The English Premier League thinks EVERTON(?!) are financially dodgy?! And WTF is going on VAR?

Club football takes a break - but I've got a couple of things on my mind after reading this morning that EVERTON are apparently the money cheats of the EPL not .. MAN CITY and CHELSEA.

EVERTON ARE EPL's FINANCIAL CHEATS - REALLY?
Everton Football Club have received an immediate 10-point deduction after being found to have breached the top flight's financial rules.

Let that sink in ... EVERTON - who have barely escaped relagation in the last two seasons - are going to be made the scapegoat and poster boy for the Engish Premier League financial rules - and have been docked 10 points.

Everton say they have not been given clarity on how the commission reached the figure of 10 points and sources believe a sporting sanction for a technical breach on the accountancy of building their new stadium is not appropriate.

English top-flight clubs are permitted to lose £105m over three years, and an independent commission found Everton's losses to 2021-22 amounted to £124.5m.

Given Covid-19's impact on 1.5 of those seasons - given the fact that Everton dropped a Russian sponsorship due to Ukraine war - and given the fact that they're barely holding on - how exactly dos Everton's £19.5m really hurt anyone?

Meanwhile MANCHESTER CITY who are facing 115 charges, and who have clearly spent outside their ability to earn for the last 10 seasons, completely imbalancing the playing field and buying success with oil money .. carry on unaffected. Their case rumbles on and on - probably waiting for the statute of limitations to expire.

The Premier League powers that be seem to love a bit of oil money - so I guess it gets spread around ... and everyones snout is in the money bag taking their cut ??

When it come to financial doping or financial imbalance it won't come as a shock that I reckon CHELSEA and MANCHESTER CITY are at fault - and while EVERTON might have overspent it's hardly a major issue.

What is a major issue is that all of these "due process" calls seem to be favouring the new dirty money clubs - and do not seem to be providing a level playing field for all clubs.

AND THIS IS STILL A FOUL !! GET VAR OUT !!
But given that the Premier League are still backing their VAR who somehow decided that THIS wasn't a foul in the final phase of oil-rich Newcastle's goal against Arsenal ... I hardly expected any better from them.

Look I'm a simple guy. I pretty much evaluate what I see and call bullsh!t when it's bullsh!t and the "goal" above was scored due to a clear foul - and if the referee didn't see it then it's VARs job to clear it up- They did NOT do that.

Just get VAR out of the game if they can't even rule on this clearly. I'm OK if the referee misses a foul and a goal. I played footy for 45 years since the age of five - and I get that the referee can't be everywhere.

But VAR can be and I thought that the pay-off for putting up with 1-2 minute waits was getting things right. If VAR can't do that then let's get back to instant decisions, referee calls only, and fans reacting when goal are scored - not waiting around for 120 seconds and some law-waiving (or corrupt) twerp behind a video monitor to get it wrong.

How much money is being paid to VAR and "INDEPENDANT" COMMISIONS to get these decisions so wrong? Inquiring minds want to know. What's your price?

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Spreadsheet Value - Midweek UEFA comps.

Here are the midweek spreadsheet stats.

Football Value Betting - Europe - 4th to 6th November

No comments or discussion in the last post - so another short post.

Here is the weekend selection.

Eight home wins are selected as good value and five draws as well.

Can you work out how to make a profit this weekend?

RECOMMENDED BOOKMAKER SITES :

UK : Bet365 | BetFred

USA : Bovada | BetOnline | Bookmaker

CANADA : Bet365 | BetOnline | Bodog Sports

GLOBAL : Bet365 | SportBet

AUS / NZ : Bet365.COM.AU

ASIA : Bet365 |

CRYPTO : Bovada | Bodog | BetOnline | SportBet

Value Bets 15th to 17th Oct - International football.

THe Euro20024 qualifying chunders on - an unwanted and unwelcome break to European club football - but I've still got a stats spteadsheet with potential bettig value for you - and here is it.

As you can see in the output of the next 3 days and 22 games there is only a handful of betting opportunities - and all of them are based on calulations involving under 100 games (because international teams don't play often) so the numbers could easily be skewed and/or just plain wrong. This means don't be betting on these games with anything more than small bets - for interest only.

Two draws (which are always risky and no more than 40% likely at best), a home win where Belgium are avery surprising price, and a bet against Luxembourg that might be flawed because the Lux's have been over-achieving in this campaign and have improved from awful to plain ordinary.

Good luck - and I'll see you on Thursday when we get back to club football

Value Bets 12th to 14 Oct - International Football

Here is the spreadsheet for midweek action in the Euro2024 Qualification matches.

The sheet recommends 6 matches to bet on and all the picks look like good value choices to me. Some are a bit risky - sure - but the odds are good and some odds are even growing as people lump on the favourites instead.

Remember it's not an exact science with all these games - there isn't enough data in some matches (note the OBS column)- for example the Netherlands v France game only has 8 previous games in Europe where the teams have been ranked similarly - but 2.80+ on a home win for the Dutch? Yes please. I just got 3.04 !!

You also have to work out how to play angles in games like Austria v Belgium where two options are suggested. Personally? I'm taking Belgium AH+0 to get draw insurance - but each bettor will have their own risk profile and betting styles.

Recommended bookmakers to use :

USA and CANADA players can use BETONLINE or BOOKMAKER or BOVADA
While UK / EURO / CAN / AUS / NZ can play at BET365

Good luck !

Rugby World Cup : Ireland v New Zealand - France v South Africa - Southern Hemisphere final looms?

So the Rugby World group games are done - well the ones that matter anyway and we have our Quarter-Finals line-ups.

Let's be clear about this - there are just two quarter-finals that matter - France v South Africa, and Ireland v New Zealand - as the top four sides in the World face-off as EVERYONE knew they would over 2 years ago when the draw for this rugby world cup was completed.

France and Ireland both won their group matches against their Southern Hemisphere rivals (New Zealand and South Africa respectively), but you cannot help to get the feeling that South Africa were very comfortable in slipping to a narrow defeat against Ireland once they knew that a loss would ensure that the Boks would avoid meeting the All Blacks in the Quarter-Finals.

The two match-ups now favour the Southern Hemisphere sides for me, And I will not be surprised if both South Africa and New Zealand progress from the quarters, romp past weak semi-final opposition and meet in the final.

One the other side we have Wales likely to face Argentina, while England will probably meet and beat Fiji. But these games are fairly irrelevant because the finalists will almost certainly come from the top four quarter-finalists.

Here are my estimates of various chances in the QFs :
- Wales vs Argentina (60/40)
- Ireland vs New Zealand (35/65)
- England vs Fiji (80/20)
- France vs South Africa (35/65)

Ireland run the very real risk of being run off their feet against New Zealand who will be very focused after several defeats in the last two years, while the Springboks will dominate posession, and territory and will likely grind the French into submission.

If they progress a expected then I give both South Africa and New Zealand an 80%+ chance in their semi-finals. And it's only as low as 80% because of the current vagaries in rules and refereeing meaning that an early red card cannot be ruled out - and that would turn any match expectation on it's head.

And if THAT happens a 50/50% chance against each other in the final ...

Value Bets for 8th October.

The value betting blogs will get shorter and shorter - unless I see comments in the posts.

Here is Sunday's selection.

Monza v Salernitana DRAW at 3.90
Lazio v Atalanta DRAW at 3.40
Leverkusen v Cologne DRAW at 5.50
Bayern Munich v Freiburg DRAW @ 8.50
Atl. Madrid v Real Sociedad DRAW @ 3.50
ALAVES to beat Real Betis @ 2.80
GETAFE to win at CELTA VIGO @ 4.00
GRANADA to beat Barcelona @ 7.50

Two Sports Betting Reviews for Canada - bet365 Ontario and Bodog.eu

What do I do during the week ? I take a regular review of the betting landscape and check out some of the best betting options out there for different countries.

This week it's Canada, and after mucking around I decided it was just time to Get out on the blog and git'r done - so these are the two sites that made the top two - with a preference depending on where you live.

bet365 Ontario Canada
bet365 is one of the top online sports betting sites and the UK-based sportsbook has entered the Ontario market in Canada as a provincially regulated Ontario sports betting sites.

If you're betting on North American sports, you won't be disappointed with bet365. From the NFL and NHL to the NBA and MLB, there's never a lack of action on the sportsbook. bet365 routinely offers some of the best lines in the industry.

Check my bet365 Ontario review post on the main site.

Bodog.eu for Canada
The Bodog.eu Sports betting website was launched in 1994 by the Canadian Calvin Ayre and at it's peak in 2004, Bodog was the biggest gambling brand in Canada and a powerhouse operator internationally. Bodog is still a prime destination for Canadian punters.

Here is what I found in my recent check of Bodog.eu for sports betting.

Value Bets - 3rd /4th October in Europe

Good evening ladies and gents - here is a bonus round of betting action in the UEFA Champions League.

This system is a little less reliable - simply because teams play less games and there is less data to crunch which you can see in the lower number of Observations (data points) in the spreadsheet output. So with just a handful of preliminaries complete, and just one round of group games lets keep stakes for this midweek round small. Maybe 1/5th of a normal bet - so the entire group is worth just 1 normal stake - just to test the waters.

Here is the output for all 16 group games this week.

Five bets are recommended, and I personally like four of them while I wondered about Benfica I have to admit that Benfica are a chance to win as they did beat Juventus in Italy last season - so perhaps the sheet is smarter than me? ;-)

If you’re not sure that you trust this system yet then just take each bet for $1 online. Or whatever minimum your bookie offers. We need a couple of wins to break even and/or make a profit average value suggests that we should make around 30% profit overall ... if my value ratings are good.

USA and CANADA players can use BETONLINE or BOOKMAKER or BOVADA
While UK / EURO / CAN / AUS / NZ can play at BET365

Good luck with your plays whichever ones you take ... and I will be back on Thursday with the weekend picks.

Selling Orcs, Ogres and Dragons at Ebay - check it out.

In a post that will catch some of you off-guard, I'm selling off a large portion of my collectables rather than pack them up again and shift then when I move house - and i have posted them all at Ebay.

I have Orcs, lots of Orcs, Orcs with Bows, Orcs with Axes, Orcs with War Machines, as well as a small Band of Ogres, and two Groups of Dragons.

You can find all the individual listings here. Click the red links to visit the listing.

FOR SALE - 16 x Orc Arrer Boyz - Painted Citadel Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer
You are looking at 16 hand painted Citadel metal miniatures from the early 90's. These Orc archers aka "the Arrer Boyz" were designed by Kev Adams and released in 1991 for use in the Warhammer Fantasy Battle table top game.

FOR SALE - 18 x Orc Axes - Painted Citadel / Marauder Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer
You are looking at 18 hand painted Marauder metal miniatures from the early 90's. These Orc Warriors aka "the Boyz" were designed by Kev Adams and released in 1991 for use in the Warhammer Fantasy Battle table top game.

FOR SALE - 12 x Black Orcs (RR18)- Painted Citadel Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer
Here is a classic 12 figure unit of Black Orcs, hand-painted and battle-tested Citadel Miniatures from the mid 1980's for the Warhammer fantasy battle table top game. Known as RR18 Eeza Ugezod's Mother Crushers Black Orcs.

FOR SALE - 17 x Ruglud's Armoured Orcs (RRD5) - Raw Citadel Metal Figures for Warhammer
These Orc boyz aka "Ruglud's Armoured Orcs" were designed by Kev Adams and released as a Regiment of Reknown in 1988 for use in the Warhammer Fantasy Battle table top game. These are in excellent condition and are now Out of Production and bring any Orc army a good fighting unit.

FOR SALE - Orc Bolt Thrower - Hand Painted Warhammer Citadel Metal Miniature Figures
Up for grabs is an Orc war machine and crew which are second hand Citadel Miniatures from 1988-1991 for the Warhammer fantasy battle table top game. These war machines gave the greenskins some ranged weapons to hit the massed human or stunty ranks.

FOR SALE - Orc Rock Chukka - Hand Painted Citadel Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer
Another Orc war machine and crew which are second hand Citadel Miniatures from 1988-1991 for the Warhammer fantasy battle table top game. These war machines gave the greenskins some ranged weapons to hit the massed human or stunty ranks.

FOR SALE - 5 Ogres (RR8) - Hand Painted Citadel Warhammer Metal Miniature Figures
You are looking at 5 hand painted Citadel miniatures known as Golfag's Other Regiment of Mercenary Ogres (RR12) who were released in 1987 for the Games Workshop Warhammer table top game.

Emerging Green Dragon from egg from Windstone Editions US - circa 1984 – Sculptor Melody Pena
Here is a Green Empress Dragon (the best color) emerging out of her egg as sculpted by celebrated artist Melody Pena. This girl is nearly 40 years old, created in 1984 by the crew at Windstone editions.

FOR SALE - 3 Enchantica Dragons - Snappa Plays Ball, Snappa Finds a Collar, Snappa Climbs
We have 3 versions of "Snappa" the young dragon from the Enchantica range for sale.

Value Bets 29th Sept to 2nd Oct

Afternoon - ladies and gents - thanks for coming back for another weekend of value betting.

From now on - the analysis is going to be different. I will show you the output - outline the recommended bets - and then leave it as that. If you want to as questions you can find my GoonersGuide Betting Blog here at and I'm happy to discuss.

Here is the output for all four leagues ...

I said I wouldn’t do match analysis - so I won’t.

But I will discuss the general concepts of value betting again, and this weekends bets in particular. The concept is simple, bet where the payout is better than the chances of winning suggest. It does not matter whether you think the individual bet will win this time, because over the course of the football season you will get rewards.

If you’re not sure that you trust this system yet then just take each bet for $1 online. Or whatever minimum your bookie offers.

USA and CANADA players can use BETONLINE or BOOKMAKER or BOVADA
UK / EURO / CAN / AUS / NZ can play at BET365

Track the results. See what you make of it. I understand it takes time to bet with confidence.

I have made profits in 23 of the last 25 seasons betting like this - and each of the last TEN seasons straight. I’m confident which is why I publish this advisory page. But not every bet will win. In fact only about 25-35% of bets will. And most punters cannot handle that.

Overall we will make money - at least that is always my aim.

For this weekend we have six win bets, and we need three winners for a profit - or for Wolves to pull of a shock.

We also have six draw bets, and here the prices are better so we need two draws or better to make a profit.

If you cannot get these prices at your bookie, if the odds are considerably lower, then do NOT take the bet. if the prices are higher then that’s because everyone else is rushing to back the favourites - thank your lucky stars - and then take the better odds.

Good luck - and mayben I will see you next weekend ?
;-)

Cheers !!!
Paul (The Gooner)

ESP - 26th- 28th Sep 2023 - Value Bets in La Liga

¡Hola de nuevo! Let's look at Spain's midweek La Liga schedule and find some betting action.

Here is the sheet output - for the upcoming mid-week :

The spreadsheet likes two bets in midweek :
1/ MALLORCA to win or draw vs Barcelona at odds of 2.50 with 50% chance for 125% value.
2/ REAL SOCIEDAD to win at Valenica at odds of 2.90 with 43% chance for 125% value.

Let’s take a look at it now.

Barcelona are doing what Barcelona do. Winning games and sitting on top of the table. But on the road they've already had a draw and the other two games were won by a single goal. Betting on Barca to win at 1.55 is silly. Poor value. But opposing them at 2.50 is a good play.

In the second match, the sheet likes Real Sociedad to beat Valencia. It not an obvious pick, but we have R.Sociedad as slightly stronger and a database of previous results that says they're 43% likely. So the price is right. And so we take it.

And that's it. Two bets and again we need one to hit to make an overall profit.

Good Luck.

ISA - 26th to 28th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Let's quickly go through the Serie A matches in midweek looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for 26th-28th September.

We’ve got two bets to consider in midweek :
1/ Empoli and Salernitana to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 33% chance for 106% value.
2/ ROMA to win at Genoa at odds of 2.20 with 42% chance for just 92% value.

The Empoli v Salernitana draw is clear - it's not a sure thing at all at 33% - but with both sides already close to the bottom it will be a case of defence first and a 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 or 1-1 score line looks likely. The draw is a good value bet.

The second bet is to take AS Roma to beat Genoa, which is not at quite fair value, but the spreadsheet is recommending, probably influenced by the fact that AS Roma have won this fixture in each of the last 3 seasons. Take the bet.

And that’s it. Short and sweet. Two bets and we only need one to win to collect a profit.

Buona fortuna, amici

EPL - 23rd-24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in English Premier League

Let's head off to England and take a look at the Premier League for the latest round - and find a wee bit of value. Here is the sheet output for this week.

The spreadsheet has four bets indicated - and we will do a bit of tweaking.
1/ Man City and Nottingham to draw at odds of 8.50 with 18% chance for 153% value rating
2/ BURNLEY to beat Man United at odds of 4.40 with 33% chance and 145% value.
3/ Brighton and Bournemouth to draw at odds of 5.25 with 26% chance for 137% value.
4/ SHEFFIELD UTD to beat Newcastle Utd at odds of 7.50 with 25% chance for 188% value.

So how do the bets stack up? Lets examine the numbers.

Manchester City are winning everything. But they played in the Champions League in midweek and frankly a hic-cup is due. Nottingham Forest have lost at Arsenal and Man Utd by 1 goal each time and won 1-0 at Chelsea. So they're a good underdog candidate. The system actually picked an away win (6%) at 19.00 - but I'd modify to a draw or draw/away to improve the chances of collecting.

Next is BURNLEY to beat Manchester United at 4.40 and the odds are still climbing. Personally I think that ManYoo have been unlucky on the road, and are due a win - and they do seem to win here at Turf Moor with 5 wins in the last six trips. However the stats say of 123 previously similar games (statistically) this result likelihood is dead even at 33% for Home win, 33% for Draw, 33% for away win. Perhaps a bet on home / draw to maximise chances again.

Our 3rd pick is a draw with Bournemouth to hold Brighton. The Seagulls have been on fire with a 4-0-1 record and they look good but a midweek loss in Europe is both tiring and confidence shaking and Bournemouth have managed a draw in 3 of their first 5 EPL fixtures. the 26% chance feels about right - so 4.00 would be fair and 5.25+ is a steal at good value. And THAT is our game.

Finally, would it really be a major shock if travel weary Newcastle (played in Italy in midweek) were beaten by Sheffield United?? It's only a 25% chance - but Newcastle have already lost 2 away games in the EPL this season and the price is too good to ignore.

1/ Man City and Nottingham to draw / away at odds of 5.75 with 24% chance for 138% value rating
2/ BURNLEY to win / draw v Man United at odds of 2.15 with 66% chance and 141% value.
3/ Brighton and Bournemouth to draw at odds of 5.25 with 26% chance for 137% value.
4/ SHEFFIELD UTD to beat Newcastle Utd at odds of 7.50 with 25% chance for 188% value.

So there we have it - four bets - and hopefully a profit.

ESP - 22nd - 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Spain's La Liga

¡Hola de nuevo! Let's look at Spain to examine the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.

Here is the sheet output - for the weekend and upcoming mid-week :

The spreadsheet likes just one bet on the weekend at perceived good value :
1/ ALMERIA to beat Valencia at odds of 2.90 with 43% chance for 125% value rating.

Let’s take a look at it now.

Let's just say that it's a bet that ONLY a spreadsheet could love. Almeria are rock bottom of La Liga with an 0-1-4 record and there is little sign of a home win coming. They might win. But even though the current price is good value I'd want a wee bit more before I take a team at the bottom of the league to get their first win. A bet to avoid.

And that's it. One bet highlighted by the spreadsheet and I've rubbished it. Everything else is well priced by the bookies - which is actually a good sign that the "spreadie" has accurately evaluated this round because the bookies agree with it. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all.

I'll be back on Monday afternoon to look at all the midweek action.

Good Luck.

GBL - 22nd - 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in German Bundesliga

Hallo meine freunde, join me as we look for good Bundesliga bets this weekend.

We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :

We've got have four games to look at - 3 home wins and a very unlikely draw :
1/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat RB Leipzig at odds of 5.00 with 34% chance for 179% value
2/ DORTMUND to beat Wolfsburg at odds of 1.73 with 69% chance for 119% value.
3/ UNION BERLIN to win at Hoffenheim at odds of 2.05 with 57% chance for 117% value.
4/ Leverkusen v Heidenheim to DRAW at odds of 6.50 with 20% chance for 130% value

However, there are a couple of things that mean not all bets are sound.

Two of the home wins are clear enough as both DORTMUND and UNION BERLIN are solid favourites and being priced quite highly. This is probably due to the midweek Champions League games that both sides have had to play, and it's something thatr the sheet does not factor in. Still both bets are sound and should be taken.

The next pick of MONCHENGLADBACH is riskier and with a far higher potential reward. Leipzig are the better side, and even my sheet has Leipzig as favourites to win, but the odds being offered on the home side - who have won this fixture in EACH of the last three seasons - mean that the value and therefore our betting eye must be on the home side.

The final pick is a potential draw between Leverkusen and Heidenheim at a very tasty price of 6.50. It's only a 20% chance - but Heidenheim have already drawn 2-2 at Dortmund this season paying out at a price of 7.00 so there is some logic to the sheets pick. It's up to you whether you take this or not.

One other related note is that there is even more potential value in a draw between Bayern Munich and Bochum which pays 11.00 (!!) but is only 14% likely. In analysis of these unlikely draws the sheet has determined that chasing value below about 17-18% likelihood just does not payout often enough to keep punters happy. So this draw is not recommended. And you are taking your chances with the other one too.

So three home win bets - and I do like them all. Two potential value draws - maybe one is worth chasing? Your call.

ISA - 22nd to 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Grab an coffee let's quickly stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :

Note that this sheet show the weekend and midweek next week - but we will be focusing on the weekend in this briefing.

We’ve got three bets on offer this weekend :
1/ Salernitana and Frosinone to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 34% chance for 109% value.
2/ Lecce and Genoa to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 34% chance for 109% value.
3/ Lazio and Monza to DRAW at odds of 3.80 with 28% chance for 106% value.

The draws are straight forward enough to see, even if the Lazio v Monza one is a bit dodgy, and at these prices if we get one draw then we show a profit.

A note about 3 away win picks shown on the sheet (games with the “-” symbol in V1 column), all are reasonable picks, but all come in at about 97-99% which is NOT quite value. If you can get a better price than the one shown then they’re worth taking.

And that’s it. Three bets to choose from - if you take two of them you only need one to win to collect a profit. I’ll take all three.

Buona fortuna, amici

ESP - 16th-18th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Spain's La Liga

¡Hola de nuevo! We will start this weekend's value hunt with a trip to Spain to examine the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.

Here is the sheet output.

The spreadsheet likes one bet at perceived good value :
1/ MALLORCA to win at Celta Vigo at odds of 4.20 with 27% chance for 109% value rating.

And also one bet even though it’s not good value ?
2/ Sevilla and Las Palmas to draw at 4.00 with 21% chance for 84% value rating ?! WTF?

Let’s take a look at both bets now.

Firstly, MALLORCA winning at Celta Vigo isn’t an outrageous idea. The last six occurrences of this fixture have gone 2 HW, 2 Draws, 2 AW, and Celta Vigo have lost both home games so far in this seasons campaign so they’re ripe for picking. The problem is that Mallorca are not a great road team and have failed to win at Granada or Las Palmas already this season - and both those opponents are probably weaker than Celta Vigo. So it’s a weak bet even if its good value.

The second bet is a draw flagged up by one of the old DV systems. It’s a system with a +10% yield even with these low value punts but it’s 0-2 so far this season. I don’t like it - I suspect that Sevilla will eke out a 1-0 win here. So I won’t take it.

So of the two spreadsheet identified bets - I’m taking neither of them.

But if you must bet on La Liga this weekend - you could try a tenner on these three :
1/ Real Madrid and Real Sociedad to draw at odds of 4.00 with 32% chance for 128% value.
2/ REAL BETIS to win at Barcelona at odds of 8.50 with 17% chance for 144% value.
3/ CADIZ to win at Bilbao at odds of 7.00 with 24% chance for 168% value.

All three bets are on underdogs - and the prices are still going up so you can wait to get even better value. Don’t expect all three bets to win but if one of them comes in then we are in profit and I think that it’s a coin toss that will happen.

Good Luck.

ISA - 16th to 18th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Grab an espresso and join me in a stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :

We've got three bets on offer this weekend :
1/ CAGLIARI to beat Udinese at odds of 2.88 with 42% chance for 121% value.
2/ FIORENTINA to beat Atalanta at odds of 2.40 with 45% chance for 108% value.
3/ EMPOLI to win or draw at AS Roma are odds of 2.75 with 41% chance for 113% value.

Both Cagliari (H 1-0-5) and Udinese (A 0-1-5) have awful home /away form. Udinese are slightly stronger, but with home advantage we favour Cagliari as 42% likely to eke out a win.

Fiorentina at home are always a tough task, and the sheet likes them as 45% chance to win, so the price of 2.40 is worth taking.

Finally, while AS Roma will probably finally get a win this season, getting paid nearly 3.00 betting against a team that is 0-1-2 to not win is a pretty good bet to consider.

And that's it. Three bets to choose from - if you take two of them you only need one to win to collect a profit. I'll take all three.

Buona fortuna, amici

EPL - 16th-18th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in English Premier League

Then we head off to England and take a look at the Premier League for round five - and find a wee bit of value.

Here is the sheet output for this week.

The spreadsheet has four bets indicated - including opposing my team Arsenal again !! :
1/ Tottenham and Sheffield United to draw at odds of 5.75 with 22% chance for 127% value rating
2/ BRENTFORD to win at Newcastle at odds of 6.50 with 26% chance and 169% value.
3/ BOURNEMOUTH to beat Chelsea at odds of 4.75 with 36% chance for 171% value.
4/ EVERTON to beat Arsenal at odds of 6.00 with 18% chance for 108% value.

So do the bets stack up? Lets take a look

Tottenham have started life very well under their new manager, and should be favoured to win, but Sheffield United are not too far off the pace with 3 1-goal losses and a 2-2 draw against Everton last time out. A home win is almost 70% likely but the price is awful. You can get 6.00 now on the draw - even better than my sheet numbers. I'll be taking it.

Next up is BRENTFORD to shock at Newcastle. I expected more from the Geordies who have lost 3 of their first 4 games, and Brentford are unbeaten in their first 4 games - so I can see this happening. I'll take the bet but may add in a little bet on the draw as well for some insurance.

BOURNEMOUTH beating Chelsea seems reasonable to me, and at odds approaching 5.00 it's one that has to be taken. Clearly Chelsea have the more expensive squad, and are probably half a goal better, but home advantage counts and my stats suggest that in 115 previously similar games the home team won almost as often as the away side (36% to 39%). So I'll take the team offering a good payout.

Finally, the bet I hate - but have to admit I see why it's recommended is EVERTON to beat Arsenal. Everton are not good but they've won this fixture on 4 of the last five occasions- either 2-1 or 1-0. Arsenal are not playing that well but still have a 60% chance of winning at Goodison Park. But the value is definitely with Everton at 6.00

OK. That's four bets in the EPL for the weekend. One winner and we are in profit.

GBL - 15th-17th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in German Bundesliga

Hallo meine freunde, join me as we look for good Bundesliga bets this weekend.

We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :

We've got have five games to look at - and a few points to make :
1/ Bayern Munich v Leverkusen to DRAW at odds of 5.00 with 33% chance for 165% value.
2/ FREIBURG to beat Dortmund at odds of 3.30 with 36% chance for 119% value.
3/ UNION BERLIN to win at Wolfsburg at odds of 3.20 with 36% chance for 115% value.
4/ Bochum v Eintracht Frankfurt to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 30% chance for 108% value.
5/ DARMSTADT to beat Mochengladbach at odds of 3.00 with 46% chance for 138% value.

However, there are quite a few circumstances to consider here and not all bets are sound.

Let's start with the obvious. The stats for the first pick Bayern Munich v Leverkusen are based on just 3 previously similar games (3 obs). That's no basis for a statistical percentage so the real draw percentage could be anywhere from 20% to 40% and we cannot trust the calculation. That being said both sides have started with three wins and Leverkusen do look a good side this year. I do actually like the draw bet here but you can't beleive any percentage number based on just 3 games matched.

The next pick of FREIBURG to win has a lot more data (95 obs) and again I do like this pick. Freiburg started with twq narrow wins before being thumped at Stuttgart last time so they're under-rated a bit - and Dortmund look to be less of a unit than they hae been in recent years. I'll take this.

Bet #3 is UNION BERLIN to win at Wolfsburg. I perfer taking Union to win at home, but thy lost 0-3 last time out and perhaps they will bounce back here? Based on 203 similar games we have the results as 34-30-36% likely so the bigger price on the away side appeals.

Our fourth bet is a DRAW pick in the Bochum v Eintracht game. It's possible, and it's interesting that the sheet prefers this to the home win which is actually better value. Eintracht are favourites despite not winning on the road in their last six away games - and Bochum have won this fixture in each of the last two seasons. I think I actually prefer the home win.

Finally, we have DARMSTADT as good value to beat Monchengladbach. Both sides are a bit awful this season and already in relegation trouble. My sheet has found 69 previous Bundesliga games that were simialr statistically, and of those th home side won 46% - almost half! A price of 3.00 for a home win looks good.

So five bets - and some of the reasoning is a bit dodgy with not too much data - but I do like them all.

1st-3rd Sep 2023 - Value Betting in German Bundesliga

Hallo meine freunde, open a nice cold beer and join me as we look for good Bundesliga bets this weekend.

We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :

We've got have five games to look at - and few confusing picks to analyse (and change) :
1/ Leverkusen and Darmstadt to DRAW at odds of 7.00 with 21% chance for 147% value.
2/ HOFFENHEIM to beat Wolfsburg at odds of 2.55 with 43% chance for 110% value.
3/ FREIBURG to win at Stuttgart at odds of 3.20 with 38% chance for 122% value.
4/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat Bayern Munich at odds of 8.50 with 22% chance for 187% value.
5/ UNION BERLIN to beat RB Leipzig at odds of 3.30 with 53% chance for 175% value.

It looks simple enough, but there are a few fish hooks and traps and alters to discuss, and I'm going to alter the bets slightly as I think it improves the chances of a profitable weekend - we will see if you agree.

Firstly, let's start with the Leverkusen v Darmstadt game, where the form says Leverkusen win easily. Leverkusen have started with 2 wins, Darmstadt have two losses so it's easy to pick a home win - but football is not like that and streaks don't go on together. A price of just 1.20 on the home win means that Leverkusen would have to win 5 times out of 6 just to break even. That's a 83% win rate, and our sheet is giving it a 67% chance. The simpliest bet is to LAY against Leverkusen winning at the exchanges at 1.20 (Risk 1 unit to win 5) or bet on X2 at a price around 5 (it will probably be slightly less because bookies are B@st@rds!)

Hoffenheim to win at home against Wolfsburg is easy enough to see - Hoffenheim 4-0-2 in last six homes while WOlfsburg are 3-0-3 on the road, so 2.55 is a great price for a very plausible home win.

Stuttgart (2.25) and Freiburg (3.20) are evenly matched, both teams have about 38/39% chance to win in the sheets opinion, so we simply go wih the bigger price because we chase the best value.

Taking Monchengladbach to beat Bayern Munich seems foolish at first glance, but the sheet looks deeper than this season. Consider that Monchengladbach love to beat Bayern Munich - they've done it here is FOUR of the last six seasons at prices of 5.00, 6.50 and 7.00 and suddenly the bet looks better. OK - Bayern have Harry Kane and look good right now. But weird sh!t happens when these sides play. To make the bet slightly more likely we can include the draw as well as it's also great value - so you can take Monchengladbach double chance (1X) or LAY Bayern Munich on the exchange and you should get a 49% chance of a collect at a price of 3.00

Finally, Union Berlin to win at home is always a good bet if you can get over even money. Union Berlin went 11-6-0 at home last season. I know that RB Leipzig are a good side, but Union have won this fixture on each of the last three occasions by a 2-1 scoreline each time. I will note that the draw price is also fair value so you could consider hedging an insurance bet on the draw as cover if you are risk adverse.

And that's it. We will be taking FIVE bets in the Bundesliga this weekend, and I've modified them a wee bit as I chase getting more wins and a profit.

1st-3rd Sep 2023- Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Sip an espresso and join me in a stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :

We've got FIVE draws on offer and one away win this weekend :
1/ Sassuolo and Verona to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 33% chance for 119% value.
2/ Udinese and Frosinone to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 30% chance for 108% value.
3/ Atalanta and Monza to DRAW at odds of 4.00 with 28% chance for 112% value.
4/ Torino and Genoa to DRAW at odds of 3.30 with 33% chance for 109% value.
5/ Lecce and Salernitana to DRAW at odds of 3.30 with 34% chance for 112% value.
6/ JUVENTUS to win at Empoli at odds of 1.67 with 56% chance for 94% value.

WE will talk three of the draws together, as they're a statistical group. Three of the draws are picked between smaller sides that are evenly matched and based on 350-450 similar games over 20 years of Serie A we have draws at 33-34% with this group. And price over 3.00 for these games is good value.

In the case of Atalanta v Monza and Udinese v Frosinone it's slightly different as the home side is clearly rated better, but draws still occur 28-30% of the time - so if the draw price slips up to around 4.00 then it's a bet worth taking on.

Finally, a quick look at the Juventus to win pick tells me it's likely but I don't really like the price as it's slightly under target - so I'll leave this bet alone.

And that's it. We will be taking FIVE draw bets in Serie A this weekend, looking for two or more draws in order to secure a profitable return.

Buona fortuna, amici

1st-3rd Sep 2023- Value Betting in English Premier League

Then we head off to England and take a look at the Premier League for round four - and value it a little hard to find this weekend.

A review of last week shows just one of three bets landed - but it was the Arsenal v Fulham draw at 7.00 (which I eventaully got placed at 7.32!) and so although we only had one win - it was a good payday with 3 units bet a 7.32 units returned. Job done !

Here is the sheet output for this week .

The spreadsheet likes one good value bet :
1/ Liverpool and Aston Villa to draw at odds of 4.50 with 29% chance for 131% value rating


A quick look shows that Aston Villa are in good form, they draw 1-1 here last season, so you can see it's a reasonable chance anda good value bet.

There are a few other value propositions worth looking at too :
2/ NOTTINGHAM FOREST to win or draw at Chelsea at 8.50 / 4.75 for 17% / 29% chance and 145% / 138% value.
3/ SHEFFIELD UNITED to beat Everton at odds of 3.00 with 41% chance for 123% value.
4/ ARSENAL to beat Manchester Utd at odds of 1.80 with 69% chance for 124% value.

Looking at them quickly.

Chelsea have been very average and a 3-0 win over new boys Luton doesn't fix much. Nottingham Forest have lost their first two games narrowly, 1-2 at Arsenal and 2-3 at Man United. Maybe saying Forest will win is too much but you can get around 2.75 for a bet on Forest to get at least a point (X2). Which is great value !

Then a bet on SHEFFIELD UTD (who only lost 1-2 to Man City last weekend) to beat EVERTON (who were thumped 0-4 at Villa) seems a logical conclusion - and you can get 3.00 too! I'm on it.

Finally, I bet with the sheet last week when it said Arsenal would disappoint against Fulham - so of course I'm taking it here when it says the The Gunners will come good. Arsenal have won this fixture on four of the last five occasions, and ManYoo have already lost 0-2 at Spurs this season. An Arsenal win is NOT unlikely - and the maths says better than fair value. So I'm on.

So four bets for me in the EPL this weekend, although only one recommended by the sheet. What will you take ?

1st-3rd Sep 2023- Value Betting in Spain's La Liga

¡Hola de nuevo! We will start this weekend's value hunt with a trip to Spain to examine the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.

Before we look at this week - I must put my hand up and apoligise for last week. I picked 3 picks and none of them won - although Real Betis did go 2-0 ahead before finding a way to lose 2-4 !

And to add insult to injury both of the sheet picks that I did not like and so did not take actually won at prices of 4.00 and 2.63 to show a very healthy PROFIT. Lesson learned.

Here is the sheet output.

The spreadsheet likes two good value bets :
1/ ALAVES to beat Valencia at odds of 3.00 with 47% chance for 141% value rating.
2/ ALMERIA to beat Celta Vigo 2.75 with 44% chance for 121% value rating.

I like both of these bets and the value is clearly there too.

The spreadsheet also likes :
3/ Atl. Madrid and Sevilla to draw at odds of 4.50 with 19% chance for just 86% value rating !!
4/ OSASUNA to beat Barcelona at odds of 5.00 with 22% chance for 110% value rating !!

Now I don't really like either of those right now - the draw is the wrong price - and while the Osasuna win is a better bet I'd want a price of around 7.00 to chase it. Perhaps it will get there before kickoff ?

So I'm just taking the first two bets myself - unless the odds on the last two improve significantly - what are you doing ?

26th-28th Aug 2023 Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Put down your coffee and join me in a stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for "buon valoure" betting.

Here is what the sheet has to say about the second round of football in Serie A :

Just one game is liked by the sheet this weekend :
1/ LECCE to win at Fiorentina at odds of 6.50 with 17% chance for 111% value.

When I look at the game I don't like the match up - Fiorentina are significantly stronger, and finished last season 4-2-0 at home, while Lecce were not great on the road, they did beat Monza 1-0, but lost four of their last six. One ray of hope is the head to head here with Lecce winning three of the last six clashes so perhaps a punt at 6.50 is not such a bad idea? Dodgy at best.

For me Serie A is the hardest of the big leagues to make money out of. The big sides have got bigger. Home advantage has dwindled from 47%-50% chance 10 years ago down to 40%-42% win chance today as favourites now seem to be able to win both home and away.

There one game that I do like this weekend though :
2/ SALERNITANA to beat Udinese at odds of 3.00 with 47% chance for 141% value.

Let's look closer at this one. Udinese ended last season poorly with 5 away losses in a row while Salernitana finished well with a 3-3-0 record at home including wins over Atalanta and .. Udinese paying much the same price (2.88). Salernitana started this season with a 2-2 draw as AS Roma which has to be considered a solid result, while Udinese lost 0-3 at home to Juventus. So why the good price? I'll take it.

And that's it. You could look at Cagliari (7.50) to upset Inter Milan, or Verona (4.33) to beat AS Roma but as I indicated above, times are a-changing in Serie A so I think we'll take it slowly in the opening few rounds.

Buona fortuna, amici

25th-28th Aug 2023- Value Betting in Spain's La Liga

Then it's a quick trip to Spain to run our eye over the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.

Here is the sheet output.

The spreadsheet likes two bets :
1/ CELTA VIGO to shock Real Madrid at odds of 5.50 with 24% chance for 132% value rating.
2/ OSASUNA to win at Valencia at odds of 4.00 with 27% chance for 108% value rating.

I think my spreadsheet is heavily influenced by Real Madrid's awful season last year when they went 11-1-7 on the road, and blind batting against R.M paid good money often for a great yield. Real Madrid always seem to beat Celta Vigo head to head with 10 wins and 2 draws in last 12 games - so I'm not convinced.

Osasuna do have a chance of a win at Valencia, but the price is pretty close to fair value, and my stats are not exact as they don't take into account recent transfers or injuries so I'm not impressed by an estimated 8% edge. Once again - I don't really like this bet too much.

So I will look at the value in these games :
3/ REAL BETIS to win at Bilbao at odds of 4.20 with 39% chance for 164% value rating.
4/ VILLARREAL to beat Barcelona at odds of 3.60 with 50% chance for 180% value rating.
5/ VALLECANO to beat Atl.Madrid at odds of 4.33 with 34% chance for 147% value rating.

Let's start with Real Betis in Bilbao. The visitors are better and won 8 away games last season including here in Bilbao. It's only a 39-40% chance but fair value would be 2.50 or thereabouts, so to get 4.20 (and prices still rising) is value - so this is one away win that I will take.

Villarreal to win at home to Barcelona? I like everything about this bet - except the head to head record. Villarreal have an inferiority complex about Barca and have gone 0-1-5 here in the last six season against them - and 1-0-5 in the Nou Camp too. Still these two sides are rated similarly when Villarreal are at home so have a 50% win chance and a price of 3.60 on the home win is the value play.

Finally, do you like Vallecano to beat Atleti Madrid? I do. Especially at prices above 4.00. Again the head to head is awful with A.M 10-2-0 in the twelve clashes in the last six seasons. But recent form as Vallecano wining four of their last six home games, and A.Madrid winning just one of six on the road. the price is too good to ignore.

So there we are - the sheet has two options which I'm ignoring - and instead I'm going for three outsider bets - where we need just one to win to make a profit.

Which bets will you go for? Good luck with your punts.

25th - 27th Aug 2023 - Value bets for the Bundesliga

Onto Germany's Bundesliga which is rapidly becoming my favourite league to watch, and bet on, and Week #2 has a couple of good options to consider.

Here is how the sheet sees Week #2.

The sheet has highlighted bets in two games, and there one more that interests me too.
1/ BOCHUM to beat Dortmund at odds of 7.00 @ 29% win chanch for 203% value
2/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat Leverkusen at odds of 3.75 @ 37% win chance for 139% value

Let's take a look at those in order ...

Yes Dortmund are a good side (they were better last season and still lost 6 road games) and I have Dortmund half a goal better, but I just think that the price on Bochum has been massively affected by their 0-5 thrashing at Stuttgart last weekend. A price of 7.00 on a home win in the Bundesliga is usually too much. Here it's twice of our estimated fair value - we have to bet on it.

Borussia Monchengladbach are my favourite tongue twisting team - especially when they play at home where they have vocal backing of their fans. Last season B.Monch were 10-3-4 at home and just 1-7-9 on the road !! The rule is simple - back Monchengladbach at home when they offer good value.

And then there is this game :
3/ MAINZ to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at odds of 2.55 @ 50% win chance for 128% value

This is a typical Bundesliga mid-team clash, Mainz are better at home, Frankfurt struggle a bit on the road, and based on an analysis of 334 previously similarly rated GBL games the results are a almost perfect 50%-25%-25% split in favour of the home side. We've being offered significantly more than 2.00 - so we take it.

Ok - There's the Germany round up - three good bets I think.

25th-27th Aug 2023 - Value Betting in EPL

Welcome to week #3 of the 2023/24 season in the English Premier League as we once again look for value bets.

We have ten games to choose from this weekend and the sheet has picked four games with good betting value and maybe one more more potential bet that I'll discuss - but will we take them?

Anyway here is the spreadsheet online output for the EPL in week #3

The sheet recommends :
1/ BOURNEMOUTH to beat Tottenham at odds of 3.75 @ 34% chance is 128% value.
2/ Arsenal v Fulham DRAW at odds of 7.00 @ 28% chance is 196% value.
3/ BURNLEY to beat Aston Villa at odds of 3.60 @ 36% chance is 130% value
4/ SHEFF. UTD to beat Man City at odds of 18.00 @ 9% chance is 162% value

Looking at those four recommendations in order ...

Bournemouth are underdogs to beat Tottenham as Spurs have looked OK and won well last week against Man United, but on the road they've struggled (last season Spurs went 6-5-8 - EIGHT lossses) and the price being offered on the home win is too high.

I hate it when my sheet goes against the Arsenal, but it's often right. here we are getting 7.00 for the draw and 13.00 for a Fulham win - both are very high prices for a competitive games. When you consider that Arsenal are 3-3-0 in their last 6 home games against Fulham (3 draws!!) the 7.00 looks attractive.

Burnley to beat Aston Villa plays out much like the first pick. Villa are the better side - about 6/10ths of a goal better - but a home win would not be a major shock - it happened in this fixture two seasons again - and Villa's 1-5 loss at Newcastle shows some issues on the road. High price - I'll take it.

Finally, Sheffield United to shock Man City is a dubious bet. It's only 9% likely but that price of 18.00 stands out like a beacon. ManCity went 65-14-17 on the road in the last five seasons - impressive but not unbeatable. In that time they've lost twice at similar odds - so it can happen it's just very unlikely.

ONe other game that has appealing odds but is not a sheet tip is :

Luton Town to get something at Chelsea with the draw at 6.50 (169%) and the away win at 12.00 (261%) but after LUton lost 1-4 away at Brighton on opening day I just wonder if the sheet still doesn't have an accurate measure of Luton's strength. Chelsea are likely to bounce back with a narrow win here - so it's probably best left alone.

There we are - four sheet recommended bets plus one other possible - personally I'm going to take the first THREE bets and try to get some profits on the board. I will NOT bet on the extreme outsider options of Sheffield United and Luton to cause major shocks. These will be more likely later in the season when the big sides also have European distractions.

So what will you take?

19th-21st Aug 2023 Italian Serie A Spreadsheet Value Bets

Ciao ragazzi! It's time to look at value bets for the final league for the weekend - as the Italian Serie A finally gets underway for 2023/24.

Here is what the sheet has to say about the opening weekend in Serie A :

1. EMPOLI to beat Verona at odds of 2.39 with 46% chance for 109% value.
2. UDINESE to beat Juventus at odds of 4.33 with 36% chance for value of 150%
3. Torino and Cagliari to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 33% chance for 119% value.

While I run my eyes over those stats and like the look of :
4. LAZIO to win at Lecce at odds of 2.10 with 68% chance for 143% value


Let's discuss shall we ?

Let's start at the top, Empoli are rated half a goal better than Verona, and are considered 46% likely to win based on 431 previous games - so this sort of matchup in strength happens a lot and I have high confidence in the percentage estimate. So around 2.15 would be fair for the home side and we can get around 2.38 to 2.40 if your quick. Take it.

Then there is the upset pick of UDINESE to beat Juventus but really what else can you do here. Juve are slightly stronger rated at 1048 to Udinese's 1031, so Juve are more likely to win at 38% to Udinese's 36%, but the prices for the two sides are miles apart with the home side getting 4.33 compared to Juve's miserly 1.70. Udinese do beat Juve from time to time - they last won in 2020 and were paying 5.25 that day too. It is the value play.

Picking a draw between Torino and Cagliari is not a shock - these two sides are decidedly average, and there are plenty of draws in Seriue A between average sides as somehow it's considered honourable. We have data from 470 previous games in the last 25 season in Serie A with similarly marched sides and 33% of those games finished all square. Getting paid 3.60 instead of 3.00 is getting a 20% edge. Take it.

Finally, I have LAZIO at a good price to win away from home. What worries me here is that Lazio are pretty obvious favourites based on history and club size, and it's pre4tty clear that they're a goal better than Lecce. I expected prices around 1.50 - not 2.10 - but those good prices ar still there - so I'll take it.

Ok - so that's it - four picks for Serie A - and value picks for all four main leagues. If you would like to see me do this EVERY weekend - then how about leaving me a comment to prove that someone is actually reading this stuff eh?

18th-21st Aug 2023 Spanish La Liga Spreadsheet Value Bets

Now we are up to Spain as La Liga enters it's second week, and it's a pretty straight forward betting style this week as home wins are favoured in all the bets.

The Sheet likes three home win bets :

1. ALMERIA to shock Real Madrid at odds of 8.50 with 23% chance for 184% value rating.
2. ALAVES to beat Sevilla at odds of 3.30 with 34% chance for 112% value rating.
3. GRANADA to beat Vallecano at odds of 2.70 with 42% chance for 113% value rating.

And I also like these games too :
4. MALLORCA to beat Villarreal at odds of 2.90 with 44% chance for 128% value rating.
5. OSASUNA to beat Bilbao at odds of 2.90 with 42% chance for 125% value rating.
6. REAL BETIS to beat Atl. Madrid at odds of 3.80 with 39% chance for 144% value rating.

Now let's go through a bit of analysis on these - but it's safe to say that home wins is where it's at this weekend (hopefully).

Almeria's pick as a shock winner stands out, they're only considered a 23% chance to do it, but if you think that is too high thenconsider that mighty Real Madrid has a 11-1-7 road record last season which is a 36% loss record. Once you've absorbed that you migt agree that 23% is fair chance (the sheet looked at 73 previously similiar games to calculate it) and so a price of 4.50 would be fair and 8.50 is great value!

Alaves also have a reasonable chance against Sevilla, and remember that Sevilla have just played against Man City in Athens in midweek, which might add to tired legs for the visitors late on. Worth a punt to me.

Granada to win at home looks more straight forward, both sides are poor, but equally poor and the sheet has just 4 ranking points between them (967 to 963) which is only a fraction of a goal, and that often results in a 1-0 home win. The 2.70 price is more than fair - so I will take it.

We also have Mallorca as better than Villarreal by about 2/10ths of a goal, and home advantage could force a narrow win. I was expecting a 2.10-ish price so 2.90 was snapped up while it's there.

Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao are well matched with little to choose between them. My sheet has found 365 similar ranked games in LA liga in the last 25 years and found that the home side won 43% of them. Then consider that Osasuna have won 5 of their last 6 home games last season and you see that a price of 2.90 is too attractive to pass up.

Finally, I have Real Betis as underdogs against Atletico Madrid, but not by so much. Real Betis last 6 home games saw them go 2-2-2. Atl. Madrid's last six away games saw 2-2-2 also. Head to head here goes 1-2-3 in slight favour of the visitors but still it's an even game. The biggest odds are 3.80 on the home win, compared to 2.00 for the visitors. Honestly .. where do you think the value lies? Yup. Home win.

OK Senor - that's the lot for La Liga this week. Good luck with your bets.

Value Betting in Germany Week #1 - Bundesliga Spreadsheet bets.

Onto Germany then where we have opening weekend, with Bayern Munich starting the season a little slowly - losing 0-3 to RB Leipzig in the German Super Cup last Saturday.

Here is how the sheet sees opening weekend.

The sheet has highlighted bets in four games, and there are another couple that interest me too.

1. FREIBURG to win at Hoffenheim at odds of 3.00 @ 38% win chanch for value of 114%
2. Dortmund and Cologne to DRAW at odds of 5.25 @ 24% win chance of value of 126%
3. UNION BERLIN to beat Mainz at odds of 2.00 @ 70% win chance for 140% value
4. Ein. Frankfurt and Darmstadt to DRAW at odds of 5.25 @ 24% win chance for value of 126%

let's take a look at those in order ...

Freiburg were the surprise team least season finishing just outside te top four. They haven't lost anyone of note and should be competitive again this season. Hoffenheim are good at home - normally, but they've lost 3 of their last four games against Freiburg here -and drew the other ... so trends favour Freiburg alright.

Dortmund are one of my favourite German sides, and the "Buzzy bees" (I know it's NOT their nickname but ..) suffered heartbreak last season when that finally had the Bundesliga title within thier grasp only to lose it with ahome draw on the final day. Cologne are Koln. Midtable last season, they've strengthened a bit and could easily earn a draw - I have it as a 24% chance but it's only based on 25 previously similar games so that estimate could be off.

Union Berlin are the good time story for anyone who likes "the little club" that over achieves. At home UB went 11-6-0 from 17 home games, and they've beaten Mainz on each of the last 3 occasions that they've met here. Mainz are average - 9th last season, and look the same this season. The bookies don't seem tot think "little" Union can do it again. I'll take that bet.

The Eintracht Frankfurt v Darmstadt DRAW pick is the dodgiest choice. Eintracht looked good last season, have started this season with a good cup win (7-0 over Lokomotiv Leipzig) and have signed some good players too. But ... FRankfurt did draw four of their last six home games here last season, and the estimate of 24% draw chance is based on a solid 113 previous games data. The price is good.

Ok - then onto two other games that appeal to me.

5. AUGSBURG to beat Monchengladbach at odds of 2.70 @ 43% win chance for value of 116%
6. Bremen and Bayern Munich to draw art odds of 7.00 @ 27% win chance for value of 186% !!

You know that I could not leave the highest value bet alone. A draw here is paying almost twice what it should be according to my stats. There are plenty of reasons not to take the bet - including the fact that Bayern Munich always win here ... 16 games in a row !! But I can't resist such a good price .. you might be stronger (more sensible) than me.

The AUGSBURG pick is more about betting against Borrusia Monchengladbach on the road. BM are a famous old club, but they are far more powerful at home in front of their fans. On the road they tend to wilt too often, and went 0-3-3 to finsh last season. Throw in the fact that Augsburg have won this fixture three times in a row - and you know I'm taking that value bet.

So there is six games for you, and if we get two or more winners then we make a profit. Nice!

Value Betting in Week #2 - EPL Spreadsheet bets.

Hello and welcome to week #2of the 2023/24 season as we try to navigate the odds and find profitable betting in the English Premier League.

We have nine games to choose from this weekend as Luton v Brighton has been postponed as Lutons' stadium rebuild has not quite completed yet. We didn't they just reverse the fixture so that both teams could play? No idea - seems an obvious solution to me.

Anyway here is the spreadsheet online output for the EPL in week #2

The spreadsheet recommends three value bets, but also ignores what looks like four other good value punts, so we will investigate to output to determine why and whether we should bet on them too.

The sheet recommends :
1/ Liverpool v Bournemouth DRAW at odds of 7.00 @ 19% chance is 133% value.
2/ EVERTON to win away at Aston Villa at odds of 5.25 @ 21% chance is 110% value.
3/ CRYSTAL PALACE to beat Arsenal at odds of 6.00 @ 20% chance is 120% value

Looking at those three recommendations in order ...

Liverpool are clear favourites, and rated strongly by my sheet as a 74% win chance ... but ... Liverpool have drawn 2 or their last six home games, and all four of the wins have been by a single goal margin. That's hardly the form of a team that you want to back at a win price of just 1.20 and the draw at 7.00 DOES seem a good bet.

Everton lost a home last week so why does the sheet want to back them here? Well firstly, Aston Villa got thumped 1-5 at Newcastle so they're wobbling early on. And secondly, Everton finished last season quite well on the road with just one loss in six games. If Everton can score first then the upset is on. However, it's only rated a 21% chance, and Aston Villa won six home games on the trot at the end of last season so it's a roughy.

I hate my sheet sometimes. But when it picks an Arsenal upset on the road it's right often enough to make a profit. It's picked it seven times in the last two years, got it right twice and received 13.10 return on 7 units bet. So even as a Gooner I'll probably take it - and be happy if this bet loses.

But there are four other bets that look great value too - but not indicated so lets look at them too.

1/ MAN CITY to beat NEWCASTLE at 1.67 odds @ 80% win chance - 132% value !!
Man City seem to win everything at home - they've won their last six home games, and their last six homes against Newcastle. Newcastle are good but still no match. I think it's a good bet.

2/ WOLVES to beat Brighton at odds of 3.80 @ 36% win chance at 137% value.
The price on Wolves is very, very good and still rising. Wolves won 4 of last 6 at home, Brighton 2-0-4 last six on the road, H2H last 5 seasons have just one Wolves win. Brighton beat Luton last week - but Wolves are tougher, especially at home. I do actually have Brighton as 42% win favourites here - but the value on this game is definately with Wolves. Take it.

Also TOTTENHAM to beat Manchester United at odds of 2.88 @ 49% win chance - 141% value ?!
The value is there - if you beleive in the Spurs rating after Harry Kane's departure. I don't. Tottenham 3-1-2 last six at home, ManUtd 2-1-3 last six away, H2H here at The Lane is 1-2-3 in favour of United. Both sides were a bit average on matchday one. IF you had this game as 33% Spurs win then it's probably a fair bet - not a value one. I will NOT take it.

Finally, BRENTFORD to win at Fulham at odds of 2.60 @ win chance of 46% for 120% value.
Fulham are Ok, but home form is only average at 2-1-3 in last 6 games (two of those losses were to Man City and Arsenal though), while Brentford are 2-1-3 on the last 6 road games. I have Brentford about 1/3 of a goal better but is that enough to force the issue. This bet could be value - I would not blame you if you took it. But with five bets already marked in the EPL I will leave it alone.

So there it is - week #2 calculated and evaluated. Well make a profit with two wins, of even 1 win if it's Crystal Palace, or Bournemouth get a draw.

Good luck.