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Thursday, November 29, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet review

Click to visit
Time to check out how the UEFA betting spreadsheet went for Matchday #5 of the UEFA Champions League.

Wednesday was pretty successful and this means that the round as a whole was pretty good.

Success with Inter Milan (1.40), Manchester United (1.58), Chelsea (1.65), Celtic (1.93) and Besiktas (2.75) ... and just one failure with Lazio.

That's 600 units staked for 931 units returned.
A profit of +331 units gives a yield of +55%

Both of Wednesday's draws came in - turning around the double failure on Tuesday and leaving the "value system" well in profit.

That's 400 units staked for 685 units returned.
A profit of +285 units and a tasty +71% yield.

So I think that the sheet helped punters to spot ways to make quid this week - and you'll be able to toast the sheet during a round of free beers down at the pub on Friday night.

Cheers !!

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 28

Yesterday's sheet nailed to two likely winners (just) - but failed with the value draws.

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday 28th November.


Celtic to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Lazio to beat Olympiakos @ 1.94 at PinnacleSports
Besiktas to beat Marseille @ 2.75 at Canbet

Chelsea to win in Rosenborg @ 1.65 at Interwetten


DRAW Valencia v Schalke @ 3.60
DRAW Benfica v AC Milan @ 3.25

Good luck

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 27.

UEFA Champions League Spreadsheet
Here is the betting spreadsheet for Tuesday 27th November.


Manchester United to beat Sporting Lisbon @ 1.58 at Canbet
Inter Milan to beat Fenerbahce @ 1.40 at PinnacleSports

The likely winners are simply based on the MARgin bring greater than 75 points (or 3/4 of a goal). We should ignore the RES rating for Slavia Prague as it's only based on 15 previous games.


DRAW Seville v Arsenal @ 3.45
DRAW Stuttgart v Rangers @ 3.30

The value system is based on the strength of the AWAY side and also the projected MARgin. In this case both games are very close to even strength.

Good luck with your midweek punts.

Monday, November 26, 2007

UEFA Champions League : Match Day Five

uEFA Champions League Matchday Five
Matchday Five of the Champions League this week - as the group stage comes down to the business end.

Arsenal and Manchester Utd are already through while Chelsea should be coasting towards the knockout stage.

But Liverpool, Celtic and Rangers face crunch games where failure could cost them millions.

17:30 CSKA Moscow (2.20) Draw (3.25) PSV (3.60)
19:45 Dynamo Kiev (5.00) Draw (3.40) Roma (1.91)
19:45 Inter Milan (1.45) Draw (4.50) Fenerbahce (9.00)
19:45 Lyon (2.75) Draw (3.25) Barcelona (2.85)
19:45 Man Utd (1.61) Draw (4.00) Sporting Lisbon (7.50)
19:45 Sevilla (2.20) Draw (3.32) Arsenal (3.65)
19:45 Steaua Bucuresti (2.20) Draw (3.03) Slavia Prague (3.62)
19:45 Stuttgart (2.25) Draw (3.30) Rangers (3.45)

19:45 Benfica (3.40) Draw (3.25) AC Milan (2.38)
19:45 Besiktas (2.83) Draw (3.25) Marseille (2.78)
19:45 Celtic (1.95) Draw (3.40) Shakhtar Donetsk (4.30)
19:45 Lazio (1.81) Draw (3.55) Olympiakos (5.10)
19:45 Liverpool (1.50) Draw (4.20) FC Porto (8.70)
19:45 Rosenborg (6.50) Draw (3.76) Chelsea (1.62)
19:45 Valencia (1.67) Draw (3.75) Schalke (5.80)
19:45 Werder Bremen (3.10) Draw (3.41) Real Madrid (2.38)

All KO times GMT

Henry out for Barca's trip to Lyon

Henry will not be travelling to France
Thierry Henry will sit out Barcelona's Matchday 5 trip to Olympique Lyonnais after he and Oleguer Presas were left out of the travelling squad.

Henry played a major role for Barca on Saturday evening, assisting Bojan Krkic for the second goal in a 3-0 victory against RC Recreativo de Huelva.

Yet he and Oleguer, who replaced Gianluca Zambrotta in the 65th minute at Camp Nou, both missed this morning's training session and will not make the trip to France as Barcelona look to secure progress to the UEFA Champions League first knockout round.

Barcelona boss Frank Rijkaard will be able to call on Ronaldinho, who was rested against Recreativo.

Betting Sheet Reviews

It's time to take a look back at the weekend betting spreadsheets and see how we did in England and Italy.

Hits at home with Arsenal, Everton and Manchester City, and an away win with Chelsea as well - but Manchester United prevented the clean sweep.

Still a 4-1 record produces a profit, as 100 units staked per bet returns 571 units for a +71 unit profit.

And that's not counting the 5.50 price on the DRAW/ARSENAL HT/FT pick or the fact that I actually went for Bolton on +1.25 AH on the main site. (you do check them out right?)

All-in-all a good weekend in England.

After warning about the draws in ITaly we only ran into one this weekend in the Serie A, with winners found for Inter Milan, Juventus, AS Roma and AC Milan as Itlian football sorted itself out.

Fiorentina did draw with Reggina though.

Still - another 4-1 record, and again 100 points on each resulted in a 662 point return for +162 points profit.

Two draws tipped and one of them came in - paying out at 2.95 meaning that the 2x100 point stakes turned into a 295 point return for a +95 unit profit.

There was nothing stunning in the spreadsheet picks - but very, very reliable tips - with all three published systems showing a nice bit of wedge at +328 units. I hope that we helped you into a few "free beers" this weekend - being paid out of betting profits.

Catch ya next week.

Friday, November 23, 2007

Italian Football : Betting sheet Nov 24/25

click to see the fullsized Italian Sheet

Welcome back to the blog - and I've also been able to knock out the Italian sheet in plenty of time for the weekend.

One word of caution about Italian football - it seems that this season is the seaon of the draw in Serie A - as after 117 games this season draws lead all results with a 40-46-31 breakdown.

That means that home wins are running at just 34% (a huge variance on the normal 46% in Italy) and so if you're wondering why your normal home banker accumulators are not working then this might be a mjor reason.

HOME WINNERS (be careful though - read above)
Inter Milan to beat Atalanta @ 1.31 at PinnacleSports
Juventus to beat Palermo @ 1.66 at Globet

AS Roma to win at Genoa @ 2.00 at Bet365
AC Milan to win at Cagliari @ 1.65 at VCBet
Fiorentina to win at Reggina @ 2.15 at PinnacleSports

And if you're following the value DRAW system which has produced good results so far then consider :
- Napoli v Catania DRAW @ 3.48 at PinnacleSports
- Empoli v Torino DRAW @ 2.95 (available generally)

Good luck with your Italian bets this weekend.

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 24/25

click to see the full sized sheet

I've got plenty to be getting on with today so just a quick post with the weekend sheet and the likely winners.

Arsenal to beat Wigan @ 1.17 at Bet365
Everton to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at PaddyPower
Manchester City to beat Reading at 1.62 at Paddy Power

Manchester United to win at Bolton @ 1.50 at Interwetten
Chelsea to win at Derby @ 1.30 at Interwetten

Good luck if your punting this weekend.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Euro2008 : Cars to Croatia as well?

Fancy a Mercedes?Soccer: Russian offers Croatia incentives to beat England

A Russian billionaire has offered incentives to Croatia for beating England in their final Euro 2008 Group E qualifier on Thursday (NZ time), a result that would give Russia a chance to reach the finals.

Spartak Moscow owner Leonid Fedun said he would donate four Mercedes cars to Croatia's best players if their team comes away with a win at Wembley.

Russia had been in the driving seat following last month's shock win over England in Moscow but lost the initiative after a 2-1 defeat by Israel in Tel Aviv on Sunday. They must now beat Andorra and hope England lose to Croatia.

Not many in Russia, however, believe that already-qualified Croatia, who lost 2-0 to Macedonia in Skopje on Sunday after securing their passage to Euro finals, have the ability to beat England at Wembley.

Fedun said he simply wanted to boost Croatia's morale by offering their goalkeeper and the top three field players each a Mercedes. Croatia goalkeeper Stipe Pletikosa plays for Spartak.

"I'm doing this strictly as a fan," Fedun was quoted as saying by the Russian media. If we have even a small chance we must try to use it."

Israeli media reported that English bookmaker Fred Done had promised a Mercedes to the Israel player, who scored a winning goal against Russia.

However, the Israeli FA said Omer Golan, who struck the injury-time winner, would not be able to accept the gift because it was deemed to be "beyond the bounds of sportsmanship".
(link to more on the original offer at

2010 World Cup : Asian Seeds

South Africa World Cup 2010
The AFC have announced the seeds for the third stage of 2010 FIFA World Cup qualification.

The seeding is based on results at the finals and qualifying stages of the 2006 FIFA World Cup and will be drawn in Durban, South Africa on Sunday.

(1) Australia, (2) Korea Republic, (3) Iran, (4) Japan, (5) Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, Uzbekistan, Kuwait, DPR Korea, China
Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Oman, UAE
Qatar, Syria, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Singapore

These 20 teams will be drawn into five groups of four with the top two sides in each group advancing to the next qualification round.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Euro2008 : 12 countries through - 4 places left

Another six countries secured their places at UEFA EURO 2008 on Saturday night taking the total to 12 so far.


Italy, Netherlands, Poland and Spain all progressed with victories while Croatia qualfied thanks to Russia's defeat against Israel, despite being beaten by F.Y.R. Macedonia.

France's players did not even have to put on their boots, with Italy's last-gasp win in Scotland enough to send them through also.

This takes to 12 the number of teams now qualified, with co-hosts Austria and Switzerland, holders Greece, Czech Republic, Germany and Romania already assured their places.


Group A
Portugal are one point back and in need of just a single point more after beating Armenia 1-0. However, Finland's 2-1 victory over Azerbaijan keeps them within three points of the Portuguese whom they could overtake by winning the Porto showdown on Wednesday.

There is also hope for Serbia who will take on Poland on Wednesday and Kazakhstan on Saturday 24 November after snow in Belgrade forced the game's postponement on Saturday. Serbia need wins against Poland and Kazakhstan combined with a Portugal defeat against Finland.

Group C
Turkey can qualify if they beat Bosnia-Herzegovina while Norway travel to Malta and need to win and see an upset in Istanbul.

Group E
England's now need only a point at home to Croatia on Wednesday when the Russians face Andorra.

Group F
Sweden lost 3-0 in Madrid but the Scandinavians will still qualify so long as they take a point from their concluding home game against Latvia. If Sweden lose, then third-placed Northern Ireland – 2-1 victors over eliminated Denmark – can pip them to second place on the head-to-head rule by winning in Spain.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

International Football - the betting sheet

So to recap briefly on how to read this spreadsheet ...

Worka on a home / away basis using a power ranking system to award performance points based on
- actually winning,
- the size of the win,
- the strength of the opponent
- whether it was an upset or not.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
MAR = Margin of win where 1 pt = 1/100th of a goal.

Is an attempt to show the results of previous matches where we had teams that were simialrly ranked with a similar margin.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
H/D/A = % of games results
OBS = number of previous matches used for %

In club based spreadsheets I'd want around 100 OBS before really being comfortable with the res system to being accurate to +/- 3%.

With internationals you have some RES predictions that have less than 20 OBS I'd say that the number could easily be +/- 10% of the REAL figure so be careful and don't wager your bank on a game with only a few previous items of data.

(Club leagues literally have 10 seasons x 380 games and as many as 300+ OBS)

A backtesting sytem that finds games that "could" be considered a value play as the odds outweigh the risk - and there is a reasonable chance of the result occuring.

These are the bets shown in GREEN BACKGROUND along with the price.

There are six home wins (including Scotland !!) and five draws (including Israel) so I suspect UK punters will be hoping that this works again.

Arsenal back on top of the table

Arsenal returned to the top of the Premier League after a convincing 3-1 win over Reading at the Madejski Stadium on Monday night.

Mathieu Flamini, Emmanuel Adebayor and Alexander Hleb were all on target for the Gunners, with Nicky Shorey grabbing a late consolation for Reading in what was a dominant Arsenal display.

Cesc Fabregas - a Gooner legend alreadyCesc Fabregas picked up the man-of-the-match award from Sky Sports with another top display. The 20-year-old has starred in Arsenal's unbeaten start to the season and he admits he is now ready to ditch plans to return to Spain.

Fabregas said : "When I first came to England my idea was to go back to Spain one day ... But the truth is that now I'm happier every day and I love London, the people and the club.

"Every day I have more desire to stay here for a long time, for the rest of my career" - he added.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Win Aston Villa tickets at 32Red

Aston Villa Sponsors 32Red Poker are running a special poker "Giveaways" tournament on November 15th.

You can win a whole range of stuff:
- VIP passes to Aston Villa v Arsenal match (Dec 1st)
- VIP passes to Aston Villa v Man City match (Dec 22nd)
- signed team shirts & footballs,
- free sports bets
- plus free entry to a $65,000 Extreme Stack tournament of your choice.

Check it out at 32Red Poker!

Click to visit 32 Red and find out more.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Why did Mourinho leave? Video evidence!

OK - it's just a parody - and it's quite old - but this one made me laugh.

Drogba - get up !!

and just to show that Jose Morinho actually had a sense of humour - take a look at this genuine response to a surprise question at a Chelsea interview session.

Mr Mourinho was happy to answer the question - despite the "PR suit" trying to sidestep it all - I think I'm developing a soft spot for Jose now he's gone.

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/11

And I've also done the Italian betting sheet as well in time for Saturday afternoon's Serie A games.

The Italian sheet seems to be pretty consistant this weekend - with most of the betting systems coming together to provide a strong direction for punters.

Mind you - please just remember that there were SEVEN draws in the 10 games in last weeks Serie A round and it was only our VaLUE betting draw system that saved us from disaster.

The "likely winners" went 0-4 for a 400 unit loss, but the draw system managed a 3-1 performance for a 510 unit profit !! So as you can see - even with the betting sheet and the number crunching done - it's not a simple path to profits.

Ok - with that warning out of the way - onto the picks :

Likely winners are forecast by BOTH the RES and MAR systems for :
Sampdoria to beat Empoli
Fiorentina to beat Udinese
Juventus to win at Parma
AS Roma to beat Cagliari

While there are single picks for :
MAR : +83 Inter Milan to beat Lazio
RES : 54% AC Milan to win at Atlanta

The DISCOVERED VALUE draw system has three likely candidates this weekend.
Palermo v Napoli @ 3.00
Reggina v Genoa @ 2.90
Torino v Catania @ 3.15

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/12

Here's the betting Sheet for England's Premier League for the weekend of Nov 10th through until Nov 12th.

On Saturday the sheet thinks that :
Liverpool will beat Fulham
West Ham have a chance of winning at Derby County

Sunday sees home wins picked on double systems for :
Chelsea to beat Everton
Tottenham to beat Wigan Athletic
Manchester United to beat Blackburn Rovers

and also single home win picks for :
Portsmouth to beat Manchesater City
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough

In terms of "value betting" there is just one pick this week as the Sheet thinks that 7.25 is far too high for Reading who have a 31% chance of upsetting Arsenal at the Madjeski Stadium.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 7 released.

Here's the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday night.

Click to see the full sized sheet

Remember that the European level there is significantly less data to work with - many sides will only play 6 games at this level in a season and then may miss a season by failing to qualify so it's harder to get quality picks.

Take special care to see the number of previous games being used to produce that pick (the OBS field) and if there is less than 50 games then treat the percentages with healthy scepticism.

Remember that typically 100 points of margin means and average win expectancy of 1 goal. Also remember that an average of 1 goal might mean a 2 goal win in one match and a draw in a second match - averages are tricky things when data is small.

Tonights best picks (dual system picked)

Barcelona to beat Rangers @ 1.23 at Betsson
Manchester United to beat Dynamo Kiev @ 1.20 at Interwetten
Sevilla to win at Steaua Bucharest @ 1.75 at Interwetten
Arsenal to win at Slavia Prague @ 1.57 at Ladbrokes

Possible picks (res% system only)

AS Roma to win at Sporting Lisbon @ 2.60 at Interwetten

Inter Milan to beat CSKA Moscow @ 1.30 at Bet365
Fenerbahce to beat PSV Eindhoven @ 2.00 at Bet365

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

England : Betting Sheet Review

So how did we go in England ?

we said :

Arsenal v Manchester United
- 1) This game is hard to pick
- 2) A draw is the most likely result
- 3) Overs 2.5 goals is probably the best bet

See my full match preview for my betting view on the game.

As for the other picks they should not surprise you :
Aston Villa to beat Derby County @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Birmingham @ 1.73 at Bet365
Chelsea to win at Wigan @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes

And on Monday night :
Man City to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at Bet365

I make that pretty good advice - and a perfect weekend.
Enjoy your beers - and catch ya next time.
Plenty of free beers

Sunday, November 04, 2007

NFL : Week #9 Betting Sheet

I've been working like a slave (actually I sat down after a very nice lunch) in order to the the NFL sheet ready for week #9.

We had an ordinary week last week - with only Eddie (the underdog backer) really making any profits to talk about.

Week #9 is dominated by the big game between the Colts and the Pats - but it will be a tough game to make a strong pick on - and there are other easier games to look at.

What does it all mean? Let me spell out the picks for the four systems.

MARVIN (MoneyLine Bankers) :: Season 34-10 +5% yield

According to our rankings we have five likely winners - although I notice that the public really only agree on the first two choices (Pittburgh and San Diego) so we will see.

Abe (Against the Spread) :: Season 16-11-2 +15% yield

Abe had his fierst losing week in a month last weekend - going 1-2 from 3 picks. Has he lost his touch? We don't think so. Five more choices this weekend.

Eddie (underdog ML) :: Season 9-20 +2% yield

Eddie is a tough system to follow - as he'll lose almost 2/3rds of his bets but the high prices on his dogs tends to make it worth the risk.
H - NEW YORK JETS @ 2.83

Vincent (Value ML) :: Season 20-27 +20% yield

Finally to my favourite system - Vincent's value betting - where he thinks the prices outweigh the risks.

As you can see all four systems are acutally in slight profit so far this season in the NFL - which is a major suprise to me as I expected Marvin's "most likely" system to fail miserably.

Good luck with your Sunday bets.

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 4

After watching the big game between Arsenal and Manchester United, I've sat down and worked out the betting angles for Sunday's action in Italy's Serie A.

Click the image for the full size sheet

Likely Winners

The sheet has recommendations on four matches likely to finish with pickable winners.

Parma to beat Siena @ 1.91 at Bet365
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365
Roma to win at Empoli @ 1.67 at Bet365
Inter Milan to win at Juventus @ 2.80 at Bet365

Discovered Value Betting

In terms of betting on good potential value we also have a handful of draw options to have a look at.

Analysis of the sheet has found a lucrative little "gap" in the bookie odds in Italy's Serie A league where the away team is rated as a slight favourite - specifically between 0 and -30 MARgin.

This method enables us to hit draws at a 38% rate - and is yielding positive returns (between 5% and 25$) in each of the last six seasons.

Catania v Atlanta @ 3.00
Genoa v Palermo @ 3.00
Livorno v Udinese @ 3.05
Juventus v Inter Milan @ 3.10

And also we see some value on the home win in this game too :
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365

Good luck with your Italian football bets on Sunday.

Saturday, November 03, 2007

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 3/5

A big weekend of football on the card - including Arsenal v Manchester United and Blackburn v Liverpool.

Arsenal v Manchester United

Obviously both sides are rated highly with the spreadsheet giving Arsenal having a small 24/100th goal advantage with the game being played at the Emirates.

This advantage of 1/4 of a goal is actually pretty close to the norm - and gives a 45%-27%-28% breakdown over all games - but if you apply the secondary criteria of both teams beeing rated over 1050 then you get an interesting picture.

Just 16 games have been found in my English Premier League database for a 4-9-3 series of results suggesting that the draw is hugely over-priced for this game.

United have been the away side 8 times in those 16 games for a 3W-3D-2L record, and at Arsenal they've gone 1-1-1. Arsenal have been the home side in this situation 6 times, for a 2W-3D-1L record.

In those six home Arsenal "clash of the titans" - 20 goals were scored and the Over 2.5 goals bet won four times out of six.

So what does that all tell us?
- 1) This game is hard to pick
- 2) A draw is the most likely result
- 3) Overs 2.5 goals is probably the best bet

See my full match preview for my betting view on the game.

As for the other picks they should not surprise you :
Aston Villa to beat Derby County @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Birmingham @ 1.73 at Bet365
Chelsea to win at Wigan @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes

And on Monday night :
Man City to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at Bet365

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Liverpool Footballer Riise Drops his Payslip.

Liverpool footballer John Arne Riise has been embarrased as a copy of his wage slip from the football club has been appearing on the internet.

Images of the pay packet, containing the player's address in Liverpool and his National Insurance number, have appeared on the internet revealing the 27-year-old earned £139,634.62 gross in August 2006.

We of course think that's totally irresponsible to show those details - ahem - so we've twinked them out in order to show the rest. (click to see fullsize)

Click the image for a fdull size version

Reading like something out of a computer game you find out that Riise has the following payments (with our guesses as to why) :
- a £120,000-a-month basic salary,
- a £250 point bonus (only 250?? Was it a bad month?),
- a £4000 appearance bonus (four games @ £1000 match?)
- and a £15,384.62 Champions League payment for making the group stage.

Of course it's not all beer and takeaway curries for Riise. He has expenses too.

On the downside, he pays £55,508.28 in tax EVERY month, and a sizable NIC payment of £1,611.67 too.

But perhaps the most surprising thing is that the club also charges him a £65 meal bill and £36 for a match ticket - perhaps for a game he wasn't playing in? No wonder players are upset to be left out.

All that left Riise with a net wage of £82,413.67 for the month. Not a bad way to make a living eh?

Carling Cup Outright Betting

CArling Cup football betting odds
Chelsea remain favourites to win the Carling Cup after overcoming a mighty scare to beat Leicester 4-3 at Stamford Bridge this week.

Frank Lampard completed a hat-trick with an injury-time winner to put the holders into the quarter-finals and Chelsea are 11/4 favourites (3.75) with Ladbrokes to defend the trophy.

Arsenal's latest batch of young Gunners cruised into the last eight with a 3-0 win at Sheffield United. Last season's runners-up were comfortable victors at Bramall Lane thanks to Eduardo da Silva's brilliant double and a deflected third from Denilson.

were made to work harder as they overcame Cardiff 2-1 at Anfield. But a Steven Gerrard winner soon after proved good enough for the Reds.

Spurs are fourth favourites after Juande Ramos' first game in charge ended in a 2-0 home win over Blackpool. Robbie Keane and Pascal Chimbonda got the goals.

Manchester City (1-0 winners at Bolton), Blackburn (2-1 winners at Portsmouth) and Everton (1-0 extra-time winners at Luton) are all 11/1 at bet365 while West Ham are the 14/1 outsiders of the all-Premier League quarter-final line-up.

The draw for the quarterfinals takes place on Saturday.

Chelsea 3.75 @ Ladbrokes
Arsenal 4.50 @ Bet365
Liverpool 5.50 @ BetFred
Tottenham 10.00 @ Ladbrokes
Manchester City 12.00 @ Bet365