Search This Blog

Sunday, April 29, 2007

Taking your poker bankroll from $0 to $10,000 in a year

How many poker freeroll players out there dream of making a living from poker playing?

Well here is a way to go from a starting bankroll of $0 to $10,000 in a year - if you're as talented as Chris "Jesus" Ferguson.

There is a good blog post on from Mr Ferguson talking about the process - and the importance of money management discipline.

It's well worth a read ...

Friday, April 27, 2007

The Picks Sheet - England 28/30 Apr

The English Premier League Picks Sheet

OK, it's been a while since I've posted one to the blog - you can of course always nip onto the betting forum to find them - but after a deluge of email from people I'll try harder to post them in both places.

Here is the sheet :

And just to summarise it for you :

There are four "likely picks" :
Chelsea (75%) to beat Bolton @ 1.30 at Canbet
Arsenal (71%) to beat Fulham @ 1.45 at Interwetten
Sheff_U (70%) to beat Watford @ 1.65 at Betsson
Blackburn (56%) to beat Charlton @ 2.10 at Bet365

You'll need 3 of these 4 to win in order to show a profit with these selections.

There are also EIGHT potential value bets on :
Portsmouth (43%) to beat Liverpool @ 3.30 at VCBet (141% value)
Everton (26%) to beat Man Utd @ 5.25 at Gamebookers (136% value)
West Ham (38%) to beat Wigan @ 3.40 at Bet365 (130% value)
Fulham (27%) to DRAW at Arsenal @ 4.50 Generally (121% value)
Blackburn (56%) to beat Charlton @ 2.10 at Bet365 (118% value)
Sheff_U (70%) to beat Watford @ 165 at Bet365 (115% value)
Middlesbro (42%) to beat Tottenham @ 2.70 at Bet365 (113% value)
Aston Villa (33%) to beat Man_City @ 3.40 at Centrebet (112% value)

These ones are much chancier and so we only need 3 of 8 to win in order to show a profit.

Good luck.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Chelsea v Liverpool - Money Back Special at Paddy Power

Paddy Power offering cash back deal on UEFA CL

I do like Irish bookmaker Paddy Power

They jumped up to second place on our bookmaker list (behind Bet365) in the last quarterly bookmaker review - and a big reason for that was their continual stream of money-back offers and refunds that they paid out to all betting customers - both new and existing punters.

They're at it again on Wednesday night, offering the chance of getting your cash back on goalscorer, correct score and scorecast bets in the Chelsea v Liverpool game if it finishes in a 0-0 draw.

That's not an unlikely proposition at all, in fact the 0-0 score is priced at a lowish 6.50-7.00 at most bookies making it one of the favoured scorelines. They must be mad !

So it goes without saying that if you're considering a goalscorer, correct score or scorecast bet on Chelsea v Liverpool in midweek then you should be betting it at PaddyPower bookmakers - if you don't then you're just throwing away money to be playing anywhere else.

New Customers who join PaddyPower via our site also get 3 x £10 free bets if your first bet is a £30 single or more ...

Check out our PaddyPower bookmaker review and Paddy Power Free Bet offer page for more details.

Centrebet 50 GBP bonus ends Thursday!!

Hurry for your €75 bonus

Phew! a tough weekend picking winners in the English Premier League - and no wonder with 7 of the 10 games ending in draws.

But we've got something to dull the pain of any financial losses as Aussie bookmaker Centrebet are still offerin their GBP £50 (or €75) Free Bet offer to all users - until Thursday.

( That's also equivalent to 100USD / 125AUD / 75EUR / 600 NOK-SEK-DKK if you prefer a different currency )

So if you haven't joined up to CentreBet and got your £50 free bet then make sure that you use Centrebet for this weeks Champions League games !!

So - don't delay ... either visit CentreBet now ... or read our Centrebet Bookmaker review on the main site now.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Did your horse fall in the Grand National ?

Victor Chandler pays out 300,000

Just a heads-up for punters ...

IF you bet on the Grand National at VC Bet and your horse fell over then you're eligable for the freebet courtesy of a GBP 300,000 payout by the bookmaker.

But that free bet is only open for 7 days - so make sure that you get along and spend it !!

Check out BookieLabRat.Com's Bonus News Section for more details or go straight to VCBet now.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

BET365 cannot split FA Cup Finalists


It's Manchester United v Chelsea in the FA Cup final next month after both came through their weekend semis and the bookies can't split them.

Our #1 rated bookmaker Bet365 quote both at 13/8 (2.63) to win the final in 90 minutes play and each at 10/11 (1.91) to emerge as the first FA Cup winners at the new Wembley.

You can get all the latest FA Cup Odds online at who have set up a special page to monitor all the markets and prices from over a dozen safe and secure UK and European bookmakers.

I'll look at the exotic markets closer to the time.

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Manchester United favourites to win the FA Cup.


Manchester United are odds-on for the FA Cup following their 4-1 demolition of Watford.

A Wayne Rooney brace and a goal each for Cristiano Ronaldo and Kieran Richardson ensured a smooth passage to Wembley for United, who were far too strong for Watford and are now odds-on across the board for an FA Cup triumph.

Sporting Odds are a best-priced 10/11 about United, with Chelsea available at 6/4 and Blackburn 14/1 (at BetFred) .

Chelsea face Blackburn on Sunday at Old Trafford in the second semi-final.

Friday, April 13, 2007

Doyle's Room moves to Microgaming Software

Doyle Brunson Poker Room Software Change

Speculation and rumour on where the famous Doyles online poker venue would relocate came to an end this week with the announcement that the popular site has joined the expanding Microgaming Poker Network.

Doyle's Room launched in 2004 and since that time has established itself as one of the world's most popular online poker sites.

In addition to offering one of the largest tournament selections in the industry, Doyle's also draws players to its extremely popular Bounty tournaments, a series of weekly events in which players vie to win prizes by knocking out the bounty players.

See more details at the blog post at

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Canbet have a $2500 poker freeroll on Thursday

$2500 Poker Freeroll at Canbet

If you like poker freerolls then may I suggest checking out our Canbet Poker Review on the main site and joining up asap.

Canbet have a $2,500 freeroll starting in 16 hours (called Grand National FreeRoll) where the top 80 places are paid.

Canbet are part of the OnGame Network, and have been around for ages - they're a good safe place to play - but unfortunately US players will have to miss out as they're not accepted at Canbet these days.

OK. The freeroll starts at 21:00 UK time, or 20:00 in Europe, or 8am (!!) my time ... so I've gotta set the alarm clock to wake up.

It's limited to 2,000 places - there are still over 1,000 spots left - I'm entered and plan to play so I hope to see you there ... look out for me ( PK10PK ) .. and remember I NEVER bluff ...

Here's a direct link to CanBet Poker if you want to check it out now.

Monday, April 09, 2007

The Sheet -> England - Mon April 9th

Easter Monday SpreadSheet

As you might imagine with the top 3 sides sitting it out in preparation for the midweek Champions League games - there are no likely winners on Monday.

there is a bit of value lying about.

(1) Opposing Arsenal
Although the two sides at St James's Park are well matched on Monday (rankings say just one point separates them) the home advantage does tilt the likely winning chances significantly in Newcastles favour - yet they're still outsiders.

Choose whether you're gonna back Newcastle - or back them with a +1/2 handicap start - or even cover the 1x - but tha Arsenal side offer no value - statistically at least.

Of course Gooners everywhere can hope that someone in North London will take the time to explain to our front line what the ****ing goalnets are for and how if they doin't bloody pull finger and convert one chance in 10 then they'll be on the scrapheap next ****ing season ...

But that doesn't seem to be the kindly Mr Wengers style ...

So given that we will concede at least one goal from some sort of set-piece or longball the best we can hope for is one goal from 123 attempts and a 1-1 draw ..

(2) Consider Wigan / Man City & Reading to win away from home.
none of these sides are LIKELY winners - but they are well priced and all three sides are reasonable chances (30%+) to win and offering value above 3.30 so you only need to hit one to make a profit.

So that's four potential bets - and we need two to come off to see a profit.

Do the maths before sending in abuse eh?

Arsenal and Manchester United failed on Saturday afternoon, with both sides losing despite dominating their respective games ... and once again I get a mailbag full of abuse from idiot punters who've bet big on these two games.

One of the things I read (although I just deleted most of them) was a rant asking how I can rate Arsenal at 76% or Man United at 66% and then still carry on with publishing the spreadsheet when they lose?

It's important understand probability - 76% is not a guaranteed winner - neither is 95% for that matter - and 76% favourites will still fail to win a quarter of the time.

If you bet big on one game then you risk taking a loss. If you spread the risk over several games then the calculations are more liekly to deliver profits.

On Friday/Saturday I recommended :

5 Likely winners.
Everton / Chelsea and Boro won - while Arsenal and ManYoo lost. If you'd put 100 quid on each of them then you'd have returned £488 for a loss of just £12.

That's not too bad an a day of "shocks".

6 Value Bets.
Chelsea, Boro, and Portsmouth (yes Pompey!!) won - while Sheff Utd, Arsenal, and Reading all lost.

Let's assume that you stake these smaller because they're riskier and put 50 quid on each of these then you lay out £300 and get £507.50 back !

That's around £200 up overall - albeit thanks largely to Portsmouth's shock win - but then it was part of the plan to take advantage of a good price.

You cannot expect all picks to come in. If you decide to take one or two games - then that's your decision but you need to accept that it's your choice whether you win or lose.

The favourites went 3-2 for a small loss, the value bets went 3-3 for a tidy profit ... and to me it backed up the real benefits of the spreadsheet to help to quantify risk.

Remember that gambling is a adults past-time - so if you do choose to bet and you lose - then take it on the chin and admit who had the final decision and stop firing of crappy emails eh?

Thanks for reading - now back to normal service.

Saturday, April 07, 2007

The Spreadsheet Picks - England Apr 6/7


There are five picks in the sheet :
Everton (60%), Arsenal (76%), Chelsea (76%), Boro (67%) to win at home, and Man United (66%) to win away.

The home sides have the better prices this week with six sides looking to be priced attractively :
Reading (164%)!! are standout with Chelsea (110%), Arsenal (110%), Boro (114%), Sheff Utd (115%) and Portsmouth (112%) all better than fair prices.

Things to note :
(1) Value seems to be favouring the home sides this weekend.

(2) Centrebet have done it again taking 4 best home prices and 5 best away prices for 9/20 or 45% best pricing. Top work that Bookmaker !!

(3) PaddyPowers price for Reading of 4.33 is way outside the rest and is the reason for offering so much value. Whether Reading can actually win is another matter.

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Who's the best bookmaker for ... correct score bets?

Which bookmaker is best for correct score betting

Now we will get into specific markets and deal with the question of

Which bookie is best for correct score bets?

First let's start with an overview of correct score betting.

This style of betting is as simple as it sounds (in principal). You put down some cash on predicting an exact score in a football game - and if you win you get paid out at large prices ranging from 6.00 (5/1) to as much as 101.00 (100-1).

It attracts the young punter, and the desperate bettor because of the illusion of being easy money but the reality is that the bookmakers are trimming plenty of fat from their odds and these markets typically have an over-round of 130% to 150% meaning that the bookie will make a 30-50% profit no matter what result.

So - usually I'd say avoid correct score betting - and no bookie prices are really fair .... but there are three exceptions and we will go through each of them now.

We know the sort of team that I'm talking about - strong squad, with a great defensive back five and continental manager, that will be likely to take the lead and then sit on that lead until the end of the game.

Chelsea, Juventus, Liverpool are all sides to consider and the best place to play these bets are the mainstream bookmakers who make so much margin on this market overall that they are reluctant to change their prices quickly.

BEST BOOKMAKERS FOR THIS PLAN : Bet365 BetFred CanBet EuroBet Gamebookers and Ladbrokes as they'll all usually offer at least 6.00 for the 1-0 win.

We've all seen games when the price on the home side is far too short - yes they should be favoured to win but not to the lengths that the odds say.

The price on the away win is at 3.50 or so which doesn't appeal, but the price on a 1-0 away win will usually be up around 9.00 to 10.00. Those prices are almost at fair value because when the underdog wins away from home then my stats show that about 40-45% of those wins are by a 1-0 scoreline.

The general betting public love their favourites - and they just don't believe that 12% of home bankers to end up as a loss - with the most likely upset scoreline a 1-0 win to the away underdogs.

However what's even better is that you can get onto the betting exchanges and put a lazy tenner on that scoreline and you'll get offered prices as high as 12.00 or 13.00 (12-1) for the bet.

So when you're betting against public opinion the best place to get a correct score bet on is the two main betting exchanges.


The final way to make correct score betting pay is to take advantage of those bookmaker promotions that will pay out bonus money if you get a high scoring result.

Right now PremierBet are offering to payout a 100% bonus up to £250 if you take a bet that's at high enough odds as your first bet. (read the PremierBet bonus details here)

Now this strategy is not a banker bet (obviously) and you only get one shot at it (it must be your first bet remember) but it does mean that you get the odds on your side.

For correct score betting the relevant details are :
- odds of 5.50 to 9.00 mean a 40% bonus
- odds of 9.50 to 17.00 mean a 60% bonus
- bigger odds mean a 100% bonus.

So you can join up at PremierBet and place a wager of a £10 (€15) or more on your first bet and get a huge potential boost to your payout.


Correct score betting is not a great long term strategy, but there are occassions when it can pay to have a look at these big priced bets.

Just remmber to :
- Use the biggest mainstream bookmakers for the 1-0 home wins
- Use the betting exchanges for the upset 1-0 away wins
- And risk a tenner on taking PremierBet's bonus challenge on.

Good luck.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

The Sheet - Midweek UEFA CL 3/4 Apr 2007

Here is the sheet for the four Champions league Quearter Final games - and as you can see there are no "likely picks" in this round as the quality of the field tightens up.

There are of course the usual "value bets" to consider.

AC Milan (52%) are considered the most likely winner of the round as they face Baryern Munich and with a best price of 2.10 (at PinnacleSports) that's considered better than fair value at 109%.

Elesewhere PSV Eindhoven are favoured over Liverpool, Chelsea to beat Valenica (although the Valencia win price is huge and good value) and Man United are possibles to beat Roma - however all three games could easily finish in draws.

However, one thing to note is AS Roma's low home rating - which may have been affected by playing games in empty stadiums a couple of seasons back.

If I manually adjust their home rating to a "nominal" value of 1000 then the expected percentages become 41-32-27 tilted in AS Roma's favour ... and the home win bet is then 114% value.

Of course it's your call which number is more accurate.

Good luck with your bets this week.