Selling Orcs, Ogres and Dragons at Ebay - check it out.

In a post that will catch some of you off-guard, I'm selling off a large portion of my collectables rather than pack them up again and shift then when I move house - and i have posted them all at Ebay.

I have Orcs, lots of Orcs, Orcs with Bows, Orcs with Axes, Orcs with War Machines, as well as a small Band of Ogres, and two Groups of Dragons.

You can find all the individual listings here. Click the red links to visit the listing.

FOR SALE - 16 x Orc Arrer Boyz - Painted Citadel Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer
You are looking at 16 hand painted Citadel metal miniatures from the early 90's. These Orc archers aka "the Arrer Boyz" were designed by Kev Adams and released in 1991 for use in the Warhammer Fantasy Battle table top game.

FOR SALE - 18 x Orc Axes - Painted Citadel / Marauder Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer
You are looking at 18 hand painted Marauder metal miniatures from the early 90's. These Orc Warriors aka "the Boyz" were designed by Kev Adams and released in 1991 for use in the Warhammer Fantasy Battle table top game.

FOR SALE - 12 x Black Orcs (RR18)- Painted Citadel Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer
Here is a classic 12 figure unit of Black Orcs, hand-painted and battle-tested Citadel Miniatures from the mid 1980's for the Warhammer fantasy battle table top game. Known as RR18 Eeza Ugezod's Mother Crushers Black Orcs.

FOR SALE - 17 x Ruglud's Armoured Orcs (RRD5) - Raw Citadel Metal Figures for Warhammer
These Orc boyz aka "Ruglud's Armoured Orcs" were designed by Kev Adams and released as a Regiment of Reknown in 1988 for use in the Warhammer Fantasy Battle table top game. These are in excellent condition and are now Out of Production and bring any Orc army a good fighting unit.

FOR SALE - Orc Bolt Thrower - Hand Painted Warhammer Citadel Metal Miniature Figures
Up for grabs is an Orc war machine and crew which are second hand Citadel Miniatures from 1988-1991 for the Warhammer fantasy battle table top game. These war machines gave the greenskins some ranged weapons to hit the massed human or stunty ranks.

FOR SALE - Orc Rock Chukka - Hand Painted Citadel Metal Miniature Figures for Warhammer
Another Orc war machine and crew which are second hand Citadel Miniatures from 1988-1991 for the Warhammer fantasy battle table top game. These war machines gave the greenskins some ranged weapons to hit the massed human or stunty ranks.

FOR SALE - 5 Ogres (RR8) - Hand Painted Citadel Warhammer Metal Miniature Figures
You are looking at 5 hand painted Citadel miniatures known as Golfag's Other Regiment of Mercenary Ogres (RR12) who were released in 1987 for the Games Workshop Warhammer table top game.

Emerging Green Dragon from egg from Windstone Editions US - circa 1984 – Sculptor Melody Pena
Here is a Green Empress Dragon (the best color) emerging out of her egg as sculpted by celebrated artist Melody Pena. This girl is nearly 40 years old, created in 1984 by the crew at Windstone editions.

FOR SALE - 3 Enchantica Dragons - Snappa Plays Ball, Snappa Finds a Collar, Snappa Climbs
We have 3 versions of "Snappa" the young dragon from the Enchantica range for sale.

Value Bets 29th Sept to 2nd Oct

Afternoon - ladies and gents - thanks for coming back for another weekend of value betting.

From now on - the analysis is going to be different. I will show you the output - outline the recommended bets - and then leave it as that. If you want to as questions you can find my GoonersGuide Betting Blog here at and I'm happy to discuss.

Here is the output for all four leagues ...

I said I wouldn’t do match analysis - so I won’t.

But I will discuss the general concepts of value betting again, and this weekends bets in particular. The concept is simple, bet where the payout is better than the chances of winning suggest. It does not matter whether you think the individual bet will win this time, because over the course of the football season you will get rewards.

If you’re not sure that you trust this system yet then just take each bet for $1 online. Or whatever minimum your bookie offers.

USA and CANADA players can use BETONLINE or BOOKMAKER or BOVADA
UK / EURO / CAN / AUS / NZ can play at BET365

Track the results. See what you make of it. I understand it takes time to bet with confidence.

I have made profits in 23 of the last 25 seasons betting like this - and each of the last TEN seasons straight. I’m confident which is why I publish this advisory page. But not every bet will win. In fact only about 25-35% of bets will. And most punters cannot handle that.

Overall we will make money - at least that is always my aim.

For this weekend we have six win bets, and we need three winners for a profit - or for Wolves to pull of a shock.

We also have six draw bets, and here the prices are better so we need two draws or better to make a profit.

If you cannot get these prices at your bookie, if the odds are considerably lower, then do NOT take the bet. if the prices are higher then that’s because everyone else is rushing to back the favourites - thank your lucky stars - and then take the better odds.

Good luck - and mayben I will see you next weekend ?
;-)

Cheers !!!
Paul (The Gooner)

ESP - 26th- 28th Sep 2023 - Value Bets in La Liga

¡Hola de nuevo! Let's look at Spain's midweek La Liga schedule and find some betting action.

Here is the sheet output - for the upcoming mid-week :

The spreadsheet likes two bets in midweek :
1/ MALLORCA to win or draw vs Barcelona at odds of 2.50 with 50% chance for 125% value.
2/ REAL SOCIEDAD to win at Valenica at odds of 2.90 with 43% chance for 125% value.

Let’s take a look at it now.

Barcelona are doing what Barcelona do. Winning games and sitting on top of the table. But on the road they've already had a draw and the other two games were won by a single goal. Betting on Barca to win at 1.55 is silly. Poor value. But opposing them at 2.50 is a good play.

In the second match, the sheet likes Real Sociedad to beat Valencia. It not an obvious pick, but we have R.Sociedad as slightly stronger and a database of previous results that says they're 43% likely. So the price is right. And so we take it.

And that's it. Two bets and again we need one to hit to make an overall profit.

Good Luck.

ISA - 26th to 28th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Let's quickly go through the Serie A matches in midweek looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for 26th-28th September.

We’ve got two bets to consider in midweek :
1/ Empoli and Salernitana to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 33% chance for 106% value.
2/ ROMA to win at Genoa at odds of 2.20 with 42% chance for just 92% value.

The Empoli v Salernitana draw is clear - it's not a sure thing at all at 33% - but with both sides already close to the bottom it will be a case of defence first and a 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 or 1-1 score line looks likely. The draw is a good value bet.

The second bet is to take AS Roma to beat Genoa, which is not at quite fair value, but the spreadsheet is recommending, probably influenced by the fact that AS Roma have won this fixture in each of the last 3 seasons. Take the bet.

And that’s it. Short and sweet. Two bets and we only need one to win to collect a profit.

Buona fortuna, amici

EPL - 23rd-24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in English Premier League

Let's head off to England and take a look at the Premier League for the latest round - and find a wee bit of value. Here is the sheet output for this week.

The spreadsheet has four bets indicated - and we will do a bit of tweaking.
1/ Man City and Nottingham to draw at odds of 8.50 with 18% chance for 153% value rating
2/ BURNLEY to beat Man United at odds of 4.40 with 33% chance and 145% value.
3/ Brighton and Bournemouth to draw at odds of 5.25 with 26% chance for 137% value.
4/ SHEFFIELD UTD to beat Newcastle Utd at odds of 7.50 with 25% chance for 188% value.

So how do the bets stack up? Lets examine the numbers.

Manchester City are winning everything. But they played in the Champions League in midweek and frankly a hic-cup is due. Nottingham Forest have lost at Arsenal and Man Utd by 1 goal each time and won 1-0 at Chelsea. So they're a good underdog candidate. The system actually picked an away win (6%) at 19.00 - but I'd modify to a draw or draw/away to improve the chances of collecting.

Next is BURNLEY to beat Manchester United at 4.40 and the odds are still climbing. Personally I think that ManYoo have been unlucky on the road, and are due a win - and they do seem to win here at Turf Moor with 5 wins in the last six trips. However the stats say of 123 previously similar games (statistically) this result likelihood is dead even at 33% for Home win, 33% for Draw, 33% for away win. Perhaps a bet on home / draw to maximise chances again.

Our 3rd pick is a draw with Bournemouth to hold Brighton. The Seagulls have been on fire with a 4-0-1 record and they look good but a midweek loss in Europe is both tiring and confidence shaking and Bournemouth have managed a draw in 3 of their first 5 EPL fixtures. the 26% chance feels about right - so 4.00 would be fair and 5.25+ is a steal at good value. And THAT is our game.

Finally, would it really be a major shock if travel weary Newcastle (played in Italy in midweek) were beaten by Sheffield United?? It's only a 25% chance - but Newcastle have already lost 2 away games in the EPL this season and the price is too good to ignore.

1/ Man City and Nottingham to draw / away at odds of 5.75 with 24% chance for 138% value rating
2/ BURNLEY to win / draw v Man United at odds of 2.15 with 66% chance and 141% value.
3/ Brighton and Bournemouth to draw at odds of 5.25 with 26% chance for 137% value.
4/ SHEFFIELD UTD to beat Newcastle Utd at odds of 7.50 with 25% chance for 188% value.

So there we have it - four bets - and hopefully a profit.

ESP - 22nd - 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Spain's La Liga

¡Hola de nuevo! Let's look at Spain to examine the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.

Here is the sheet output - for the weekend and upcoming mid-week :

The spreadsheet likes just one bet on the weekend at perceived good value :
1/ ALMERIA to beat Valencia at odds of 2.90 with 43% chance for 125% value rating.

Let’s take a look at it now.

Let's just say that it's a bet that ONLY a spreadsheet could love. Almeria are rock bottom of La Liga with an 0-1-4 record and there is little sign of a home win coming. They might win. But even though the current price is good value I'd want a wee bit more before I take a team at the bottom of the league to get their first win. A bet to avoid.

And that's it. One bet highlighted by the spreadsheet and I've rubbished it. Everything else is well priced by the bookies - which is actually a good sign that the "spreadie" has accurately evaluated this round because the bookies agree with it. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all.

I'll be back on Monday afternoon to look at all the midweek action.

Good Luck.

GBL - 22nd - 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in German Bundesliga

Hallo meine freunde, join me as we look for good Bundesliga bets this weekend.

We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :

We've got have four games to look at - 3 home wins and a very unlikely draw :
1/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat RB Leipzig at odds of 5.00 with 34% chance for 179% value
2/ DORTMUND to beat Wolfsburg at odds of 1.73 with 69% chance for 119% value.
3/ UNION BERLIN to win at Hoffenheim at odds of 2.05 with 57% chance for 117% value.
4/ Leverkusen v Heidenheim to DRAW at odds of 6.50 with 20% chance for 130% value

However, there are a couple of things that mean not all bets are sound.

Two of the home wins are clear enough as both DORTMUND and UNION BERLIN are solid favourites and being priced quite highly. This is probably due to the midweek Champions League games that both sides have had to play, and it's something thatr the sheet does not factor in. Still both bets are sound and should be taken.

The next pick of MONCHENGLADBACH is riskier and with a far higher potential reward. Leipzig are the better side, and even my sheet has Leipzig as favourites to win, but the odds being offered on the home side - who have won this fixture in EACH of the last three seasons - mean that the value and therefore our betting eye must be on the home side.

The final pick is a potential draw between Leverkusen and Heidenheim at a very tasty price of 6.50. It's only a 20% chance - but Heidenheim have already drawn 2-2 at Dortmund this season paying out at a price of 7.00 so there is some logic to the sheets pick. It's up to you whether you take this or not.

One other related note is that there is even more potential value in a draw between Bayern Munich and Bochum which pays 11.00 (!!) but is only 14% likely. In analysis of these unlikely draws the sheet has determined that chasing value below about 17-18% likelihood just does not payout often enough to keep punters happy. So this draw is not recommended. And you are taking your chances with the other one too.

So three home win bets - and I do like them all. Two potential value draws - maybe one is worth chasing? Your call.

ISA - 22nd to 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Grab an coffee let's quickly stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :

Note that this sheet show the weekend and midweek next week - but we will be focusing on the weekend in this briefing.

We’ve got three bets on offer this weekend :
1/ Salernitana and Frosinone to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 34% chance for 109% value.
2/ Lecce and Genoa to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 34% chance for 109% value.
3/ Lazio and Monza to DRAW at odds of 3.80 with 28% chance for 106% value.

The draws are straight forward enough to see, even if the Lazio v Monza one is a bit dodgy, and at these prices if we get one draw then we show a profit.

A note about 3 away win picks shown on the sheet (games with the “-” symbol in V1 column), all are reasonable picks, but all come in at about 97-99% which is NOT quite value. If you can get a better price than the one shown then they’re worth taking.

And that’s it. Three bets to choose from - if you take two of them you only need one to win to collect a profit. I’ll take all three.

Buona fortuna, amici

ESP - 16th-18th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Spain's La Liga

¡Hola de nuevo! We will start this weekend's value hunt with a trip to Spain to examine the La Liga schedule and find some betting action that appeals.

Here is the sheet output.

The spreadsheet likes one bet at perceived good value :
1/ MALLORCA to win at Celta Vigo at odds of 4.20 with 27% chance for 109% value rating.

And also one bet even though it’s not good value ?
2/ Sevilla and Las Palmas to draw at 4.00 with 21% chance for 84% value rating ?! WTF?

Let’s take a look at both bets now.

Firstly, MALLORCA winning at Celta Vigo isn’t an outrageous idea. The last six occurrences of this fixture have gone 2 HW, 2 Draws, 2 AW, and Celta Vigo have lost both home games so far in this seasons campaign so they’re ripe for picking. The problem is that Mallorca are not a great road team and have failed to win at Granada or Las Palmas already this season - and both those opponents are probably weaker than Celta Vigo. So it’s a weak bet even if its good value.

The second bet is a draw flagged up by one of the old DV systems. It’s a system with a +10% yield even with these low value punts but it’s 0-2 so far this season. I don’t like it - I suspect that Sevilla will eke out a 1-0 win here. So I won’t take it.

So of the two spreadsheet identified bets - I’m taking neither of them.

But if you must bet on La Liga this weekend - you could try a tenner on these three :
1/ Real Madrid and Real Sociedad to draw at odds of 4.00 with 32% chance for 128% value.
2/ REAL BETIS to win at Barcelona at odds of 8.50 with 17% chance for 144% value.
3/ CADIZ to win at Bilbao at odds of 7.00 with 24% chance for 168% value.

All three bets are on underdogs - and the prices are still going up so you can wait to get even better value. Don’t expect all three bets to win but if one of them comes in then we are in profit and I think that it’s a coin toss that will happen.

Good Luck.

ISA - 16th to 18th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Grab an espresso and join me in a stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :

We've got three bets on offer this weekend :
1/ CAGLIARI to beat Udinese at odds of 2.88 with 42% chance for 121% value.
2/ FIORENTINA to beat Atalanta at odds of 2.40 with 45% chance for 108% value.
3/ EMPOLI to win or draw at AS Roma are odds of 2.75 with 41% chance for 113% value.

Both Cagliari (H 1-0-5) and Udinese (A 0-1-5) have awful home /away form. Udinese are slightly stronger, but with home advantage we favour Cagliari as 42% likely to eke out a win.

Fiorentina at home are always a tough task, and the sheet likes them as 45% chance to win, so the price of 2.40 is worth taking.

Finally, while AS Roma will probably finally get a win this season, getting paid nearly 3.00 betting against a team that is 0-1-2 to not win is a pretty good bet to consider.

And that's it. Three bets to choose from - if you take two of them you only need one to win to collect a profit. I'll take all three.

Buona fortuna, amici

EPL - 16th-18th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in English Premier League

Then we head off to England and take a look at the Premier League for round five - and find a wee bit of value.

Here is the sheet output for this week.

The spreadsheet has four bets indicated - including opposing my team Arsenal again !! :
1/ Tottenham and Sheffield United to draw at odds of 5.75 with 22% chance for 127% value rating
2/ BRENTFORD to win at Newcastle at odds of 6.50 with 26% chance and 169% value.
3/ BOURNEMOUTH to beat Chelsea at odds of 4.75 with 36% chance for 171% value.
4/ EVERTON to beat Arsenal at odds of 6.00 with 18% chance for 108% value.

So do the bets stack up? Lets take a look

Tottenham have started life very well under their new manager, and should be favoured to win, but Sheffield United are not too far off the pace with 3 1-goal losses and a 2-2 draw against Everton last time out. A home win is almost 70% likely but the price is awful. You can get 6.00 now on the draw - even better than my sheet numbers. I'll be taking it.

Next up is BRENTFORD to shock at Newcastle. I expected more from the Geordies who have lost 3 of their first 4 games, and Brentford are unbeaten in their first 4 games - so I can see this happening. I'll take the bet but may add in a little bet on the draw as well for some insurance.

BOURNEMOUTH beating Chelsea seems reasonable to me, and at odds approaching 5.00 it's one that has to be taken. Clearly Chelsea have the more expensive squad, and are probably half a goal better, but home advantage counts and my stats suggest that in 115 previously similar games the home team won almost as often as the away side (36% to 39%). So I'll take the team offering a good payout.

Finally, the bet I hate - but have to admit I see why it's recommended is EVERTON to beat Arsenal. Everton are not good but they've won this fixture on 4 of the last five occasions- either 2-1 or 1-0. Arsenal are not playing that well but still have a 60% chance of winning at Goodison Park. But the value is definitely with Everton at 6.00

OK. That's four bets in the EPL for the weekend. One winner and we are in profit.

GBL - 15th-17th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in German Bundesliga

Hallo meine freunde, join me as we look for good Bundesliga bets this weekend.

We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :

We've got have five games to look at - and a few points to make :
1/ Bayern Munich v Leverkusen to DRAW at odds of 5.00 with 33% chance for 165% value.
2/ FREIBURG to beat Dortmund at odds of 3.30 with 36% chance for 119% value.
3/ UNION BERLIN to win at Wolfsburg at odds of 3.20 with 36% chance for 115% value.
4/ Bochum v Eintracht Frankfurt to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 30% chance for 108% value.
5/ DARMSTADT to beat Mochengladbach at odds of 3.00 with 46% chance for 138% value.

However, there are quite a few circumstances to consider here and not all bets are sound.

Let's start with the obvious. The stats for the first pick Bayern Munich v Leverkusen are based on just 3 previously similar games (3 obs). That's no basis for a statistical percentage so the real draw percentage could be anywhere from 20% to 40% and we cannot trust the calculation. That being said both sides have started with three wins and Leverkusen do look a good side this year. I do actually like the draw bet here but you can't beleive any percentage number based on just 3 games matched.

The next pick of FREIBURG to win has a lot more data (95 obs) and again I do like this pick. Freiburg started with twq narrow wins before being thumped at Stuttgart last time so they're under-rated a bit - and Dortmund look to be less of a unit than they hae been in recent years. I'll take this.

Bet #3 is UNION BERLIN to win at Wolfsburg. I perfer taking Union to win at home, but thy lost 0-3 last time out and perhaps they will bounce back here? Based on 203 similar games we have the results as 34-30-36% likely so the bigger price on the away side appeals.

Our fourth bet is a DRAW pick in the Bochum v Eintracht game. It's possible, and it's interesting that the sheet prefers this to the home win which is actually better value. Eintracht are favourites despite not winning on the road in their last six away games - and Bochum have won this fixture in each of the last two seasons. I think I actually prefer the home win.

Finally, we have DARMSTADT as good value to beat Monchengladbach. Both sides are a bit awful this season and already in relegation trouble. My sheet has found 69 previous Bundesliga games that were simialr statistically, and of those th home side won 46% - almost half! A price of 3.00 for a home win looks good.

So five bets - and some of the reasoning is a bit dodgy with not too much data - but I do like them all.