules definition of illegal gaming includes placing a bet from German territory over the Web with a company based outside Germany.

The regulations also will outlaw advertising of gaming over the Internet and on television. Advertising in print and other media may no longer "directly invite, incite or prompt" customers to play instead it may only "inform" about the possibility to do so.

The European Commission, the European Union's Brussels- based regulator, called on Germany to reconsider the total ban on online betting, saying the step was disproportional.

In the meantime German citizens are going to have to put up with Federal interference in their gambling habits - as the local government seeks to increase their tax take by only allowing local monopolies.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Manchester United lead the Premier League

Manchester United are the new leaders of the Premier League after they beat Sunderland 4-0 on Boxing Day and then saw title rivals Arsenal held to a 0-0 draw at Portsmouth.

United strolled to a straightforward victory at the Stadium of Light.

Wayne Rooney was put clear in the 20th minute and had no trouble beating Craig Gordon with a cool finish, and he turned provider when he broke forward and crossed to Louis Saha who guided the ball home after 30 minutes.

A sublime Cristiano Ronaldo free-kick in first-half injury-time put the game beyond Sunderland and when Nani went down in the box, Saha converted the late penalty (86).


Arsenal had two great chances to grab the points in the closing stages but William Gallas lifted a shot over the bar from close range and then Tomas Rosicky screwed an effort just wide in injury time.

The result leaves Arsene Wenger's men trailing United by a point at the halfway stage of the season.


Chelsea also dropped points as the Blues were involved in a riveting 4-4 draw against Aston Villa in a game which saw three players sent off.

Villa took an early 2-0 lead with a Shaun Maloney double. Zat Knight was sent off in first-half injury-time for bringing down Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko scored the resulting penalty, before levelling with a brilliant strike in the 50th minute.

Chelsea went ahead through defender Alex (66) but Martin Laursen equalised for Villa. Ricardo Carvalho was dismissed for a two-footed lunge at Gabriel Agbonlahor but Chelsea went ahead regardless through Michael Ballack's 88th-minute free-kick.

However, Villa earned a penalty when Ashley Cole was sent off for handling on the line, and Gareth Barry scored from the spot to secure a well-earned point.


Liverpool laboured to a late 2-1 win at Derby and had captain Steven Gerrard to thank for the victory.

Spain international Fernando Torres' excellent dribble and finish put Liverpool a goal up at Pride Park although Rafael Benitez's men struggled to extend their lead.

Jay McEveley equalised on 67 minutes and chances came and went for both sides, before Gerrard - who moments earlier hit the bar - made a tireless burst forward to steam into the box and bundle the ball past Lewis Price in the 90th minute.


The pressure on Sam Allardyce was cranked up by Newcastle's miserable 1-0 defeat at Wigan.

Ryan Taylor's delightful curling free-kick beat Shay Given to put the Latics ahead - and heap further stress on Allardyce following the 2-2 draw with Derby last weekend.


Birmingham enjoyed a much-needed 3-0 win against Middlesbrough at St Andrews.

Stewart Downing sliced Gary McSheffrey's driven free-kick into his own net in the 21st minute and Mikael Forssell stabbed home after Cameron Jerome flicked on from a corner.

McSheffrey added a third in added time, converting a penalty after being fouled by Huth in the box.


Everton beat Bolton 2-0 after a goalless first half at Goodison Park.

The home side edged ahead after 51 minutes when goalkeeper Jussi Jaaskelainen made a mess of clearing Phil Neville's deep cross, allowing the ball to pass him and hit the net.

Tim Cahill made it 2-0 after a scrappy build-up when Rob Styles played a smart advantage and Joleon Lescott crossed accurately.


Earlier in the day, Tottenham were impressive in a 5-1 win over Fulham as Robbie Keane and Tom Huddlestone scored two apiece and Jermaine Defoe added a late goal, while Moritz Volz was sent off for Fulham.


West Ham and Reading shared the points in an entertaining 1-1 draw at Upton Park in which the Royals had Brynjar Gunnarsson sent off in the first half.

Nolberto Solano put the Hammers ahead but Dave Kitson secured a point.

Friday, December 21, 2007

UEFA Champions League Draw

Liverpool and Arsenal have paid the price for finishing second in the their Champions League groups with draws Inter Milan and AC Milan in the first knockout round.

The Gunners will meet the holders AC Milan in February, while Rafa Benitez's Liverpool side go up against the reigning Serie A champions and current league leaders Inter Milan.

Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United have a tough match against the dangerous French champions Lyon while Scottish representatives Celtic are facing up to two matches against Spanish giants Barcelona.

Chelsea were drawn against Olympiacos of Greece and the other big tie in the last 16 pits mighty Real Madrid against Francesco Totti and Roma.

Schalke 04 of Germany take on 2004 winners FC Porto and Sevilla face Turkish side Fenerbahce.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Bookmaker Cashback offers

Gooners Betting GuideMake sure that you're aware of all the bookmaker cash-back offers this wekeend if you are placing a single on a high profile game.

The principal is simple - the high street bookmakers are fighting for your bet stake - so they offer several sweeteners on televised games in order to attract your custom.

These usually offer to refund your stakes if certain conditions are met during the game, like a player scoring the last goal, or being sent off, or perhaps even scoring via a header.

Last weekend BETFRED paid out over £20,000 in free bets after William Gallas headed the winner against Chelsea - so it's something well worth checking out.

We've found offers from Bet365, BoyleSports, BetFred, PaddyPower and VCBet that cover games like :
- Arsenal v Tottenham
- Manchester United v Everton
- Newcastle United v Derby County
- Blackburn v Chelsea
- Barcelona v Real Madrid

As well as offers giving insurance against 0-0 bore draws and also any injury time goals in ALL 10 English Premier League games this weekend.

That's insurance worth checking out !

Gooners Guide to Gambling - Bookmaker Cash Back Page.

Carling Cup Semi-final Draw

Click for English football betting previews
North London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham will meet in the semi-finals of the Carling Cup for the second season in a row.

Chelsea, the last team in the draw after beating Liverpool 2-0 on Wednesday evening, will play Everton.

The two-legged semi-finals take place in the weeks starting 7 and 21 January.

OUTRIGHT ODDS (all from Bet365) :
Chelsea 2.38, - Arsenal 3.50, - Tottenham 5.00, - Everton 6.00

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Arsenal and Spurs through to Carling Cup semis

Eduardo scores the winner against Blackburn
North London neighbours Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur eached the semi-finals of the English League Cup following wins against Blackburn Rovers and Manchester City.

Arsenal kids prevail in Extra time.
Arsenal changed all 11 players from the side that had beaten Chelsea just 48 hours earlier as "the kids took paert in a dramatic encounter at Ewood Park.

Arsenal raced into a two-goal lead through strikes from Abou Diaby and Eduardo da Silva. However, despite the visitors looking dominant, Blackburn's Roque Santa Cruz got one back just before half-time and then latched on to David Bentley's free-kick after an hour to level the tie.

Rovers were applying the late pressure, and Arsenal's Denilson was sent off for a wild challenge as the match went into extra time leaving the Gunners a man short. However, in the additional period Alexandre Song released Eduardo who finished calmly past home goalkeeper Brad Friedel to secure a 3-2 victory for the Gunners.

Spurs win with another Ten-man effort
Meanwhile, goals at the beginning and the end of the game from Jermain Defoe and Steed Malbranque gave Tottenham a 2-0 win and inflicted Manchester City's first home defeat of the season.

Not even having to play with ten men for 70 minutes after Didier Zokora's dismissal could hamper Spurs, who go into the last-four draw on Wednesday together with Arsenal, Everton and the winner of the Chelsea / Liverpool tie who meet on Wednesday.

Monday, December 17, 2007

EPL : Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea

Gallas congratulated by FabregasWilliam Gallas scored the only goal just before halftime as Arsenal beat Chelsea to stay at the top of the Premier League table.

Gallas headed home the winner in first-half stoppage time to restore a one-point advantage at the summit for Arsene Wenger's team.

He nodded the ball into an empty net after Chelsea goalkeeper Petr Cech came to try and collect a looping Cesc Fabregas corner, but failed to make any contact.

Arsenal had chances to wrap up victory after the break, but Robin van Persie and Emmanuel Adebayor both had goals disallowed while van Persie and Fabregas both wasted great opportunities.

For Chelsea Andriy Shevchenko failed to trouble Manuel Almunia with a free header, and had a blistering free-kick tipped over by the Arsenal goalkeeper.

The victory was a deserved one for an Arsenal team who looked the brighter outfit for most of the 90 minutes as Chelsea struggled without skipper John Terry who went off with a foot injury in the latter stages of the first half.

AC Milan 4-2 Boca Juniors

Milan win FIFA World Club Championship

Finally we had a football game worth talking about at the "World Club Championships" as an aging Milan team overcame an out-of-season Boca Juniors side in the "final".

Filippo Inzaghi scored twice as AC Milan beat Boca Juniors to win the Club World Cup in Japan. Inzaghi struck after a Kaka pass on 21 minutes but Boca equalised a minute later through Rodrigo Palacio's header.

Alessandro Nesta's volley, Kaka's solo run and finish and Inzaghi's second - all in the space of 10 minutes - settled the match in Milan's favour.

Kakha Kaladze saw red, as did Boca's Pablo Ledesma, while Milan's Massimo Ambrosini scored an own goal.

So well done and congratulations to AC Milan - who learned that Paulo Maldini will be retiring at the end of the season.



But frankly the preliminary games are a bit of a farce - and even if an upset did happen so that we did not get a Europe v South America final all it would mean is another imbalanced game in the final.

This is one FIFA turkey that will not fly - no matter how much they dress it up. Either bring over a couple more top sides for the "tournament" or stop pretending that it's anything more than a one-game title.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Fulham v Newcastle - Kuqi Monster !!

A little note to all punters thinking of taking a bet on the Fulham v Newcastle late kickoff - Irish bookmaker BoyleSports are offering a cash-back on this game.

Click to visit BoyleSports
The Finnish striker has not scored yet this season - but he's started in the last two games ... the bad news is that Fulham lost them both without scoring.

L 0-2 at Manchester Utd
L 0-3 At Everton

Still - the promotion made me laugh - and playing at home to Newcastle might be an easier place to get a goal eh?

Big match Buildup.

Having recently lost the last two unbeaten Premier League records, Arsenal and Liverpool will be trying to bounce back with wins over their biggest rivals.

Alex Ferguson will take some time out from advising the FA not to pick Sam Allardyce for the England job to test the true quality of Rafa Benitez's perennial cup kings and see if their title challenge is for real.

While, Arsene Wenger could welcome back Cesc Fabregas, and Van Persie is almost certain to take part in a mouth-watering contest. One team plays some of the most attractive football in the world. The other is Chelsea.

The managers will say these Sunday games will decide nothing, we say it'll decide who gets to abuse who in offices and workplaces all over the planet for months to come.

Nothing could be more important!

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Super Sunday Correct Score Plunge.

Betting on either of the big games on Sunday afternoon when Arsenal take on Chelsea and Manchester United travel to Liverpool ?

Me too.

I think that I will be taking advantage of the Ready for War! offer over at PaddyPower which is offering a cash back on all correct score bets if a player is sent off in EITHER game.

That's two high-pressure clashes - and the beauty of getting a cash back due to an event in another game appeals somewhat.

But what also appeals is that these games between the big four clubs do tend to be somewhat predictable with score-draws showing up more and more often as they seem to accept spliting the points.

Manchester United have won four of the last five games at Anfield (see my Liverpool v Man Utd stats page) but I reckon that Liverpool have raised their game this season and a draw is on the cards there.

While in London we can see that Arsenal and Chelsea have drawn four of their last six league clashes at all venues - and the absence of Didier Drogba for Chelsea suggests that goals might be down and Chelsea will make themselves very hard to beat.

While correct scores are a bit of a lottery, I've always liked playing the 1-1 draw, as it keeps your bet alive after the first goal, and typically when a side is losing 0-1 late on they'll push forward looknig for the equaliser.

So a wee punt on 1-1 can add to the interest levels and with prices of 13/2 (7.50) on 1-1 at Anfield and 5.50 at the Emirates there is scope for a tasty payout.

- PaddyPower (to get the bet on)
- English Premier League Spreadsheet betting stats
- English Premier League Betting Previews

Saturday, December 08, 2007

A New Spreadsheet Era Begins - The Database !

Looking for the weekend spreadsheet?

Well after receiving 1,001 questions about :
- How it works ?
- And whether I can get it online earlier ?
- And why are the draws rated as they are ?
- And whether I can get it online earlier ?
- And who are the banker winners this weekend?
- And whether I can get it online earlier ?

I dedcided that the best thing that I can do is to actually migrate the output into an online database - so you can see it when I produce the stuff on Friday morning.

Here's the all important link to the new and improved Gooners Betting Spreadsheet and that output should look pretty familiar.

The "ML PK" column stands for MOST LIKELY PICK where a + = home win and a "-" = and away win.

The "DV PK" column stands for DISCOVERED VALUE PICK and this looks for potential good value - and is the basis for the successful draw betting system in Serie A.

IF you click on the "more" link underneath the SHEET STATS column then you'll get an additional page of sheet workings and information on each and every game !!

I think it's pretty useful ... and over the next week or two I'll be adding in additional leagues, more information, and notes so you can see why the sheet makes the predictions it does.

I hope it helps you to more beers !!

Remember though - like all computers the sheet output is just a tool.

It knows absolutely nothing about injuries, tiredness, absenses, fixed games, or sacked managers ... so you will still need to add in a bit of human skill to make your final choices.

If you gamble and you lose - then it's your problem - not mine. I expect each punter to take responsibility for their own actions - and to wager sensibly.

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Dec 2nd

Click to see the full sized betting sheet
Here is the betting spreadsheet for Sunday 2nd December in Italy.

As you can see (if you clicked the sheet above to get a copy in a seperate browser) there are no huge mismatches this weekend - with all of the game rated within a MARgin of 100 (or 1 goal on average).

But there are still a couple of games that are worth a good close look :

Parma to beat Empoli @ 2.00 at Bet365

Empoli are just 1-2-5 away from home this season and have lost 3 of their last 4 road games heavily losing 0-3 each time. Of course sandwiched in between those results is that stunning 1-0 win in the San Siro against AC Milan - but that's why they call it gambling right?

The bookmakers seem to be cottoning onto our system this month - as we've picked out three more games worth a shot - but I notice that 3.00 is about the best price that we can get now - that days of 3.20 to 3.50 are long gone.

DRAW - Torino v Genoa @ 3.00
DRAW - Catania v Palermo @ 3.00
DRAW - Cagliari v Livorno @ 3.00

As you can see all three games have a similar rating pattern with the MARgin within about 30 and none of the sides ranked at 1,000 above.

Our research has shown that generally these teams are happy to accept a draw if it's still level with 80 minutes gone - and so draws are occuring more than 1/3 of the time.

Ok. That's the lot this week - good luck.

The Fiver Rumour Mill ...

As stolen from the high-profile (for a blog) and always funny Guardian Fiver blog ... their rumour mill always has a nice turn of phrase.

Milan have had enough of Ronaldo's injury problems, and would be happy to see the cuddly striker lending his weight to another team's attack.

Wayne Bridge has had enough of not being picked by Avram Grant, and is considering taking his unique brand of comedy to Newcastle or Spurs, where it will be properly appreciated.

And Liverpool co-owner Tom Hicks has had enough, and will sell his stake in the club as soon as Rafa Benitez stops whining about transfer targets long enough for him to get a word in edgeways.

Check out the Guardian Fiver Monday to Friday (around tea-time) for a regular laugh.

Saturday, December 01, 2007

EPL : Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal : Report

Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal

Aston Villa : Gardner 14';
The Arsenal : Flamini 23', Adebayor 36'

Arsenal came back from an early goal to deservedly lead by halftime and then weathered a vastly-improved second half performance from Aston Villa to maintain their unbeaten record and the leadership of the Barclays Premier League.

Craig Gardner had given Villa hope of their first win over the Gunners in 18 meetings when he put them ahead with his third goal of the campaign.

But Arsenal responded by handing out a footballing lesson for the remainder of the half and could easily have added to goals from Mathieu Flamini and Emmanuel Adebayor.

The Gunners had been a joy to watch in the opening 45 minutes with some delightful free-flowing football which often had Villa chasing shadows. They stepped up a gear from the minute Villa went ahead and their one-touch play caused the home side constant problems.

Lassana Diarra and Alexander Hleb sparkled in midfield while Emmanuel Eboue was an effective outlet on the right flank. Little was seen of the exciting forward play which had brought Villa 11 goals in the previous four games.

Villa were a different proposition after the break with Ashley Young more of a threat on the left wing and target man John Carew causing problems. Carew put a thumping header against the Gunners bar with Almunia well beaten - and Young was booked late on for a swan dive looknig ofr a penalty after his control let him down.

But the Gunners held firm with Kolo Toure and William Gallas solid performers at the heart of the Gunners back four.

It means that Arsenal have not tasted defeat in the league since April and in the process they brought an end to Villa's run of four successive wins.

EPL : Betting Spreadsheet for Dec 1/2

CLick to see full sized sheet

Here is the betting spreadsheet for the weeknd games - but it's not really much use to punters - on Saturday at least.

There are NO likely winners according to the ratings on Saturday - although the RES portion of the sheet does favour both Arsenal and Chelsea potentially - but it's not the most reliable indicator.

If you look at the percentages and the value calculations then you'll see that most of the home sides sit within our fair value band (of 85% to 115%) suggesting that if you have special news to back a home side then you'll get a fair bet.

Away from home we can see theat West Ham are rated at 325% of fair value when priced at 13.00 - but then the spreadsheet does not know that Chelsea have not lost at home for two seasons - and so I'd take that with a grain of salt.

Perhaps though I might be tempted into a bet on the Sunderland v Derby DRAW at 3.70, given that both teams will be scrapping hard to avoid dfeat in a game billed as a six-pointer by both managers.

We will end the wekend with three likely home winner picks on the Sunday/Monday games but once again you hardly needed the sheet to tell you that eh? :
- Liverpool to beat Bolton,
- Tottenham to beat Birmingham
- and Manchester Utd to beat Fulham

Sorry I can't be more use this weekend.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet review

Click to visit
Time to check out how the UEFA betting spreadsheet went for Matchday #5 of the UEFA Champions League.

Wednesday was pretty successful and this means that the round as a whole was pretty good.

Success with Inter Milan (1.40), Manchester United (1.58), Chelsea (1.65), Celtic (1.93) and Besiktas (2.75) ... and just one failure with Lazio.

That's 600 units staked for 931 units returned.
A profit of +331 units gives a yield of +55%

Both of Wednesday's draws came in - turning around the double failure on Tuesday and leaving the "value system" well in profit.

That's 400 units staked for 685 units returned.
A profit of +285 units and a tasty +71% yield.

So I think that the sheet helped punters to spot ways to make quid this week - and you'll be able to toast the sheet during a round of free beers down at the pub on Friday night.

Cheers !!

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 28

Yesterday's sheet nailed to two likely winners (just) - but failed with the value draws.

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday 28th November.


Celtic to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Lazio to beat Olympiakos @ 1.94 at PinnacleSports
Besiktas to beat Marseille @ 2.75 at Canbet

Chelsea to win in Rosenborg @ 1.65 at Interwetten


DRAW Valencia v Schalke @ 3.60
DRAW Benfica v AC Milan @ 3.25

Good luck

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 27.

UEFA Champions League Spreadsheet
Here is the betting spreadsheet for Tuesday 27th November.


Manchester United to beat Sporting Lisbon @ 1.58 at Canbet
Inter Milan to beat Fenerbahce @ 1.40 at PinnacleSports

The likely winners are simply based on the MARgin bring greater than 75 points (or 3/4 of a goal). We should ignore the RES rating for Slavia Prague as it's only based on 15 previous games.


DRAW Seville v Arsenal @ 3.45
DRAW Stuttgart v Rangers @ 3.30

The value system is based on the strength of the AWAY side and also the projected MARgin. In this case both games are very close to even strength.

Good luck with your midweek punts.

Monday, November 26, 2007

UEFA Champions League : Match Day Five

uEFA Champions League Matchday Five
Matchday Five of the Champions League this week - as the group stage comes down to the business end.

Arsenal and Manchester Utd are already through while Chelsea should be coasting towards the knockout stage.

But Liverpool, Celtic and Rangers face crunch games where failure could cost them millions.

17:30 CSKA Moscow (2.20) Draw (3.25) PSV (3.60)
19:45 Dynamo Kiev (5.00) Draw (3.40) Roma (1.91)
19:45 Inter Milan (1.45) Draw (4.50) Fenerbahce (9.00)
19:45 Lyon (2.75) Draw (3.25) Barcelona (2.85)
19:45 Man Utd (1.61) Draw (4.00) Sporting Lisbon (7.50)
19:45 Sevilla (2.20) Draw (3.32) Arsenal (3.65)
19:45 Steaua Bucuresti (2.20) Draw (3.03) Slavia Prague (3.62)
19:45 Stuttgart (2.25) Draw (3.30) Rangers (3.45)

19:45 Benfica (3.40) Draw (3.25) AC Milan (2.38)
19:45 Besiktas (2.83) Draw (3.25) Marseille (2.78)
19:45 Celtic (1.95) Draw (3.40) Shakhtar Donetsk (4.30)
19:45 Lazio (1.81) Draw (3.55) Olympiakos (5.10)
19:45 Liverpool (1.50) Draw (4.20) FC Porto (8.70)
19:45 Rosenborg (6.50) Draw (3.76) Chelsea (1.62)
19:45 Valencia (1.67) Draw (3.75) Schalke (5.80)
19:45 Werder Bremen (3.10) Draw (3.41) Real Madrid (2.38)

All KO times GMT

Henry out for Barca's trip to Lyon

Henry will not be travelling to France
Thierry Henry will sit out Barcelona's Matchday 5 trip to Olympique Lyonnais after he and Oleguer Presas were left out of the travelling squad.

Henry played a major role for Barca on Saturday evening, assisting Bojan Krkic for the second goal in a 3-0 victory against RC Recreativo de Huelva.

Yet he and Oleguer, who replaced Gianluca Zambrotta in the 65th minute at Camp Nou, both missed this morning's training session and will not make the trip to France as Barcelona look to secure progress to the UEFA Champions League first knockout round.

Barcelona boss Frank Rijkaard will be able to call on Ronaldinho, who was rested against Recreativo.

Betting Sheet Reviews

It's time to take a look back at the weekend betting spreadsheets and see how we did in England and Italy.

Hits at home with Arsenal, Everton and Manchester City, and an away win with Chelsea as well - but Manchester United prevented the clean sweep.

Still a 4-1 record produces a profit, as 100 units staked per bet returns 571 units for a +71 unit profit.

And that's not counting the 5.50 price on the DRAW/ARSENAL HT/FT pick or the fact that I actually went for Bolton on +1.25 AH on the main site. (you do check them out right?)

All-in-all a good weekend in England.

After warning about the draws in ITaly we only ran into one this weekend in the Serie A, with winners found for Inter Milan, Juventus, AS Roma and AC Milan as Itlian football sorted itself out.

Fiorentina did draw with Reggina though.

Still - another 4-1 record, and again 100 points on each resulted in a 662 point return for +162 points profit.

Two draws tipped and one of them came in - paying out at 2.95 meaning that the 2x100 point stakes turned into a 295 point return for a +95 unit profit.

There was nothing stunning in the spreadsheet picks - but very, very reliable tips - with all three published systems showing a nice bit of wedge at +328 units. I hope that we helped you into a few "free beers" this weekend - being paid out of betting profits.

Catch ya next week.

Friday, November 23, 2007

Italian Football : Betting sheet Nov 24/25

click to see the fullsized Italian Sheet

Welcome back to the blog - and I've also been able to knock out the Italian sheet in plenty of time for the weekend.

One word of caution about Italian football - it seems that this season is the seaon of the draw in Serie A - as after 117 games this season draws lead all results with a 40-46-31 breakdown.

That means that home wins are running at just 34% (a huge variance on the normal 46% in Italy) and so if you're wondering why your normal home banker accumulators are not working then this might be a mjor reason.

HOME WINNERS (be careful though - read above)
Inter Milan to beat Atalanta @ 1.31 at PinnacleSports
Juventus to beat Palermo @ 1.66 at Globet

AS Roma to win at Genoa @ 2.00 at Bet365
AC Milan to win at Cagliari @ 1.65 at VCBet
Fiorentina to win at Reggina @ 2.15 at PinnacleSports

And if you're following the value DRAW system which has produced good results so far then consider :
- Napoli v Catania DRAW @ 3.48 at PinnacleSports
- Empoli v Torino DRAW @ 2.95 (available generally)

Good luck with your Italian bets this weekend.

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 24/25

click to see the full sized sheet

I've got plenty to be getting on with today so just a quick post with the weekend sheet and the likely winners.

Arsenal to beat Wigan @ 1.17 at Bet365
Everton to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at PaddyPower
Manchester City to beat Reading at 1.62 at Paddy Power

Manchester United to win at Bolton @ 1.50 at Interwetten
Chelsea to win at Derby @ 1.30 at Interwetten

Good luck if your punting this weekend.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Euro2008 : Cars to Croatia as well?

Fancy a Mercedes?Soccer: Russian offers Croatia incentives to beat England

A Russian billionaire has offered incentives to Croatia for beating England in their final Euro 2008 Group E qualifier on Thursday (NZ time), a result that would give Russia a chance to reach the finals.

Spartak Moscow owner Leonid Fedun said he would donate four Mercedes cars to Croatia's best players if their team comes away with a win at Wembley.

Russia had been in the driving seat following last month's shock win over England in Moscow but lost the initiative after a 2-1 defeat by Israel in Tel Aviv on Sunday. They must now beat Andorra and hope England lose to Croatia.

Not many in Russia, however, believe that already-qualified Croatia, who lost 2-0 to Macedonia in Skopje on Sunday after securing their passage to Euro finals, have the ability to beat England at Wembley.

Fedun said he simply wanted to boost Croatia's morale by offering their goalkeeper and the top three field players each a Mercedes. Croatia goalkeeper Stipe Pletikosa plays for Spartak.

"I'm doing this strictly as a fan," Fedun was quoted as saying by the Russian media. If we have even a small chance we must try to use it."

Israeli media reported that English bookmaker Fred Done had promised a Mercedes to the Israel player, who scored a winning goal against Russia.

However, the Israeli FA said Omer Golan, who struck the injury-time winner, would not be able to accept the gift because it was deemed to be "beyond the bounds of sportsmanship".
(link to more on the original offer at

2010 World Cup : Asian Seeds

South Africa World Cup 2010
The AFC have announced the seeds for the third stage of 2010 FIFA World Cup qualification.

The seeding is based on results at the finals and qualifying stages of the 2006 FIFA World Cup and will be drawn in Durban, South Africa on Sunday.

(1) Australia, (2) Korea Republic, (3) Iran, (4) Japan, (5) Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, Uzbekistan, Kuwait, DPR Korea, China
Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Oman, UAE
Qatar, Syria, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Singapore

These 20 teams will be drawn into five groups of four with the top two sides in each group advancing to the next qualification round.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Euro2008 : 12 countries through - 4 places left

Another six countries secured their places at UEFA EURO 2008 on Saturday night taking the total to 12 so far.


Italy, Netherlands, Poland and Spain all progressed with victories while Croatia qualfied thanks to Russia's defeat against Israel, despite being beaten by F.Y.R. Macedonia.

France's players did not even have to put on their boots, with Italy's last-gasp win in Scotland enough to send them through also.

This takes to 12 the number of teams now qualified, with co-hosts Austria and Switzerland, holders Greece, Czech Republic, Germany and Romania already assured their places.


Group A
Portugal are one point back and in need of just a single point more after beating Armenia 1-0. However, Finland's 2-1 victory over Azerbaijan keeps them within three points of the Portuguese whom they could overtake by winning the Porto showdown on Wednesday.

There is also hope for Serbia who will take on Poland on Wednesday and Kazakhstan on Saturday 24 November after snow in Belgrade forced the game's postponement on Saturday. Serbia need wins against Poland and Kazakhstan combined with a Portugal defeat against Finland.

Group C
Turkey can qualify if they beat Bosnia-Herzegovina while Norway travel to Malta and need to win and see an upset in Istanbul.

Group E
England's now need only a point at home to Croatia on Wednesday when the Russians face Andorra.

Group F
Sweden lost 3-0 in Madrid but the Scandinavians will still qualify so long as they take a point from their concluding home game against Latvia. If Sweden lose, then third-placed Northern Ireland – 2-1 victors over eliminated Denmark – can pip them to second place on the head-to-head rule by winning in Spain.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

International Football - the betting sheet

So to recap briefly on how to read this spreadsheet ...

Worka on a home / away basis using a power ranking system to award performance points based on
- actually winning,
- the size of the win,
- the strength of the opponent
- whether it was an upset or not.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
MAR = Margin of win where 1 pt = 1/100th of a goal.

Is an attempt to show the results of previous matches where we had teams that were simialrly ranked with a similar margin.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
H/D/A = % of games results
OBS = number of previous matches used for %

In club based spreadsheets I'd want around 100 OBS before really being comfortable with the res system to being accurate to +/- 3%.

With internationals you have some RES predictions that have less than 20 OBS I'd say that the number could easily be +/- 10% of the REAL figure so be careful and don't wager your bank on a game with only a few previous items of data.

(Club leagues literally have 10 seasons x 380 games and as many as 300+ OBS)

A backtesting sytem that finds games that "could" be considered a value play as the odds outweigh the risk - and there is a reasonable chance of the result occuring.

These are the bets shown in GREEN BACKGROUND along with the price.

There are six home wins (including Scotland !!) and five draws (including Israel) so I suspect UK punters will be hoping that this works again.

Arsenal back on top of the table

Arsenal returned to the top of the Premier League after a convincing 3-1 win over Reading at the Madejski Stadium on Monday night.

Mathieu Flamini, Emmanuel Adebayor and Alexander Hleb were all on target for the Gunners, with Nicky Shorey grabbing a late consolation for Reading in what was a dominant Arsenal display.

Cesc Fabregas - a Gooner legend alreadyCesc Fabregas picked up the man-of-the-match award from Sky Sports with another top display. The 20-year-old has starred in Arsenal's unbeaten start to the season and he admits he is now ready to ditch plans to return to Spain.

Fabregas said : "When I first came to England my idea was to go back to Spain one day ... But the truth is that now I'm happier every day and I love London, the people and the club.

"Every day I have more desire to stay here for a long time, for the rest of my career" - he added.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Win Aston Villa tickets at 32Red

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You can win a whole range of stuff:
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Click to visit 32 Red and find out more.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Why did Mourinho leave? Video evidence!

OK - it's just a parody - and it's quite old - but this one made me laugh.

Drogba - get up !!

and just to show that Jose Morinho actually had a sense of humour - take a look at this genuine response to a surprise question at a Chelsea interview session.

Mr Mourinho was happy to answer the question - despite the "PR suit" trying to sidestep it all - I think I'm developing a soft spot for Jose now he's gone.

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/11

And I've also done the Italian betting sheet as well in time for Saturday afternoon's Serie A games.

The Italian sheet seems to be pretty consistant this weekend - with most of the betting systems coming together to provide a strong direction for punters.

Mind you - please just remember that there were SEVEN draws in the 10 games in last weeks Serie A round and it was only our VaLUE betting draw system that saved us from disaster.

The "likely winners" went 0-4 for a 400 unit loss, but the draw system managed a 3-1 performance for a 510 unit profit !! So as you can see - even with the betting sheet and the number crunching done - it's not a simple path to profits.

Ok - with that warning out of the way - onto the picks :

Likely winners are forecast by BOTH the RES and MAR systems for :
Sampdoria to beat Empoli
Fiorentina to beat Udinese
Juventus to win at Parma
AS Roma to beat Cagliari

While there are single picks for :
MAR : +83 Inter Milan to beat Lazio
RES : 54% AC Milan to win at Atlanta

The DISCOVERED VALUE draw system has three likely candidates this weekend.
Palermo v Napoli @ 3.00
Reggina v Genoa @ 2.90
Torino v Catania @ 3.15

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/12

Here's the betting Sheet for England's Premier League for the weekend of Nov 10th through until Nov 12th.

On Saturday the sheet thinks that :
Liverpool will beat Fulham
West Ham have a chance of winning at Derby County

Sunday sees home wins picked on double systems for :
Chelsea to beat Everton
Tottenham to beat Wigan Athletic
Manchester United to beat Blackburn Rovers

and also single home win picks for :
Portsmouth to beat Manchesater City
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough

In terms of "value betting" there is just one pick this week as the Sheet thinks that 7.25 is far too high for Reading who have a 31% chance of upsetting Arsenal at the Madjeski Stadium.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 7 released.

Here's the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday night.

Click to see the full sized sheet

Remember that the European level there is significantly less data to work with - many sides will only play 6 games at this level in a season and then may miss a season by failing to qualify so it's harder to get quality picks.

Take special care to see the number of previous games being used to produce that pick (the OBS field) and if there is less than 50 games then treat the percentages with healthy scepticism.

Remember that typically 100 points of margin means and average win expectancy of 1 goal. Also remember that an average of 1 goal might mean a 2 goal win in one match and a draw in a second match - averages are tricky things when data is small.

Tonights best picks (dual system picked)

Barcelona to beat Rangers @ 1.23 at Betsson
Manchester United to beat Dynamo Kiev @ 1.20 at Interwetten
Sevilla to win at Steaua Bucharest @ 1.75 at Interwetten
Arsenal to win at Slavia Prague @ 1.57 at Ladbrokes

Possible picks (res% system only)

AS Roma to win at Sporting Lisbon @ 2.60 at Interwetten

Inter Milan to beat CSKA Moscow @ 1.30 at Bet365
Fenerbahce to beat PSV Eindhoven @ 2.00 at Bet365

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

England : Betting Sheet Review

So how did we go in England ?

we said :

Arsenal v Manchester United
- 1) This game is hard to pick
- 2) A draw is the most likely result
- 3) Overs 2.5 goals is probably the best bet

See my full match preview for my betting view on the game.

As for the other picks they should not surprise you :
Aston Villa to beat Derby County @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Birmingham @ 1.73 at Bet365
Chelsea to win at Wigan @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes

And on Monday night :
Man City to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at Bet365

I make that pretty good advice - and a perfect weekend.
Enjoy your beers - and catch ya next time.
Plenty of free beers

Sunday, November 04, 2007

NFL : Week #9 Betting Sheet

I've been working like a slave (actually I sat down after a very nice lunch) in order to the the NFL sheet ready for week #9.

We had an ordinary week last week - with only Eddie (the underdog backer) really making any profits to talk about.

Week #9 is dominated by the big game between the Colts and the Pats - but it will be a tough game to make a strong pick on - and there are other easier games to look at.

What does it all mean? Let me spell out the picks for the four systems.

MARVIN (MoneyLine Bankers) :: Season 34-10 +5% yield

According to our rankings we have five likely winners - although I notice that the public really only agree on the first two choices (Pittburgh and San Diego) so we will see.

Abe (Against the Spread) :: Season 16-11-2 +15% yield

Abe had his fierst losing week in a month last weekend - going 1-2 from 3 picks. Has he lost his touch? We don't think so. Five more choices this weekend.

Eddie (underdog ML) :: Season 9-20 +2% yield

Eddie is a tough system to follow - as he'll lose almost 2/3rds of his bets but the high prices on his dogs tends to make it worth the risk.
H - NEW YORK JETS @ 2.83

Vincent (Value ML) :: Season 20-27 +20% yield

Finally to my favourite system - Vincent's value betting - where he thinks the prices outweigh the risks.

As you can see all four systems are acutally in slight profit so far this season in the NFL - which is a major suprise to me as I expected Marvin's "most likely" system to fail miserably.

Good luck with your Sunday bets.

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 4

After watching the big game between Arsenal and Manchester United, I've sat down and worked out the betting angles for Sunday's action in Italy's Serie A.

Click the image for the full size sheet

Likely Winners

The sheet has recommendations on four matches likely to finish with pickable winners.

Parma to beat Siena @ 1.91 at Bet365
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365
Roma to win at Empoli @ 1.67 at Bet365
Inter Milan to win at Juventus @ 2.80 at Bet365

Discovered Value Betting

In terms of betting on good potential value we also have a handful of draw options to have a look at.

Analysis of the sheet has found a lucrative little "gap" in the bookie odds in Italy's Serie A league where the away team is rated as a slight favourite - specifically between 0 and -30 MARgin.

This method enables us to hit draws at a 38% rate - and is yielding positive returns (between 5% and 25$) in each of the last six seasons.

Catania v Atlanta @ 3.00
Genoa v Palermo @ 3.00
Livorno v Udinese @ 3.05
Juventus v Inter Milan @ 3.10

And also we see some value on the home win in this game too :
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365

Good luck with your Italian football bets on Sunday.

Saturday, November 03, 2007

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 3/5

A big weekend of football on the card - including Arsenal v Manchester United and Blackburn v Liverpool.

Arsenal v Manchester United

Obviously both sides are rated highly with the spreadsheet giving Arsenal having a small 24/100th goal advantage with the game being played at the Emirates.

This advantage of 1/4 of a goal is actually pretty close to the norm - and gives a 45%-27%-28% breakdown over all games - but if you apply the secondary criteria of both teams beeing rated over 1050 then you get an interesting picture.

Just 16 games have been found in my English Premier League database for a 4-9-3 series of results suggesting that the draw is hugely over-priced for this game.

United have been the away side 8 times in those 16 games for a 3W-3D-2L record, and at Arsenal they've gone 1-1-1. Arsenal have been the home side in this situation 6 times, for a 2W-3D-1L record.

In those six home Arsenal "clash of the titans" - 20 goals were scored and the Over 2.5 goals bet won four times out of six.

So what does that all tell us?
- 1) This game is hard to pick
- 2) A draw is the most likely result
- 3) Overs 2.5 goals is probably the best bet

See my full match preview for my betting view on the game.

As for the other picks they should not surprise you :
Aston Villa to beat Derby County @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Birmingham @ 1.73 at Bet365
Chelsea to win at Wigan @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes

And on Monday night :
Man City to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at Bet365

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Liverpool Footballer Riise Drops his Payslip.

Liverpool footballer John Arne Riise has been embarrased as a copy of his wage slip from the football club has been appearing on the internet.

Images of the pay packet, containing the player's address in Liverpool and his National Insurance number, have appeared on the internet revealing the 27-year-old earned £139,634.62 gross in August 2006.

We of course think that's totally irresponsible to show those details - ahem - so we've twinked them out in order to show the rest. (click to see fullsize)

Click the image for a fdull size version

Reading like something out of a computer game you find out that Riise has the following payments (with our guesses as to why) :
- a £120,000-a-month basic salary,
- a £250 point bonus (only 250?? Was it a bad month?),
- a £4000 appearance bonus (four games @ £1000 match?)
- and a £15,384.62 Champions League payment for making the group stage.

Of course it's not all beer and takeaway curries for Riise. He has expenses too.

On the downside, he pays £55,508.28 in tax EVERY month, and a sizable NIC payment of £1,611.67 too.

But perhaps the most surprising thing is that the club also charges him a £65 meal bill and £36 for a match ticket - perhaps for a game he wasn't playing in? No wonder players are upset to be left out.

All that left Riise with a net wage of £82,413.67 for the month. Not a bad way to make a living eh?

Carling Cup Outright Betting

CArling Cup football betting odds
Chelsea remain favourites to win the Carling Cup after overcoming a mighty scare to beat Leicester 4-3 at Stamford Bridge this week.

Frank Lampard completed a hat-trick with an injury-time winner to put the holders into the quarter-finals and Chelsea are 11/4 favourites (3.75) with Ladbrokes to defend the trophy.

Arsenal's latest batch of young Gunners cruised into the last eight with a 3-0 win at Sheffield United. Last season's runners-up were comfortable victors at Bramall Lane thanks to Eduardo da Silva's brilliant double and a deflected third from Denilson.

were made to work harder as they overcame Cardiff 2-1 at Anfield. But a Steven Gerrard winner soon after proved good enough for the Reds.

Spurs are fourth favourites after Juande Ramos' first game in charge ended in a 2-0 home win over Blackpool. Robbie Keane and Pascal Chimbonda got the goals.

Manchester City (1-0 winners at Bolton), Blackburn (2-1 winners at Portsmouth) and Everton (1-0 extra-time winners at Luton) are all 11/1 at bet365 while West Ham are the 14/1 outsiders of the all-Premier League quarter-final line-up.

The draw for the quarterfinals takes place on Saturday.

Chelsea 3.75 @ Ladbrokes
Arsenal 4.50 @ Bet365
Liverpool 5.50 @ BetFred
Tottenham 10.00 @ Ladbrokes
Manchester City 12.00 @ Bet365

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Italy : Wednesday Betting Sheet Oct 31

We've got a full round of fixtures in Italy on Wednesday night and plenty of picks to consider from the sheet.

There are as many as SIX likely winners picked - all of them home wins - and all of the home sides rated as a full goal better than their opponents.

Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet
Juventus to beat Empoli @ 1.35 at PinnacleSports
Inter_Milan to beat Genoa @ 1.33 at PinnacleSports
Atalanta to beat Cagliari @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Fiorentina to beat Napoli @ 1.70 at Bet365

All of these odds are rated in black ink on the sheet meaning that they're fair odds.

(all odds updated as at 9:30am GMT)

There are four draws and two home wins that are indicated as being potential "discovered value" bets on Wednesday night.

Udinese to draw with Torino @ 3.25 at VC Bet
Siena to draw with Catania @ 2.95 at Canbet
Sampdoria to draw with Milan_AC @ 3.20 at Bet365
Roma_AS to draw with Lazio @ 3.45 at PinnacleSports

As well as :
Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet

It will be interesting to see how the two differing systems fare.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Blackjack : Learn how to win

Blackjack winning strategy
Do you like to supplement your sports betting with a session or two of blackjack ?

I prefer sports betting mainly, as I like to get the odds on my side, and I also like a hour of poker or two (MTT tournments rather than cash games - it's more relaxing) but recently I've been hitting the blackjack tables too.

I know what you're thinking - "Gooner don't bother the odds are not on your side" - but I've been having a little bit of success using some basic blackjack strategy cards that I found online at's blackjack blog stream.

Take a look at the posts in that link above - especially the three little tables produced by Kishan Neilsen. They're spot on.

I'm familiar with basic strategy - the means to play your cards in the most efficient way - or at least I thought I was but I was surprised how often I was playing it wrong in regards to choosing splits - and some of the double down options.

You can test out your new Blackjack skills by playing for free by choosing one of the no download blackjack tables on our free casino games page.

So far I'm hitting winning sessions at about 7-8 times out of 10 - although you do have to learn to know when to call it quits - and don't get greedy.

Give it a go on the free tables and see whether the tables help your blackjack play.

Mourinho back to Chelsea ?

Mourinho returns to Chelsea?Could Jose Mourinho be back at Stamford Bridge as early as December?

Well that's one possiblity as it seems that "the special one" is odds on to get the vacant manager's job at Valencia who will be visiting Chelsea in the Champions League on December 11.

Mourinho is quoted at 4/7, with the closest other candidate Fabio Capello at 5/1.

See This bookielabrat post for all the odds quotes.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Italy : Betting Sheet Review

A very interesting Sunday in Serie A - with AC Milan slumping to another home defeat - and it's time to check out the results to see how the sheet went.

What did we get right?
Not as much as we would have liked - but we did call the big game correctly :
Roma to win at Milan @ 3.55
Parma to beat Livorno @ 1.80

What went pear-shapped?
Juve actually lost at Napoli (we had them winning)
Inter could not beat Palermo (drawing 0-0)
Empoli lost at home to Atlanta (we thought they'd win)

Value Betting Draw System.
The value betting system finished all square - with one of the three matches finishing all squre to get our money back.
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00 - ended 0-0 :-)
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00 - Udinese won 1-0
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20 - Torino won 2-0

Overall that's 8 bets - and just three winners - but importantly we didn't lose money and did OK on a weekend where upsets hit some other punting systems hard.

800 units staked and 835 units returned for a small +35 unit profit.
I'll try to lock in better returns next week.

England : Betting Sheet Review

So how did we score on the weekend with the English betting spreadsheet? Did we make some beer money?

What did we get right ?
Manchester United @ 1.22
Chelsea @ 1.55
Reading @ 2.85
Sunderland v Fulham Draw @ 3.35

What did we get wrong?
Portsmouth to beat West Ham
Derby to beat Everton

In my defence, Portsmouth missed a last minute penalty - and as for Derby - yeah OK - perhaps I was blinded a bit by the 3.75 odds.

Still - I think that we're on a winner this weekend as that's a total of six bets at 100 units each which returned 897 units.

That is a +297 unit return or a yield of almost +50%.
I'll chalk that up as a winning week. Enjoy !!

Sunday, October 28, 2007

NFL : Week #8 Betting Sheet

Click to see the sheet

MARVIN (Most Likely)


EDDIE (Extreme Underdogs)


Saturday, October 27, 2007

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

Next we head to Italy, and see if we can do an "Italian Job" on the bookmakers prices in Serie A.

click to see the full serie a spreadsheet output

The sheet has quite a few picks this week - and several away picks which is always a tricky thing to bet on in Italy.

The sheet is backing three of the the big sides to win on the road in Italy this weekend.

The first two games might not surprise as Juventus to win at Napoli and Inter Milan to win at Palermo will appeal to a lot of punters especially with prices above even money.

But the sheet also likes the look of AS Roma to win at AC Milan as well, although remember that it does not take potential injuries into account so Totti's absence could be vital.

On the home front - probable wins are seleected for Empoli to be Atlanta and Parma to beat Livorno and again the prices are remarkable good.

If you're value betting in Italy that usually means taking draws - and that is exactly what the system selects this weekend with three likely ties :
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20

Good luck if you're punting.

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

I've sat down down with a strong cup of coffee and gone througth all the odds prices and betting lines, run them through the spreadsheet and got this weekend's output for the English Premier League.

Click to see the full sized sheet

This week there are a couple of high profile games - and I've fine-tuned the prediction profiles so it will mean less observations - and so possibly more inaccuracy - so I'll add a commentary.

So what does it all tell us?

Firstly you can see that the only game picked as a likely winner in Manchester United to beat Middlesbro (bet you didn't need the sheet to tell you that one).

But just a word on the 0% win chance for Middlesbro. All that means is that in the 27 similar circumstances of a mid range side (ranked around 915) visiting a top ranked side (ranked at at 1,110) that they've never won. If I'd stuck with the standard system this week then we would have got a 74%-24%-3% breakdown - showing that Boro's chances are above 0% - but not by much.

However, one bet that Boro fans might want to consider is the DRAW at 6.50. in the 27 previous occasions like this in the last 10 season of the English Premier League the underdogs have managed to DRAW on 7 occasions (about a 1 in 4 chance) and so the 6.50 on offer looks the best single value of the day.

Some high profile examples of the shock draw? Man Utd 0-0 Sunderland in April 2006, and Chelsea 2-2 Fulham in December 2006. They do happen.

Other possible winners (accoring to the RES % system) are Chelsea to beat Man City and Portsmouth to beat West Ham - both considered around 60% likely and at fairish value.

If you're a fan of taking underdogs at a good price with home advantage -then you could do well to look at the chances of Reading to beat Newcastle and Derby to beat Everton.

Both of the home sides appear to be priced well above fair value at between 140%-150% and are considered between 40% and 50% likely to win - not bankers but significantly better than the public generally thinks.

One game that looks to have a high draw chance is up at the Stadium of Light as Sunderland entertain Fulham on Saturday afternoon.

The two sides are rated very closely together, remember that a MARgin of -6 means that we have them at just 6/100ths of a goal apart, but there is more to it than that.

Both sides are rated quite low at between 900 and 920, and the output shows that in the 37 similar games the finished with 14 HW, 14 D, and 9 AW, which shows a slight advantage to the home side - but also a draw chance of 38%.

That makes the 3.35 available on the draw at Centrebet a good value play.

So what about the game at Anfield on Sunday - as the Arsenal travel north to face Liverpool at a venue that has seen them beaten 3 times in a row?

Well I just wouldn'r relay on the sheet data for your bet on this game - with just 5 similar matchups in recent times we've had a results split of 2-1-2 which would appear to make Arsenal a good bet - but 4 results means nothing at all.

Check back onto the main site later on in the weekend - and I'll run up a preview that takes a closer look at this match.

Ok - That's it from me - good luck with your weekend bets.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Spurs sack boss - It's Jol Over

Tottenham have confirmed the departure of Martin Jol as manager following the UEFA Cup defeat to Getafe.

Spurs have issued a statement revealing the board asked Jol and assistant Chris Hughton to stand down, although there were reports earlier in the evening that the Dutchman had resigned.

A statement from the club read: "We can confirm that the board has this evening asked Martin Jol, club manager and Chris Hughton, first-team coach to stand down from their positions with immediate effect."

Jol added: "I can understand the position of the club in light of the results. I have thoroughly enjoyed my time here. Tottenham Hotspur is a special club and I want to thank the terrific staff and players.

"For me the fans were always amazing with their support so I would also like to say thank you - I shall never forget them."

Development coach Clive Allen and youth team boss Alex Inglethorpe will take charge of the first team for the time being, with Juande Ramos the overwhelming favourite to take over in the long term. Gus Poyet, the former Spurs midfielder, has been linked with an assistant-boss role.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Oct 24 released.

Eight more matches in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night - and quite a few of the games appear to have some good options.

The sheet has several "likely winner" choices on Wednesday.

Most Likely winners (picked by both systems) :
AC Milan to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Real Madrid to beat Olympiakos @ 1.30 @ Bet365 (latest price)
Benfica to beat Celtic @ 2.00 at Interwetten (latest price)

Other Likely winners (picked by one system ) :
Chelsea to beat Schalke at 1.55 @ Eurobet
Valencia to win at Rosenborg at 1.67 at Ladbrokes
Liverpool to win at Benfica @ 1.75 at Interwetten

Expectation is 3 or 4 home winners, and 1 or 2 away winnners on these picks.

There are NO discovered winners tonight although draws in both Rosenborg v Valencia and Besiktas v Liverpool might be worth chasing the the draw prices got a little higher.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Oct 23 released.

We've run the numbers and can now release the betting spreadsheet output for Tuesday Oct 23rd in the3 UEFA Champions League.

(click the image for a full sized sheet)

A quick rundown through the "likely winner" picks for the eight games on Tuesday night - typically we would expect to go 3-1 with predictions in this range :

Most Likely winners (picked by both systems) :
Arsenal to beat Slavia Prague at 1.20 at Bet365
PSV Eindhoven to beat Fenerbahce at 1.83 @ Ladbrokes

Most Likely winners (picked by one system ) :
Sevilla to beat Steaua Bucharest at 1.25 at Betfred
Barcelona to win at Rangers at 1.70 @ Interwetten


Also - after getting a few requests on the forum (Robbie, College_Football) we will also cover the "discovered value" system picks as well.

These are picks that are not "likely winners" usually - but by keeping a record of similar bets we've found that profits can usually be made by taking a handful of these good value bets each matchday.

Discovered Value Bets :
PSV Eindhoven to beat Fenerbahce at 1.83 @ Ladbrokes

Stuttgart v Lyon at 3.40 at Bet365
Rangers v Barcelona at 3.75 at Bet365
CSKA Moscow v Inter Milan @ 3.40 @ Ladbrokes

Lyon to beat Stuttgart @ 2.70 @ Betsson

As you can see by the prices we will need 2 or more of these discovered winners to hit in order to make a profit - and you will probably ned to play the Stuttgart v Lyon match by with betting X2 or laying Stuttgart.

Good luck with your punts.