1st-3rd Sep 2023 - Value Betting in German Bundesliga

Hallo meine freunde, open a nice cold beer and join me as we look for good Bundesliga bets this weekend.

We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :

We've got have five games to look at - and few confusing picks to analyse (and change) :
1/ Leverkusen and Darmstadt to DRAW at odds of 7.00 with 21% chance for 147% value.
2/ HOFFENHEIM to beat Wolfsburg at odds of 2.55 with 43% chance for 110% value.
3/ FREIBURG to win at Stuttgart at odds of 3.20 with 38% chance for 122% value.
4/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat Bayern Munich at odds of 8.50 with 22% chance for 187% value.
5/ UNION BERLIN to beat RB Leipzig at odds of 3.30 with 53% chance for 175% value.

It looks simple enough, but there are a few fish hooks and traps and alters to discuss, and I'm going to alter the bets slightly as I think it improves the chances of a profitable weekend - we will see if you agree.

Firstly, let's start with the Leverkusen v Darmstadt game, where the form says Leverkusen win easily. Leverkusen have started with 2 wins, Darmstadt have two losses so it's easy to pick a home win - but football is not like that and streaks don't go on together. A price of just 1.20 on the home win means that Leverkusen would have to win 5 times out of 6 just to break even. That's a 83% win rate, and our sheet is giving it a 67% chance. The simpliest bet is to LAY against Leverkusen winning at the exchanges at 1.20 (Risk 1 unit to win 5) or bet on X2 at a price around 5 (it will probably be slightly less because bookies are B@st@rds!)

Hoffenheim to win at home against Wolfsburg is easy enough to see - Hoffenheim 4-0-2 in last six homes while WOlfsburg are 3-0-3 on the road, so 2.55 is a great price for a very plausible home win.

Stuttgart (2.25) and Freiburg (3.20) are evenly matched, both teams have about 38/39% chance to win in the sheets opinion, so we simply go wih the bigger price because we chase the best value.

Taking Monchengladbach to beat Bayern Munich seems foolish at first glance, but the sheet looks deeper than this season. Consider that Monchengladbach love to beat Bayern Munich - they've done it here is FOUR of the last six seasons at prices of 5.00, 6.50 and 7.00 and suddenly the bet looks better. OK - Bayern have Harry Kane and look good right now. But weird sh!t happens when these sides play. To make the bet slightly more likely we can include the draw as well as it's also great value - so you can take Monchengladbach double chance (1X) or LAY Bayern Munich on the exchange and you should get a 49% chance of a collect at a price of 3.00

Finally, Union Berlin to win at home is always a good bet if you can get over even money. Union Berlin went 11-6-0 at home last season. I know that RB Leipzig are a good side, but Union have won this fixture on each of the last three occasions by a 2-1 scoreline each time. I will note that the draw price is also fair value so you could consider hedging an insurance bet on the draw as cover if you are risk adverse.

And that's it. We will be taking FIVE bets in the Bundesliga this weekend, and I've modified them a wee bit as I chase getting more wins and a profit.

1st-3rd Sep 2023- Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Sip an espresso and join me in a stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :

We've got FIVE draws on offer and one away win this weekend :
1/ Sassuolo and Verona to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 33% chance for 119% value.
2/ Udinese and Frosinone to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 30% chance for 108% value.
3/ Atalanta and Monza to DRAW at odds of 4.00 with 28% chance for 112% value.
4/ Torino and Genoa to DRAW at odds of 3.30 with 33% chance for 109% value.
5/ Lecce and Salernitana to DRAW at odds of 3.30 with 34% chance for 112% value.
6/ JUVENTUS to win at Empoli at odds of 1.67 with 56% chance for 94% value.

WE will talk three of the draws together, as they're a statistical group. Three of the draws are picked between smaller sides that are evenly matched and based on 350-450 similar games over 20 years of Serie A we have draws at 33-34% with this group. And price over 3.00 for these games is good value.

In the case of Atalanta v Monza and Udinese v Frosinone it's slightly different as the home side is clearly rated better, but draws still occur 28-30% of the time - so if the draw price slips up to around 4.00 then it's a bet worth taking on.

Finally, a quick look at the Juventus to win pick tells me it's likely but I don't really like the price as it's slightly under target - so I'll leave this bet alone.

And that's it. We will be taking FIVE draw bets in Serie A this weekend, looking for two or more draws in order to secure a profitable return.

Buona fortuna, amici

1st-3rd Sep 2023- Value Betting in English Premier League

Then we head off to England and take a look at the Premier League for round four - and value it a little hard to find this weekend.

A review of last week shows just one of three bets landed - but it was the Arsenal v Fulham draw at 7.00 (which I eventaully got placed at 7.32!) and so although we only had one win - it was a good payday with 3 units bet a 7.32 units returned. Job done !

Here is the sheet output for this week .

The spreadsheet likes one good value bet :
1/ Liverpool and Aston Villa to draw at odds of 4.50 with 29% chance for 131% value rating


A quick look shows that Aston Villa are in good form, they draw 1-1 here last season, so you can see it's a reasonable chance anda good value bet.

There are a few other value propositions worth looking at too :
2/ NOTTINGHAM FOREST to win or draw at Chelsea at 8.50 / 4.75 for 17% / 29% chance and 145% / 138% value.
3/ SHEFFIELD UNITED to beat Everton at odds of 3.00 with 41% chance for 123% value.
4/ ARSENAL to beat Manchester Utd at odds of 1.80 with 69% chance for 124% value.

Looking at them quickly.

Chelsea have been very average and a 3-0 win over new boys Luton doesn't fix much. Nottingham Forest have lost their first two games narrowly, 1-2 at Arsenal and 2-3 at Man United. Maybe saying Forest will win is too much but you can get around 2.75 for a bet on Forest to get at least a point (X2). Which is great value !

Then a bet on SHEFFIELD UTD (who only lost 1-2 to Man City last weekend) to beat EVERTON (who were thumped 0-4 at Villa) seems a logical conclusion - and you can get 3.00 too! I'm on it.

Finally, I bet with the sheet last week when it said Arsenal would disappoint against Fulham - so of course I'm taking it here when it says the The Gunners will come good. Arsenal have won this fixture on four of the last five occasions, and ManYoo have already lost 0-2 at Spurs this season. An Arsenal win is NOT unlikely - and the maths says better than fair value. So I'm on.

So four bets for me in the EPL this weekend, although only one recommended by the sheet. What will you take ?

1st-3rd Sep 2023- Value Betting in Spain's La Liga

¡Hola de nuevo! We will start this weekend's value hunt with a trip to Spain to examine the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.

Before we look at this week - I must put my hand up and apoligise for last week. I picked 3 picks and none of them won - although Real Betis did go 2-0 ahead before finding a way to lose 2-4 !

And to add insult to injury both of the sheet picks that I did not like and so did not take actually won at prices of 4.00 and 2.63 to show a very healthy PROFIT. Lesson learned.

Here is the sheet output.

The spreadsheet likes two good value bets :
1/ ALAVES to beat Valencia at odds of 3.00 with 47% chance for 141% value rating.
2/ ALMERIA to beat Celta Vigo 2.75 with 44% chance for 121% value rating.

I like both of these bets and the value is clearly there too.

The spreadsheet also likes :
3/ Atl. Madrid and Sevilla to draw at odds of 4.50 with 19% chance for just 86% value rating !!
4/ OSASUNA to beat Barcelona at odds of 5.00 with 22% chance for 110% value rating !!

Now I don't really like either of those right now - the draw is the wrong price - and while the Osasuna win is a better bet I'd want a price of around 7.00 to chase it. Perhaps it will get there before kickoff ?

So I'm just taking the first two bets myself - unless the odds on the last two improve significantly - what are you doing ?

26th-28th Aug 2023 Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Put down your coffee and join me in a stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for "buon valoure" betting.

Here is what the sheet has to say about the second round of football in Serie A :

Just one game is liked by the sheet this weekend :
1/ LECCE to win at Fiorentina at odds of 6.50 with 17% chance for 111% value.

When I look at the game I don't like the match up - Fiorentina are significantly stronger, and finished last season 4-2-0 at home, while Lecce were not great on the road, they did beat Monza 1-0, but lost four of their last six. One ray of hope is the head to head here with Lecce winning three of the last six clashes so perhaps a punt at 6.50 is not such a bad idea? Dodgy at best.

For me Serie A is the hardest of the big leagues to make money out of. The big sides have got bigger. Home advantage has dwindled from 47%-50% chance 10 years ago down to 40%-42% win chance today as favourites now seem to be able to win both home and away.

There one game that I do like this weekend though :
2/ SALERNITANA to beat Udinese at odds of 3.00 with 47% chance for 141% value.

Let's look closer at this one. Udinese ended last season poorly with 5 away losses in a row while Salernitana finished well with a 3-3-0 record at home including wins over Atalanta and .. Udinese paying much the same price (2.88). Salernitana started this season with a 2-2 draw as AS Roma which has to be considered a solid result, while Udinese lost 0-3 at home to Juventus. So why the good price? I'll take it.

And that's it. You could look at Cagliari (7.50) to upset Inter Milan, or Verona (4.33) to beat AS Roma but as I indicated above, times are a-changing in Serie A so I think we'll take it slowly in the opening few rounds.

Buona fortuna, amici

25th-28th Aug 2023- Value Betting in Spain's La Liga

Then it's a quick trip to Spain to run our eye over the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.

Here is the sheet output.

The spreadsheet likes two bets :
1/ CELTA VIGO to shock Real Madrid at odds of 5.50 with 24% chance for 132% value rating.
2/ OSASUNA to win at Valencia at odds of 4.00 with 27% chance for 108% value rating.

I think my spreadsheet is heavily influenced by Real Madrid's awful season last year when they went 11-1-7 on the road, and blind batting against R.M paid good money often for a great yield. Real Madrid always seem to beat Celta Vigo head to head with 10 wins and 2 draws in last 12 games - so I'm not convinced.

Osasuna do have a chance of a win at Valencia, but the price is pretty close to fair value, and my stats are not exact as they don't take into account recent transfers or injuries so I'm not impressed by an estimated 8% edge. Once again - I don't really like this bet too much.

So I will look at the value in these games :
3/ REAL BETIS to win at Bilbao at odds of 4.20 with 39% chance for 164% value rating.
4/ VILLARREAL to beat Barcelona at odds of 3.60 with 50% chance for 180% value rating.
5/ VALLECANO to beat Atl.Madrid at odds of 4.33 with 34% chance for 147% value rating.

Let's start with Real Betis in Bilbao. The visitors are better and won 8 away games last season including here in Bilbao. It's only a 39-40% chance but fair value would be 2.50 or thereabouts, so to get 4.20 (and prices still rising) is value - so this is one away win that I will take.

Villarreal to win at home to Barcelona? I like everything about this bet - except the head to head record. Villarreal have an inferiority complex about Barca and have gone 0-1-5 here in the last six season against them - and 1-0-5 in the Nou Camp too. Still these two sides are rated similarly when Villarreal are at home so have a 50% win chance and a price of 3.60 on the home win is the value play.

Finally, do you like Vallecano to beat Atleti Madrid? I do. Especially at prices above 4.00. Again the head to head is awful with A.M 10-2-0 in the twelve clashes in the last six seasons. But recent form as Vallecano wining four of their last six home games, and A.Madrid winning just one of six on the road. the price is too good to ignore.

So there we are - the sheet has two options which I'm ignoring - and instead I'm going for three outsider bets - where we need just one to win to make a profit.

Which bets will you go for? Good luck with your punts.

25th - 27th Aug 2023 - Value bets for the Bundesliga

Onto Germany's Bundesliga which is rapidly becoming my favourite league to watch, and bet on, and Week #2 has a couple of good options to consider.

Here is how the sheet sees Week #2.

The sheet has highlighted bets in two games, and there one more that interests me too.
1/ BOCHUM to beat Dortmund at odds of 7.00 @ 29% win chanch for 203% value
2/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat Leverkusen at odds of 3.75 @ 37% win chance for 139% value

Let's take a look at those in order ...

Yes Dortmund are a good side (they were better last season and still lost 6 road games) and I have Dortmund half a goal better, but I just think that the price on Bochum has been massively affected by their 0-5 thrashing at Stuttgart last weekend. A price of 7.00 on a home win in the Bundesliga is usually too much. Here it's twice of our estimated fair value - we have to bet on it.

Borussia Monchengladbach are my favourite tongue twisting team - especially when they play at home where they have vocal backing of their fans. Last season B.Monch were 10-3-4 at home and just 1-7-9 on the road !! The rule is simple - back Monchengladbach at home when they offer good value.

And then there is this game :
3/ MAINZ to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at odds of 2.55 @ 50% win chance for 128% value

This is a typical Bundesliga mid-team clash, Mainz are better at home, Frankfurt struggle a bit on the road, and based on an analysis of 334 previously similarly rated GBL games the results are a almost perfect 50%-25%-25% split in favour of the home side. We've being offered significantly more than 2.00 - so we take it.

Ok - There's the Germany round up - three good bets I think.

25th-27th Aug 2023 - Value Betting in EPL

Welcome to week #3 of the 2023/24 season in the English Premier League as we once again look for value bets.

We have ten games to choose from this weekend and the sheet has picked four games with good betting value and maybe one more more potential bet that I'll discuss - but will we take them?

Anyway here is the spreadsheet online output for the EPL in week #3

The sheet recommends :
1/ BOURNEMOUTH to beat Tottenham at odds of 3.75 @ 34% chance is 128% value.
2/ Arsenal v Fulham DRAW at odds of 7.00 @ 28% chance is 196% value.
3/ BURNLEY to beat Aston Villa at odds of 3.60 @ 36% chance is 130% value
4/ SHEFF. UTD to beat Man City at odds of 18.00 @ 9% chance is 162% value

Looking at those four recommendations in order ...

Bournemouth are underdogs to beat Tottenham as Spurs have looked OK and won well last week against Man United, but on the road they've struggled (last season Spurs went 6-5-8 - EIGHT lossses) and the price being offered on the home win is too high.

I hate it when my sheet goes against the Arsenal, but it's often right. here we are getting 7.00 for the draw and 13.00 for a Fulham win - both are very high prices for a competitive games. When you consider that Arsenal are 3-3-0 in their last 6 home games against Fulham (3 draws!!) the 7.00 looks attractive.

Burnley to beat Aston Villa plays out much like the first pick. Villa are the better side - about 6/10ths of a goal better - but a home win would not be a major shock - it happened in this fixture two seasons again - and Villa's 1-5 loss at Newcastle shows some issues on the road. High price - I'll take it.

Finally, Sheffield United to shock Man City is a dubious bet. It's only 9% likely but that price of 18.00 stands out like a beacon. ManCity went 65-14-17 on the road in the last five seasons - impressive but not unbeatable. In that time they've lost twice at similar odds - so it can happen it's just very unlikely.

ONe other game that has appealing odds but is not a sheet tip is :

Luton Town to get something at Chelsea with the draw at 6.50 (169%) and the away win at 12.00 (261%) but after LUton lost 1-4 away at Brighton on opening day I just wonder if the sheet still doesn't have an accurate measure of Luton's strength. Chelsea are likely to bounce back with a narrow win here - so it's probably best left alone.

There we are - four sheet recommended bets plus one other possible - personally I'm going to take the first THREE bets and try to get some profits on the board. I will NOT bet on the extreme outsider options of Sheffield United and Luton to cause major shocks. These will be more likely later in the season when the big sides also have European distractions.

So what will you take?

19th-21st Aug 2023 Italian Serie A Spreadsheet Value Bets

Ciao ragazzi! It's time to look at value bets for the final league for the weekend - as the Italian Serie A finally gets underway for 2023/24.

Here is what the sheet has to say about the opening weekend in Serie A :

1. EMPOLI to beat Verona at odds of 2.39 with 46% chance for 109% value.
2. UDINESE to beat Juventus at odds of 4.33 with 36% chance for value of 150%
3. Torino and Cagliari to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 33% chance for 119% value.

While I run my eyes over those stats and like the look of :
4. LAZIO to win at Lecce at odds of 2.10 with 68% chance for 143% value


Let's discuss shall we ?

Let's start at the top, Empoli are rated half a goal better than Verona, and are considered 46% likely to win based on 431 previous games - so this sort of matchup in strength happens a lot and I have high confidence in the percentage estimate. So around 2.15 would be fair for the home side and we can get around 2.38 to 2.40 if your quick. Take it.

Then there is the upset pick of UDINESE to beat Juventus but really what else can you do here. Juve are slightly stronger rated at 1048 to Udinese's 1031, so Juve are more likely to win at 38% to Udinese's 36%, but the prices for the two sides are miles apart with the home side getting 4.33 compared to Juve's miserly 1.70. Udinese do beat Juve from time to time - they last won in 2020 and were paying 5.25 that day too. It is the value play.

Picking a draw between Torino and Cagliari is not a shock - these two sides are decidedly average, and there are plenty of draws in Seriue A between average sides as somehow it's considered honourable. We have data from 470 previous games in the last 25 season in Serie A with similarly marched sides and 33% of those games finished all square. Getting paid 3.60 instead of 3.00 is getting a 20% edge. Take it.

Finally, I have LAZIO at a good price to win away from home. What worries me here is that Lazio are pretty obvious favourites based on history and club size, and it's pre4tty clear that they're a goal better than Lecce. I expected prices around 1.50 - not 2.10 - but those good prices ar still there - so I'll take it.

Ok - so that's it - four picks for Serie A - and value picks for all four main leagues. If you would like to see me do this EVERY weekend - then how about leaving me a comment to prove that someone is actually reading this stuff eh?

18th-21st Aug 2023 Spanish La Liga Spreadsheet Value Bets

Now we are up to Spain as La Liga enters it's second week, and it's a pretty straight forward betting style this week as home wins are favoured in all the bets.

The Sheet likes three home win bets :

1. ALMERIA to shock Real Madrid at odds of 8.50 with 23% chance for 184% value rating.
2. ALAVES to beat Sevilla at odds of 3.30 with 34% chance for 112% value rating.
3. GRANADA to beat Vallecano at odds of 2.70 with 42% chance for 113% value rating.

And I also like these games too :
4. MALLORCA to beat Villarreal at odds of 2.90 with 44% chance for 128% value rating.
5. OSASUNA to beat Bilbao at odds of 2.90 with 42% chance for 125% value rating.
6. REAL BETIS to beat Atl. Madrid at odds of 3.80 with 39% chance for 144% value rating.

Now let's go through a bit of analysis on these - but it's safe to say that home wins is where it's at this weekend (hopefully).

Almeria's pick as a shock winner stands out, they're only considered a 23% chance to do it, but if you think that is too high thenconsider that mighty Real Madrid has a 11-1-7 road record last season which is a 36% loss record. Once you've absorbed that you migt agree that 23% is fair chance (the sheet looked at 73 previously similiar games to calculate it) and so a price of 4.50 would be fair and 8.50 is great value!

Alaves also have a reasonable chance against Sevilla, and remember that Sevilla have just played against Man City in Athens in midweek, which might add to tired legs for the visitors late on. Worth a punt to me.

Granada to win at home looks more straight forward, both sides are poor, but equally poor and the sheet has just 4 ranking points between them (967 to 963) which is only a fraction of a goal, and that often results in a 1-0 home win. The 2.70 price is more than fair - so I will take it.

We also have Mallorca as better than Villarreal by about 2/10ths of a goal, and home advantage could force a narrow win. I was expecting a 2.10-ish price so 2.90 was snapped up while it's there.

Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao are well matched with little to choose between them. My sheet has found 365 similar ranked games in LA liga in the last 25 years and found that the home side won 43% of them. Then consider that Osasuna have won 5 of their last 6 home games last season and you see that a price of 2.90 is too attractive to pass up.

Finally, I have Real Betis as underdogs against Atletico Madrid, but not by so much. Real Betis last 6 home games saw them go 2-2-2. Atl. Madrid's last six away games saw 2-2-2 also. Head to head here goes 1-2-3 in slight favour of the visitors but still it's an even game. The biggest odds are 3.80 on the home win, compared to 2.00 for the visitors. Honestly .. where do you think the value lies? Yup. Home win.

OK Senor - that's the lot for La Liga this week. Good luck with your bets.

Value Betting in Germany Week #1 - Bundesliga Spreadsheet bets.

Onto Germany then where we have opening weekend, with Bayern Munich starting the season a little slowly - losing 0-3 to RB Leipzig in the German Super Cup last Saturday.

Here is how the sheet sees opening weekend.

The sheet has highlighted bets in four games, and there are another couple that interest me too.

1. FREIBURG to win at Hoffenheim at odds of 3.00 @ 38% win chanch for value of 114%
2. Dortmund and Cologne to DRAW at odds of 5.25 @ 24% win chance of value of 126%
3. UNION BERLIN to beat Mainz at odds of 2.00 @ 70% win chance for 140% value
4. Ein. Frankfurt and Darmstadt to DRAW at odds of 5.25 @ 24% win chance for value of 126%

let's take a look at those in order ...

Freiburg were the surprise team least season finishing just outside te top four. They haven't lost anyone of note and should be competitive again this season. Hoffenheim are good at home - normally, but they've lost 3 of their last four games against Freiburg here -and drew the other ... so trends favour Freiburg alright.

Dortmund are one of my favourite German sides, and the "Buzzy bees" (I know it's NOT their nickname but ..) suffered heartbreak last season when that finally had the Bundesliga title within thier grasp only to lose it with ahome draw on the final day. Cologne are Koln. Midtable last season, they've strengthened a bit and could easily earn a draw - I have it as a 24% chance but it's only based on 25 previously similar games so that estimate could be off.

Union Berlin are the good time story for anyone who likes "the little club" that over achieves. At home UB went 11-6-0 from 17 home games, and they've beaten Mainz on each of the last 3 occasions that they've met here. Mainz are average - 9th last season, and look the same this season. The bookies don't seem tot think "little" Union can do it again. I'll take that bet.

The Eintracht Frankfurt v Darmstadt DRAW pick is the dodgiest choice. Eintracht looked good last season, have started this season with a good cup win (7-0 over Lokomotiv Leipzig) and have signed some good players too. But ... FRankfurt did draw four of their last six home games here last season, and the estimate of 24% draw chance is based on a solid 113 previous games data. The price is good.

Ok - then onto two other games that appeal to me.

5. AUGSBURG to beat Monchengladbach at odds of 2.70 @ 43% win chance for value of 116%
6. Bremen and Bayern Munich to draw art odds of 7.00 @ 27% win chance for value of 186% !!

You know that I could not leave the highest value bet alone. A draw here is paying almost twice what it should be according to my stats. There are plenty of reasons not to take the bet - including the fact that Bayern Munich always win here ... 16 games in a row !! But I can't resist such a good price .. you might be stronger (more sensible) than me.

The AUGSBURG pick is more about betting against Borrusia Monchengladbach on the road. BM are a famous old club, but they are far more powerful at home in front of their fans. On the road they tend to wilt too often, and went 0-3-3 to finsh last season. Throw in the fact that Augsburg have won this fixture three times in a row - and you know I'm taking that value bet.

So there is six games for you, and if we get two or more winners then we make a profit. Nice!

Value Betting in Week #2 - EPL Spreadsheet bets.

Hello and welcome to week #2of the 2023/24 season as we try to navigate the odds and find profitable betting in the English Premier League.

We have nine games to choose from this weekend as Luton v Brighton has been postponed as Lutons' stadium rebuild has not quite completed yet. We didn't they just reverse the fixture so that both teams could play? No idea - seems an obvious solution to me.

Anyway here is the spreadsheet online output for the EPL in week #2

The spreadsheet recommends three value bets, but also ignores what looks like four other good value punts, so we will investigate to output to determine why and whether we should bet on them too.

The sheet recommends :
1/ Liverpool v Bournemouth DRAW at odds of 7.00 @ 19% chance is 133% value.
2/ EVERTON to win away at Aston Villa at odds of 5.25 @ 21% chance is 110% value.
3/ CRYSTAL PALACE to beat Arsenal at odds of 6.00 @ 20% chance is 120% value

Looking at those three recommendations in order ...

Liverpool are clear favourites, and rated strongly by my sheet as a 74% win chance ... but ... Liverpool have drawn 2 or their last six home games, and all four of the wins have been by a single goal margin. That's hardly the form of a team that you want to back at a win price of just 1.20 and the draw at 7.00 DOES seem a good bet.

Everton lost a home last week so why does the sheet want to back them here? Well firstly, Aston Villa got thumped 1-5 at Newcastle so they're wobbling early on. And secondly, Everton finished last season quite well on the road with just one loss in six games. If Everton can score first then the upset is on. However, it's only rated a 21% chance, and Aston Villa won six home games on the trot at the end of last season so it's a roughy.

I hate my sheet sometimes. But when it picks an Arsenal upset on the road it's right often enough to make a profit. It's picked it seven times in the last two years, got it right twice and received 13.10 return on 7 units bet. So even as a Gooner I'll probably take it - and be happy if this bet loses.

But there are four other bets that look great value too - but not indicated so lets look at them too.

1/ MAN CITY to beat NEWCASTLE at 1.67 odds @ 80% win chance - 132% value !!
Man City seem to win everything at home - they've won their last six home games, and their last six homes against Newcastle. Newcastle are good but still no match. I think it's a good bet.

2/ WOLVES to beat Brighton at odds of 3.80 @ 36% win chance at 137% value.
The price on Wolves is very, very good and still rising. Wolves won 4 of last 6 at home, Brighton 2-0-4 last six on the road, H2H last 5 seasons have just one Wolves win. Brighton beat Luton last week - but Wolves are tougher, especially at home. I do actually have Brighton as 42% win favourites here - but the value on this game is definately with Wolves. Take it.

Also TOTTENHAM to beat Manchester United at odds of 2.88 @ 49% win chance - 141% value ?!
The value is there - if you beleive in the Spurs rating after Harry Kane's departure. I don't. Tottenham 3-1-2 last six at home, ManUtd 2-1-3 last six away, H2H here at The Lane is 1-2-3 in favour of United. Both sides were a bit average on matchday one. IF you had this game as 33% Spurs win then it's probably a fair bet - not a value one. I will NOT take it.

Finally, BRENTFORD to win at Fulham at odds of 2.60 @ win chance of 46% for 120% value.
Fulham are Ok, but home form is only average at 2-1-3 in last 6 games (two of those losses were to Man City and Arsenal though), while Brentford are 2-1-3 on the last 6 road games. I have Brentford about 1/3 of a goal better but is that enough to force the issue. This bet could be value - I would not blame you if you took it. But with five bets already marked in the EPL I will leave it alone.

So there it is - week #2 calculated and evaluated. Well make a profit with two wins, of even 1 win if it's Crystal Palace, or Bournemouth get a draw.

Good luck.

Reviewing week #1's Value Bets

Before posting the bets for Week 2, let's review what happened on the opening weekend and see how we went.

In England we took four bets and had one success - as FULHAM did win 1-0 at Everton. However, Brentford could not beat Tottenham (drew 2-2) while Aston Villa were thumped 1-5 at Newcastle, and Luton conceded alte on to lose 1-4 at Brighton. So just one win from four and 3.30 returned for a small loss.

In Spain it was a similar story. We did get CADIZ to beat Alaves at around 2.20, but while Getafe @ 7.50 gave it a good go to beat Barcelona they could only draw 0-0. We had money on Villarreal v Real Betis finishing level only to be undone by a 90+7th minute winner and LAs Palmas draw with Mallorca when we had them to win. Do one win from four, and despite some good chances only a 2.20 return from four units.

Sometimes that's the way it goes when backing underdogs or value results, we don't expect every bet to be a winner, but we are aiming for profits each week - so we will redouble our efforts this week.

Good luck with your punts.

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Season Begins in La Liga - Value Bets

Spain is also starting top flight football this weekend with La Liga kicking off and there "appear to be some good value option for us o the first weekend - will they pan out and turn into cash? There is only one way to find out.

You can see the raw betting spreadsheet output online at GoonersGuide as usual but let me walk you through what I see when I look at those numbers.

The sheet likes two games as good options, the first one I understand as it picks Getafe at home to Barcelona. Getafe are not a bad side at home they win more than they lose, and we have a home win at 26% chance suggesting a 1 in 4 win profile so fair odds would be 4.00 (decimal), 3/1 (UK factional), +300 (US lines).

Consider the we can now get prices of 5.75 at the time of the sheet and they've grown to 6.50 now - that's over 150% value - I can't ignore it - even though the bet has a 74% chance of losing. Over 150% value. I'm on it

The second one mystifies me though as the sheet likes promoted Granada to draw at Atletico Madrid, and like the EPL sheet before I think thart my LALiga sheet is over-rating those chances. I'm going to "red flag" this sheet pick and ignore it - we will see on Monday if I was right.

But I won't leave you "hanging" with no value betting action - as looking through the output I see a few La Liga bets that look worth playing to me.

1/ GETAFE to beat Barcelona at odds of 6.50 @ 26% chance which is 169% value.
2/ CADIZ to beat Alaves at odds of 2.10 @ 63% chance which is 132% value.
3/ LAS PALMAS to beat Mallorca at odds of 2.10 @ 55% chance which is 135% value
4/ Villarreal v Real Betis DRAW at odds of 3.80 @ 33% chance which is 125% value.

Four bets that have appealing prices - we need to collect on two of them to make a profit.

If you have any comments you can always get in touch with me on the GoonersGuide Blog .

Opening Weekend Value betting in English Premier League.

Summer seems to have taken twice as long this year - but finally the start of the English Premier league is here - and we have our first set of 10 games to evalute.

The published sheet output available online at https://www.goonersguide.com/numbers_spreadsheet.htm looks something like this :

Which suggests two value bets in the EPL this weekend - namely Burnley to win and Brighton v Luton to draw - but both recommendations have flaws that need to be considered.

Firstly, both recommendations suggest that promoted teams Burnley and Luton are going to do better than expected, and that could be a foible of the spreadsheet as it only processes Premier League results have much recent data on either side - Burnley have been out for a season and Luton for over 20 seasons and are starting with default data.

And secondly, value betting on spreadsheet recomended draws in the EPL did not do well last season going 2/14 and recording a loss. So we will avoid both recommendations in the first week and take a look at other value options.

By looking at the value percentages there ARE 4 bets that I think are worth trying in the first weekend.

1/ BRENTFORD to beat Tottenham at odds of 2.88 @ 45% chance for 131% Value.
2/ ASTON VILLA to win at Newcastle at odds of 5.00 @ 25% chance for 125% value
3/ FULHAM to win at Everton at odds of 3.30 @ 47% chance for 155% value.

I'm also tempted to take LUTON + 1/2 goal start on handicap to win or draw at odds of 3.30 @ 43% chance giving 141% value.

Do you agree? Do you disagree? Let me know.