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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Italy : Wednesday Betting Sheet Oct 31

We've got a full round of fixtures in Italy on Wednesday night and plenty of picks to consider from the sheet.

There are as many as SIX likely winners picked - all of them home wins - and all of the home sides rated as a full goal better than their opponents.

Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet
Juventus to beat Empoli @ 1.35 at PinnacleSports
Inter_Milan to beat Genoa @ 1.33 at PinnacleSports
Atalanta to beat Cagliari @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Fiorentina to beat Napoli @ 1.70 at Bet365

All of these odds are rated in black ink on the sheet meaning that they're fair odds.

(all odds updated as at 9:30am GMT)

There are four draws and two home wins that are indicated as being potential "discovered value" bets on Wednesday night.

Udinese to draw with Torino @ 3.25 at VC Bet
Siena to draw with Catania @ 2.95 at Canbet
Sampdoria to draw with Milan_AC @ 3.20 at Bet365
Roma_AS to draw with Lazio @ 3.45 at PinnacleSports

As well as :
Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet

It will be interesting to see how the two differing systems fare.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Blackjack : Learn how to win

Blackjack winning strategy
Do you like to supplement your sports betting with a session or two of blackjack ?

I prefer sports betting mainly, as I like to get the odds on my side, and I also like a hour of poker or two (MTT tournments rather than cash games - it's more relaxing) but recently I've been hitting the blackjack tables too.

I know what you're thinking - "Gooner don't bother the odds are not on your side" - but I've been having a little bit of success using some basic blackjack strategy cards that I found online at's blackjack blog stream.

Take a look at the posts in that link above - especially the three little tables produced by Kishan Neilsen. They're spot on.

I'm familiar with basic strategy - the means to play your cards in the most efficient way - or at least I thought I was but I was surprised how often I was playing it wrong in regards to choosing splits - and some of the double down options.

You can test out your new Blackjack skills by playing for free by choosing one of the no download blackjack tables on our free casino games page.

So far I'm hitting winning sessions at about 7-8 times out of 10 - although you do have to learn to know when to call it quits - and don't get greedy.

Give it a go on the free tables and see whether the tables help your blackjack play.

Mourinho back to Chelsea ?

Mourinho returns to Chelsea?Could Jose Mourinho be back at Stamford Bridge as early as December?

Well that's one possiblity as it seems that "the special one" is odds on to get the vacant manager's job at Valencia who will be visiting Chelsea in the Champions League on December 11.

Mourinho is quoted at 4/7, with the closest other candidate Fabio Capello at 5/1.

See This bookielabrat post for all the odds quotes.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Italy : Betting Sheet Review

A very interesting Sunday in Serie A - with AC Milan slumping to another home defeat - and it's time to check out the results to see how the sheet went.

What did we get right?
Not as much as we would have liked - but we did call the big game correctly :
Roma to win at Milan @ 3.55
Parma to beat Livorno @ 1.80

What went pear-shapped?
Juve actually lost at Napoli (we had them winning)
Inter could not beat Palermo (drawing 0-0)
Empoli lost at home to Atlanta (we thought they'd win)

Value Betting Draw System.
The value betting system finished all square - with one of the three matches finishing all squre to get our money back.
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00 - ended 0-0 :-)
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00 - Udinese won 1-0
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20 - Torino won 2-0

Overall that's 8 bets - and just three winners - but importantly we didn't lose money and did OK on a weekend where upsets hit some other punting systems hard.

800 units staked and 835 units returned for a small +35 unit profit.
I'll try to lock in better returns next week.

England : Betting Sheet Review

So how did we score on the weekend with the English betting spreadsheet? Did we make some beer money?

What did we get right ?
Manchester United @ 1.22
Chelsea @ 1.55
Reading @ 2.85
Sunderland v Fulham Draw @ 3.35

What did we get wrong?
Portsmouth to beat West Ham
Derby to beat Everton

In my defence, Portsmouth missed a last minute penalty - and as for Derby - yeah OK - perhaps I was blinded a bit by the 3.75 odds.

Still - I think that we're on a winner this weekend as that's a total of six bets at 100 units each which returned 897 units.

That is a +297 unit return or a yield of almost +50%.
I'll chalk that up as a winning week. Enjoy !!

Sunday, October 28, 2007

NFL : Week #8 Betting Sheet

Click to see the sheet

MARVIN (Most Likely)


EDDIE (Extreme Underdogs)


Saturday, October 27, 2007

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

Next we head to Italy, and see if we can do an "Italian Job" on the bookmakers prices in Serie A.

click to see the full serie a spreadsheet output

The sheet has quite a few picks this week - and several away picks which is always a tricky thing to bet on in Italy.

The sheet is backing three of the the big sides to win on the road in Italy this weekend.

The first two games might not surprise as Juventus to win at Napoli and Inter Milan to win at Palermo will appeal to a lot of punters especially with prices above even money.

But the sheet also likes the look of AS Roma to win at AC Milan as well, although remember that it does not take potential injuries into account so Totti's absence could be vital.

On the home front - probable wins are seleected for Empoli to be Atlanta and Parma to beat Livorno and again the prices are remarkable good.

If you're value betting in Italy that usually means taking draws - and that is exactly what the system selects this weekend with three likely ties :
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20

Good luck if you're punting.

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

I've sat down down with a strong cup of coffee and gone througth all the odds prices and betting lines, run them through the spreadsheet and got this weekend's output for the English Premier League.

Click to see the full sized sheet

This week there are a couple of high profile games - and I've fine-tuned the prediction profiles so it will mean less observations - and so possibly more inaccuracy - so I'll add a commentary.

So what does it all tell us?

Firstly you can see that the only game picked as a likely winner in Manchester United to beat Middlesbro (bet you didn't need the sheet to tell you that one).

But just a word on the 0% win chance for Middlesbro. All that means is that in the 27 similar circumstances of a mid range side (ranked around 915) visiting a top ranked side (ranked at at 1,110) that they've never won. If I'd stuck with the standard system this week then we would have got a 74%-24%-3% breakdown - showing that Boro's chances are above 0% - but not by much.

However, one bet that Boro fans might want to consider is the DRAW at 6.50. in the 27 previous occasions like this in the last 10 season of the English Premier League the underdogs have managed to DRAW on 7 occasions (about a 1 in 4 chance) and so the 6.50 on offer looks the best single value of the day.

Some high profile examples of the shock draw? Man Utd 0-0 Sunderland in April 2006, and Chelsea 2-2 Fulham in December 2006. They do happen.

Other possible winners (accoring to the RES % system) are Chelsea to beat Man City and Portsmouth to beat West Ham - both considered around 60% likely and at fairish value.

If you're a fan of taking underdogs at a good price with home advantage -then you could do well to look at the chances of Reading to beat Newcastle and Derby to beat Everton.

Both of the home sides appear to be priced well above fair value at between 140%-150% and are considered between 40% and 50% likely to win - not bankers but significantly better than the public generally thinks.

One game that looks to have a high draw chance is up at the Stadium of Light as Sunderland entertain Fulham on Saturday afternoon.

The two sides are rated very closely together, remember that a MARgin of -6 means that we have them at just 6/100ths of a goal apart, but there is more to it than that.

Both sides are rated quite low at between 900 and 920, and the output shows that in the 37 similar games the finished with 14 HW, 14 D, and 9 AW, which shows a slight advantage to the home side - but also a draw chance of 38%.

That makes the 3.35 available on the draw at Centrebet a good value play.

So what about the game at Anfield on Sunday - as the Arsenal travel north to face Liverpool at a venue that has seen them beaten 3 times in a row?

Well I just wouldn'r relay on the sheet data for your bet on this game - with just 5 similar matchups in recent times we've had a results split of 2-1-2 which would appear to make Arsenal a good bet - but 4 results means nothing at all.

Check back onto the main site later on in the weekend - and I'll run up a preview that takes a closer look at this match.

Ok - That's it from me - good luck with your weekend bets.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Spurs sack boss - It's Jol Over

Tottenham have confirmed the departure of Martin Jol as manager following the UEFA Cup defeat to Getafe.

Spurs have issued a statement revealing the board asked Jol and assistant Chris Hughton to stand down, although there were reports earlier in the evening that the Dutchman had resigned.

A statement from the club read: "We can confirm that the board has this evening asked Martin Jol, club manager and Chris Hughton, first-team coach to stand down from their positions with immediate effect."

Jol added: "I can understand the position of the club in light of the results. I have thoroughly enjoyed my time here. Tottenham Hotspur is a special club and I want to thank the terrific staff and players.

"For me the fans were always amazing with their support so I would also like to say thank you - I shall never forget them."

Development coach Clive Allen and youth team boss Alex Inglethorpe will take charge of the first team for the time being, with Juande Ramos the overwhelming favourite to take over in the long term. Gus Poyet, the former Spurs midfielder, has been linked with an assistant-boss role.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Oct 24 released.

Eight more matches in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night - and quite a few of the games appear to have some good options.

The sheet has several "likely winner" choices on Wednesday.

Most Likely winners (picked by both systems) :
AC Milan to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Real Madrid to beat Olympiakos @ 1.30 @ Bet365 (latest price)
Benfica to beat Celtic @ 2.00 at Interwetten (latest price)

Other Likely winners (picked by one system ) :
Chelsea to beat Schalke at 1.55 @ Eurobet
Valencia to win at Rosenborg at 1.67 at Ladbrokes
Liverpool to win at Benfica @ 1.75 at Interwetten

Expectation is 3 or 4 home winners, and 1 or 2 away winnners on these picks.

There are NO discovered winners tonight although draws in both Rosenborg v Valencia and Besiktas v Liverpool might be worth chasing the the draw prices got a little higher.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Oct 23 released.

We've run the numbers and can now release the betting spreadsheet output for Tuesday Oct 23rd in the3 UEFA Champions League.

(click the image for a full sized sheet)

A quick rundown through the "likely winner" picks for the eight games on Tuesday night - typically we would expect to go 3-1 with predictions in this range :

Most Likely winners (picked by both systems) :
Arsenal to beat Slavia Prague at 1.20 at Bet365
PSV Eindhoven to beat Fenerbahce at 1.83 @ Ladbrokes

Most Likely winners (picked by one system ) :
Sevilla to beat Steaua Bucharest at 1.25 at Betfred
Barcelona to win at Rangers at 1.70 @ Interwetten


Also - after getting a few requests on the forum (Robbie, College_Football) we will also cover the "discovered value" system picks as well.

These are picks that are not "likely winners" usually - but by keeping a record of similar bets we've found that profits can usually be made by taking a handful of these good value bets each matchday.

Discovered Value Bets :
PSV Eindhoven to beat Fenerbahce at 1.83 @ Ladbrokes

Stuttgart v Lyon at 3.40 at Bet365
Rangers v Barcelona at 3.75 at Bet365
CSKA Moscow v Inter Milan @ 3.40 @ Ladbrokes

Lyon to beat Stuttgart @ 2.70 @ Betsson

As you can see by the prices we will need 2 or more of these discovered winners to hit in order to make a profit - and you will probably ned to play the Stuttgart v Lyon match by with betting X2 or laying Stuttgart.

Good luck with your punts.

Monday, October 22, 2007

NFL : Round 7 Betting Sheet Review

So that was round seven done and dusted as we have no selections for the Monday night football game - lets see how it did.

MARVIN (Most Likely Banker Bets) ML
Correctly forecast that favoured sides, New England Pats, New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks would all win.

4-0 for the week, 400 units staked in total and a +84 unit profit.

You don't get rich playing banker bets - and we don't really recommend following Marvin - in fact we're surprised that he's managing to stay in profit.

ABE (ATS betting) ::::
Abe picked up wins with the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs and half point losses with both Minnesota and New York Jets.

So 3-2 for the week, 500 points staked and a +73 unit profit.

VINCENT (Value Betting) ML
Value betting is taking longershot bets where you think a team is under-rated and genrally it means that you'll often be needing the last play of the game to go your way.

It wasn't looking pretty for Vincent early on - but both the Chicago Bears and and the Kansas City Chiefs came good for narrow wins.

Vincent finished 2-2 for the week, 400 points wagered and +152 points profit.

EDDIE (Extreme underdogs) ML
Our losing system this week was Eddie who finished just 1-4 with only the Buffalo Bills paying out.

The Miami bet was a bust early on, but the Jets and the Viks looked possible until getting into the 4th quarter and then were found wanting.

Just 1-4 this week, 500 points wagered, and a loss of -252 points.
Eddie is now 8-19 for the season and on a negative yield of -1%

We will be back with more next week.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

England : Betting Sheet Round up

Saturday was fairly predictable in the English Premier League with the top 7 sides all winning - most of them comfortably.

We got hit by the only draw on Saturday - as 10-man Fulham were unable to beat bottom placed Derby County ending scoreless but the other three picks all succeeded.

Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United all won to take the picks record to 3-1 for the weekend. Overall 400 units were wagered, and 462 units returned for a profit of 62 units (+15%).

It's not going to make you rich this week - but it will buy you a few beers. Enjoy!

NFL : Round 7 Betting Sheet

It's time to look at the four systems that are running trying to make a profit.

ABE (ATS betting) :::: Season 12-7 +22% yield
A - MINNESOTA VIKINGS ATS +9.5 at -108 @ PinnacleSports
A - NEW YORK JETS ATS +6.5 at -105 @ PinnacleSports
A - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS +2.5 at -110 @
H - BUFFALO BILLS ATS +3.0 at -105 @ Bodog Sportsbook
A - ATLANTA FALCONS ATS +8.5 at -110 @ Bodog Sportsbook

MARVIN (Most Likely Banker Bets) ML :::: Season 26-9 +3% yield
H - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at -360 @ PinnacleSports
H - NEW YORK GIANTS at -430 @ PinnacleSports
A - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at -1450 @ PinnacleSports

VINCENT (Value Betting) ML :::: Season 16-22 +22% yield
A - ST. LOUIS RAMS at +325 at Bet365
A - CHICAGO BEARS at +225 @ PinnacleSports
A - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at +116 @ PinnacleSports
A - TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +127 @ PinnacleSports

EDDIE (Extreme underdogs) ML :::: Season 7-15 +10% yield
A - MINNESOTA VIKINGS - 184% at +390 @ PinnacleSports
A - NEW YORK JETS - 161% at +250 @ PinnacleSports
H - BUFFALO BILLS - 159% at +145 @ Bodog Sportsbook
A - ATLANTA FALCONS - 201% at +340 @ PinnacleSports
H - MIAMI DOLPHINS - 277% at +1100 @

As usual we will need different hit rate to make a profit in each of the different systems this week.

Marvin will need a 100% 4-0 record, while Abe will return positive value if he can manage 3 correct from 5.

Vincent will also need a couple of winners unless the 0-6 Rams can surprise, and Eddie will also need a couple of winners unless the 0-6 Dolphins can spring the shock of the year.

As usual - you make your own final decisions on what you like from the sheet - and good luck with your betting on Sunday.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Klinsmann for England Job?

The Daily Mirror says Jurgen Klinsmann wants to become the next England manager and is ready to throw his cap into the ring when the axe falls on McClaren.

The German, who lives in California, has turned his back on the idea of taking a club job in England or elsewhere.

He guided Germany to the World Cup semi-finals in 2006.

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 20/22

Click to see the full English Premier League Sheet

I've completed the odds sourcing and calculations for the English Premier League and can now release the betting sheets for the period October 2th/22nd 2007.

Likely home wins for :
Arsenal to beat Bolton @ 1.25 at Interwetten
Fulham to beat Derby @ 1.75 at Interwetten
Manchester City to beat Birmingham @ 1.57 at Bet365

And a probable away win for :
Manchester United to win at Aston Villa @ 1.80 at Bet365

Good luck.

Friday, October 19, 2007 is back in the USA Poker Market!

As at October 19, 2007, the poker site fronted by Doyle Brunson is welcoming US based players back into their rooms.

10 time World Series Of Poker bracelet winner Doyle Brunson is determined to allow American players to play poker online legitimately on the Microgaming Poker platform - and now 39 states are now allowed to play.

Visit now !!

Unfortunately, these 11 states are still prohibitied due to local state laws :
Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Washington.

If you're in one of those states then you need to search further to find the best Poker room for you.

We have our special report - the top Poker Rooms for USA Players one page showdown - which outlines and also features 3 other PokerRooms accepting ALL American players.

Check out our full page review about the Doyles Room Poker Site.
Or go directly to and check them out now !!

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 20/21

Here is the betting spreadsheet for the Itaian Serie A for the weekend of October 20th/21st, 2007.

Likely home wins for :
AS Roma to beat Napoli @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Fiorentina to beat Siena @ 1.40 a Interwetten
AC Milan to beat Empoli @ 1.27 at Betsson
Atlanta to beat Torino @ 2.30 at Bet365
Sampdoria to beat Parma @ 1.85 at EuroBet
Juventus to beat Genoa @ 1.42 at Betsson

And a probable away win for :
Inter Milan to win at Reggina @ 1.50 at Bet365

The discovered value systems indicate that the wins for Roma, Fiorentina and Juventus are worth taking.

Good luck.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Bolton : Who is the new manager?

Bolton boss Sammy Lee is out - fired after Bolton won just five points from their first nine Barclays Premier League games.

Lee, who took over from Sam Allardyce towards the end of last season, left Wanderers "by mutual consent" following their disappointing start to the season.

And it looks like former Wigan boss Paul Jewell is odds-on to get the job with Bet Direct at 1.50 about Jewell replacing him, while bet365 are 1.57, and betting exchange Betfair are 2.14.

bet365 spokesman Steve Freeth said: "You won't be getting any prizes for guessing Paul Jewell is the man we have top of our list. "It will be a lot easier replacing Sammy Lee than it would have been Sam Allardyce and you can't see Jewell being out the game for much longer - as long as there was nothing written in his contract by Wigan."

Chris Coleman, currently managing Real Sociedad in Spain's second tier, is the second favourite with most firms, ranging from between 5.50 and 6.00. VC Bet's Dave Jenkins explained: "There are rumours circulating about Coleman returning from Spain and we have to respect these at this stage and he's been priced up accordingly."

Other runners in this list are :
- Watford's Aidy Boothroyd, (15.00 at Bet365, 24.00 at Betfair)
- former Bolton player Peter Reid (11.00 at Betfair)
- and current player Gary Speed (15.00 at Bet365)

These sort of markets fluctuate wildly though - and you usually can get the best prices on at the betting exhcanges - where the "reef-fish" mentality often means that the prices move massively on any sort of rumour.

Well worth a tenner - but nothing more.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

NFL : Pats go 6-0 and get odds cut

NFL review
The New England Patriots have had their betting odds for winning Superbowl XLII cut again after their stunning 48-27 win over Dallas on Sunday.

In a battle between two 5-0 teams on Sunday afternoon, the Patriots beat the Cowboys as easily as everyone else they've faced this season, largely thanks to a career-best five touchdown passes from Tom Brady.

As skinny as 13/8 for the Superbowl prior to kick-off, the Patriots are now +140 (2.40) with UK bookmaker bet365 while Dallas have drifted to +750 (8.50) with Canbet.

The biggest threat in the layers eyes remiains the Indianapolis Colts still priced at +500 (6.00) at Ladbrokes after they didn't play, and the Pittsburgh Steelers who also had a bye and are +1600 (17.00) also at Ladbrokes

San Diego have been cut to +1600 with bet365 following their 28-14 success against Oakland, while Green Bay Packers are now +2000 with Ladbrokes after their narrow 17-14 victory over Washington.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

NFL : Week 6 Betting Sheet

It's week #6 of the NFL and the betting sheet is available.

As usual we have the four systems that are trying to make a profit.

ABE (ATS betting)

A - CAROLINA PANTHERS ATS +5 at +106 @ PinnacleSports
A - MIAMI DOLPHINS ATS +4.5 at -115 @ Bodog Sportsbook
H - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS +3 at -115 @ Bodog Sportsbook

MARVIN (Most Likely Banker Bets) ML

A - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -240 @ PinnacleSports
H - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -249 @ PinnacleSports
H - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -485 @ PinnacleSports
H - BALTIMORE RAVENS -430 @ PinnacleSports
H - CHICAGO BEARS -219 @ PinnacleSports
H - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -275 @ PinnacleSports

VINCENT (Value Betting) ML

H - DALLAS COWBOYS +220 @ PinnacleSports
A - ST. LOUIS RAMS +400 @ Bet365
A - MINNESOTA VIKINGS +199 @ PinnacleSports

EDDIE (Extreme underdogs) ML

H - ATLANTA FALCONS +181 @ PinnacleSports
A - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +229 @ PinnacleSports
H - NEW YORK JETS +183 @ PinnacleSports
A - MIAMI DOLPHINS +183 @ PinnacleSports
H - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +126 @ PinnacleSports

As you can see the low prices for Marvin mean that he'll need to go 5-1 or 6-0 in order to make a profit on the weekends games.

Meanwhile the higher prices for Vincent, Eddie and Abe mean that they'll be in profit if they can pick up two or more winners each.

OH - and notice the dominant bookmaker for prices. IF you're outside the USA then you should be using PinnacleSports for your NFL plays.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Euro2008 : Betting Sheet released

I've been burning the midnight oil this week in order to get the Euro2008 betting sheet out early - and it has been released onto the forum.

But as a special bonus - well also post it here (just click the graphic for a full sized version). IF you've got any questions or comments then get onto the forum thread and we can talk about it.

The Euro2008 Betting Sheet for October 13th 2007


Basically there are two styles of betting - "likely winners" and "value betting".


These are indicated by the + (home win) and - (away win) characters in the to PK columns.

The Kulhavy rating show the estimated strength of the two sides, with the MAR being the predicted margin where 100 points = 1 full goal.

The RES portion shows the previous results of similar rated games - where the OBS column show the total number of previous games.

You will find 8 home wins and 3 away wins predicted as "likely winners" this weekend.

A word of warning - while the likely winners can be profitable - if you can correctly select the right picks - it is difficult to make a long term profit if you are taking bets that are underpriced.

I would not recommend taking bets where the value % number is 85% or below - and these are indicated in red ink on the spreadsheet.


Regular readers will know that this is my preferred system - as the prices are better - but you have to be warned that these are not banker bets.

So in my opinion it is far better to place smaller stakes on EVERY value bet - and wait for probability to do it's thing - rather than risk it all on one or two choices that may not come in.

The discovered value bets are indicated with a "sickly green" background - showing the odds / the potential value / and the bookmaker.

Discovered value suggests 2 home wins, 6 draws and 3 away wins this weekend as being over-priced at the bookmakers.

Good luck with whatever you're betting on.

Kaka to be FIFA World Player of the Year ?

The bookmakers have been swamped with bets on Kaka to be named Fifa World Player of the Year.

Kaka was named FIFPro world player of the year last Friday in an award voted for by 45,000 members of the players' union, and is likely to make it a double.

But if you're thinking of having a punt then you'll find that you've missed the boat as Kaka is now at an almost unbackable 2/5 (1.40) at best.

Kaka started at 7/4 but the Brazilian player is still the only player customers want to back with the only other serious contender is Cristiano Ronaldo, who is priced at 11/2, but the Manchester United star would be the first ever Premier League player to win the award.

The men's list is dominated by players who play in Europe's four biggest leagues: England, Italy, Spain and Germany. Juninho, who plays for French champion Lyon, is the only exception.

The list is currently 30-strong but the names of the three finalists will be announced in early December and the FIFA award winners will be chosen from those finalists and presented with the awards at the Zurich Opera House on Dec. 17.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Victor Chandler arrested in France ?

Victor Chandler still smilingNot as such it seems but it was a pretty close thing when Victor Chandler was attending the Arc de Triomphe race meeting at Longchamps on Sunday.

Victor Chandler, the head of the self titled betting company is one of the UK's leading bookmakers, was in discussions with the local Gendarmarie for allegedly taking bets on horses.

Mr Chandler and several other bookmakers were in a hospitality facility for British race fans organised by Horse Racing Abroad when the local police moved in.

The four bookmakers are alledged to have been found in possession of betting stubs and (ahem) bundles of large Euro bills. All four were questioned and later released, however they were ordered not to leave the country pending further investigation.

In a brief statement, a spokesman for Victor Chandler said, "Four people from Victor Chandler were questioned by French police on Monday in respect of various aspects regarding entertaining at Longchamps. They were subsequently released without charge."

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

FourPlay costs BetFred as punters get cashback.

It's always good to see a bookmaker cashback promotion payout - and that's what has happened over at Betfred this weekend.

Betfred were offering correct score refunds of up to GBP £100 if a side scored four goals or more on the weekend.

Man Utd 4-0 win means a refund for all correct score punters in this game at Betfred - and there must have been a few trying their luck at another 1-0 scoreline.

(see for more info )

Mind you - Fred was lucky. It could have been a very expensive weekend with Arsenal, Manchester City, and Newcastle Utd all bagging three goals and coming close to a 4th on several occasions.

It's worth keeping and eye on the bookmakers for these special deals.

EPL Outrights : Liverpool losing ground

Liverpool are drifting in the betting after dropping more points at home in a 2-2 result with struggling Tottenham on Sunday.

The Reds needed a last-minute equaliser from Fernando Torres just to rescue a point after two goals from Robbie Keane either side of the break had put Spurs in front to wipe out Andriy Voronin's 12th minute opener.

Liverpool are now out to 6/1 (7.00) to finally win the Premier League.

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Rugby World Cup : I hate being right ...

Gooner in France for the 1998 Football World Cup
A tough weekend for New Zealand as the All Blacks are beaten 20-18 by a fired up France side in the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals.

However - regular readers of the blog will be in profits if you remember the betting tips post before the RWC started :

(2) You believe that New Zealand are vulnerable because nothing is ever 100% sure in sport and as I've demonstrated even the 80% sure All Blacks CAN lose.

Either LAY the All Blacks at Betfair to more than double your money and have all 19 other teams on your side.

Or, if you believe that there are only 4 other contenders, back France, Australia, South Africa and England according to your preferences and you will have at least one team in the final - and be standing to make a very sizable profit indeed - IF the upset happens.

(click here to see the full entry)

So the All Blacks are out despite all their talent - I feel that I was right with the estimate that they only had a 50-50 chance of winning the whole thing.

Prices (and my estimates of win chance) at that stage were :
New Zealand --- 52% chance @ 1.57 (Bet365)
France -------- 14% chance @ 8.00 (BetFred)
Australia ----- 12% chance @ 13.00 (Ladbrokes)
South Africa -- 12% chance @ 7.90 (PinnacleSports)
England ------- 10% chance @ 34.00 (Ladbrokes)

So you can see that you're looking at a very tasty profit now - frankly I have no firm idea of who will win it now - although I suspect that home advantage may sneak it for the French.

Allez Le Bleu !!

The reaction here in New Zealand is one of sadness but not disbelief - and general acknowledgement that FRance played a very good game of rugby to win.

But I'll still spend a sad week or so in mourning for the elimination of our beloved All Black side.

Monday, October 01, 2007

EPL : Tottenham v Aston Villa

Tottenham take on Aston Villa tonight (Monday night) in a "feature" Premier League game and to be honest there does not look to be a lot to choose from in this one.

Spurs are hovering around the relegation zone - a false position for them - they'll surely click eventually - but winning games is proving hard to do right now.

Spurs have lost 1-3 to both Everton and Arsenal here at the Lane - although the did thrash Derby 4-0 here (then again everyone beats Derby) - and it's just not going right for the desperate Martin Jol right now.

And Aston Villa are an improved outfit this season - impressing with home wins over Chelsea and Everton (both 2-0) and a 0-0 draw at St James's Park too.

The overwhelming feeling I get about Martin O'Neill's side is that they're very tough to break down - they've only conceded 4 goals in 6 games - so I'm not really expecting a goal-fest for the TV cameras.

A tough game to handicap - I'm thinking scores of 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1, so the DRAW probably looks the value option at prices of 3.35 to 3.50 depending on the generousity of your bookmaker or the betting exchange.

PICK : 0-0 DRAW.
ODDS : 3.49 at PinnacleSports or 3.30 at Ladbrokes

Cruiser has his preview of the Spurs v Villa game up on the main site now too.

NFL Spreadsheet - a good week for value

NFL football betting spreadsheet
Round 4 of the NFL was a good one for "value punters" as there were quite a few upsets where the underdogs bit back.

That meant good news for most followers of the NFL spreadsheet as 3 of the four systems showed a profit.

Abe 2-1 (ATS) -- 300 units staked / +95 units profit.
Our ATS system went 2-1 with wins Atlanta and Buffalo - but the St Louis Saints seem a lost cause being thumped 7-35 in Dallas. We are going to have to give them a serious re-rating.

Vincent 2-0 (ML) -- 200 units staked / +430 units profit.
Our value system also hit the bullseye, correctly identifying Oakland (+195) and Arizona (+235) as dogs worth backing this weekend.

Eddie 3-0 (ML) -- 300 units staked / +897 units profit.
But pride of place this week has to gp to Eddie (our Extreme Value system) who has almost increased his weekly stake four-fold - returning almost $900 bucks profit in his first three plays.

Taking Atlanta (+135) and Cleveland (+202) is almost understandable - after all they were at home and facing teams that were a touch over-rated - but what on earth did he see in Kansas City to back them?!!

The Chiefs smoked San Diego 30-16 and paid out at staggering +560 on the moneyline (6.60 decimal odds) to put the extreme value system into profit for the season.

Marvin 1-3 (ML) -- 400 units staked / -279 units lost.
Of course the down side to all this is that the short priced favourties system Marvin had a bad day losing 3 bets out of 4.

Remember that this is a system that we DO NOT THINK CAN WIN. It takes all the short priced "locks" and if it makes a profit then the bookies would be going broke - and that ain't happening anytime soon right?

We post it and track it for interests sake - but we don't bet on the Marvin system - as it's unlikely to make money.


That Patriots are in Cincinnati on Monday night - is a game that everyman and his mailman think will be an easy win for New England.

Of course - we know differently - nothing in thr NFL is easy.

Marvin is backing the Pats - while Eddie is taking the Bengals to keep the underdog run going at a very good price of +300 (4.00)


Live Odds collected from five top sportsbooks (2 take US players too)
NFL Football Preview Page (read GoldFingers preview)