Opening Weekend Value betting in English Premier League.

Summer seems to have taken twice as long this year - but finally the start of the English Premier league is here - and we have our first set of 10 games to evalute.

The published sheet output available online at https://www.goonersguide.com/numbers_spreadsheet.htm looks something like this :

Which suggests two value bets in the EPL this weekend - namely Burnley to win and Brighton v Luton to draw - but both recommendations have flaws that need to be considered.

Firstly, both recommendations suggest that promoted teams Burnley and Luton are going to do better than expected, and that could be a foible of the spreadsheet as it only processes Premier League results have much recent data on either side - Burnley have been out for a season and Luton for over 20 seasons and are starting with default data.

And secondly, value betting on spreadsheet recomended draws in the EPL did not do well last season going 2/14 and recording a loss. So we will avoid both recommendations in the first week and take a look at other value options.

By looking at the value percentages there ARE 4 bets that I think are worth trying in the first weekend.

1/ BRENTFORD to beat Tottenham at odds of 2.88 @ 45% chance for 131% Value.
2/ ASTON VILLA to win at Newcastle at odds of 5.00 @ 25% chance for 125% value
3/ FULHAM to win at Everton at odds of 3.30 @ 47% chance for 155% value.

I'm also tempted to take LUTON + 1/2 goal start on handicap to win or draw at odds of 3.30 @ 43% chance giving 141% value.

Do you agree? Do you disagree? Let me know.