Here is what the sheet has to say about the second round of football in Serie A :
1/ LECCE to win at Fiorentina at odds of 6.50 with 17% chance for 111% value.
When I look at the game I don't like the match up - Fiorentina are significantly stronger, and finished last season 4-2-0 at home, while Lecce were not great on the road, they did beat Monza 1-0, but lost four of their last six. One ray of hope is the head to head here with Lecce winning three of the last six clashes so perhaps a punt at 6.50 is not such a bad idea? Dodgy at best.
For me Serie A is the hardest of the big leagues to make money out of. The big sides have got bigger. Home advantage has dwindled from 47%-50% chance 10 years ago down to 40%-42% win chance today as favourites now seem to be able to win both home and away.
There one game that I do like this weekend though :
2/ SALERNITANA to beat Udinese at odds of 3.00 with 47% chance for 141% value.
Let's look closer at this one. Udinese ended last season poorly with 5 away losses in a row while Salernitana finished well with a 3-3-0 record at home including wins over Atalanta and .. Udinese paying much the same price (2.88). Salernitana started this season with a 2-2 draw as AS Roma which has to be considered a solid result, while Udinese lost 0-3 at home to Juventus. So why the good price? I'll take it.
And that's it. You could look at Cagliari (7.50) to upset Inter Milan, or Verona (4.33) to beat AS Roma but as I indicated above, times are a-changing in Serie A so I think we'll take it slowly in the opening few rounds.
Buona fortuna, amici
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