Value Bets 15th to 17th Oct - International football.

THe Euro20024 qualifying chunders on - an unwanted and unwelcome break to European club football - but I've still got a stats spteadsheet with potential bettig value for you - and here is it.

As you can see in the output of the next 3 days and 22 games there is only a handful of betting opportunities - and all of them are based on calulations involving under 100 games (because international teams don't play often) so the numbers could easily be skewed and/or just plain wrong. This means don't be betting on these games with anything more than small bets - for interest only.

Two draws (which are always risky and no more than 40% likely at best), a home win where Belgium are avery surprising price, and a bet against Luxembourg that might be flawed because the Lux's have been over-achieving in this campaign and have improved from awful to plain ordinary.

Good luck - and I'll see you on Thursday when we get back to club football

Value Bets 12th to 14 Oct - International Football

Here is the spreadsheet for midweek action in the Euro2024 Qualification matches.

The sheet recommends 6 matches to bet on and all the picks look like good value choices to me. Some are a bit risky - sure - but the odds are good and some odds are even growing as people lump on the favourites instead.

Remember it's not an exact science with all these games - there isn't enough data in some matches (note the OBS column)- for example the Netherlands v France game only has 8 previous games in Europe where the teams have been ranked similarly - but 2.80+ on a home win for the Dutch? Yes please. I just got 3.04 !!

You also have to work out how to play angles in games like Austria v Belgium where two options are suggested. Personally? I'm taking Belgium AH+0 to get draw insurance - but each bettor will have their own risk profile and betting styles.

Recommended bookmakers to use :

USA and CANADA players can use BETONLINE or BOOKMAKER or BOVADA
While UK / EURO / CAN / AUS / NZ can play at BET365

Good luck !

Rugby World Cup : Ireland v New Zealand - France v South Africa - Southern Hemisphere final looms?

So the Rugby World group games are done - well the ones that matter anyway and we have our Quarter-Finals line-ups.

Let's be clear about this - there are just two quarter-finals that matter - France v South Africa, and Ireland v New Zealand - as the top four sides in the World face-off as EVERYONE knew they would over 2 years ago when the draw for this rugby world cup was completed.

France and Ireland both won their group matches against their Southern Hemisphere rivals (New Zealand and South Africa respectively), but you cannot help to get the feeling that South Africa were very comfortable in slipping to a narrow defeat against Ireland once they knew that a loss would ensure that the Boks would avoid meeting the All Blacks in the Quarter-Finals.

The two match-ups now favour the Southern Hemisphere sides for me, And I will not be surprised if both South Africa and New Zealand progress from the quarters, romp past weak semi-final opposition and meet in the final.

One the other side we have Wales likely to face Argentina, while England will probably meet and beat Fiji. But these games are fairly irrelevant because the finalists will almost certainly come from the top four quarter-finalists.

Here are my estimates of various chances in the QFs :
- Wales vs Argentina (60/40)
- Ireland vs New Zealand (35/65)
- England vs Fiji (80/20)
- France vs South Africa (35/65)

Ireland run the very real risk of being run off their feet against New Zealand who will be very focused after several defeats in the last two years, while the Springboks will dominate posession, and territory and will likely grind the French into submission.

If they progress a expected then I give both South Africa and New Zealand an 80%+ chance in their semi-finals. And it's only as low as 80% because of the current vagaries in rules and refereeing meaning that an early red card cannot be ruled out - and that would turn any match expectation on it's head.

And if THAT happens a 50/50% chance against each other in the final ...

Value Bets for 8th October.

The value betting blogs will get shorter and shorter - unless I see comments in the posts.

Here is Sunday's selection.

Monza v Salernitana DRAW at 3.90
Lazio v Atalanta DRAW at 3.40
Leverkusen v Cologne DRAW at 5.50
Bayern Munich v Freiburg DRAW @ 8.50
Atl. Madrid v Real Sociedad DRAW @ 3.50
ALAVES to beat Real Betis @ 2.80
GETAFE to win at CELTA VIGO @ 4.00
GRANADA to beat Barcelona @ 7.50

Two Sports Betting Reviews for Canada - bet365 Ontario and Bodog.eu

What do I do during the week ? I take a regular review of the betting landscape and check out some of the best betting options out there for different countries.

This week it's Canada, and after mucking around I decided it was just time to Get out on the blog and git'r done - so these are the two sites that made the top two - with a preference depending on where you live.

bet365 Ontario Canada
bet365 is one of the top online sports betting sites and the UK-based sportsbook has entered the Ontario market in Canada as a provincially regulated Ontario sports betting sites.

If you're betting on North American sports, you won't be disappointed with bet365. From the NFL and NHL to the NBA and MLB, there's never a lack of action on the sportsbook. bet365 routinely offers some of the best lines in the industry.

Check my bet365 Ontario review post on the main site.

Bodog.eu for Canada
The Bodog.eu Sports betting website was launched in 1994 by the Canadian Calvin Ayre and at it's peak in 2004, Bodog was the biggest gambling brand in Canada and a powerhouse operator internationally. Bodog is still a prime destination for Canadian punters.

Here is what I found in my recent check of Bodog.eu for sports betting.

Value Bets - 3rd /4th October in Europe

Good evening ladies and gents - here is a bonus round of betting action in the UEFA Champions League.

This system is a little less reliable - simply because teams play less games and there is less data to crunch which you can see in the lower number of Observations (data points) in the spreadsheet output. So with just a handful of preliminaries complete, and just one round of group games lets keep stakes for this midweek round small. Maybe 1/5th of a normal bet - so the entire group is worth just 1 normal stake - just to test the waters.

Here is the output for all 16 group games this week.

Five bets are recommended, and I personally like four of them while I wondered about Benfica I have to admit that Benfica are a chance to win as they did beat Juventus in Italy last season - so perhaps the sheet is smarter than me? ;-)

If you’re not sure that you trust this system yet then just take each bet for $1 online. Or whatever minimum your bookie offers. We need a couple of wins to break even and/or make a profit average value suggests that we should make around 30% profit overall ... if my value ratings are good.

USA and CANADA players can use BETONLINE or BOOKMAKER or BOVADA
While UK / EURO / CAN / AUS / NZ can play at BET365

Good luck with your plays whichever ones you take ... and I will be back on Thursday with the weekend picks.