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Monday, October 01, 2007

NFL Spreadsheet - a good week for value

NFL football betting spreadsheet
Round 4 of the NFL was a good one for "value punters" as there were quite a few upsets where the underdogs bit back.

That meant good news for most followers of the NFL spreadsheet as 3 of the four systems showed a profit.

Abe 2-1 (ATS) -- 300 units staked / +95 units profit.
Our ATS system went 2-1 with wins Atlanta and Buffalo - but the St Louis Saints seem a lost cause being thumped 7-35 in Dallas. We are going to have to give them a serious re-rating.

Vincent 2-0 (ML) -- 200 units staked / +430 units profit.
Our value system also hit the bullseye, correctly identifying Oakland (+195) and Arizona (+235) as dogs worth backing this weekend.

Eddie 3-0 (ML) -- 300 units staked / +897 units profit.
But pride of place this week has to gp to Eddie (our Extreme Value system) who has almost increased his weekly stake four-fold - returning almost $900 bucks profit in his first three plays.

Taking Atlanta (+135) and Cleveland (+202) is almost understandable - after all they were at home and facing teams that were a touch over-rated - but what on earth did he see in Kansas City to back them?!!

The Chiefs smoked San Diego 30-16 and paid out at staggering +560 on the moneyline (6.60 decimal odds) to put the extreme value system into profit for the season.

Marvin 1-3 (ML) -- 400 units staked / -279 units lost.
Of course the down side to all this is that the short priced favourties system Marvin had a bad day losing 3 bets out of 4.

Remember that this is a system that we DO NOT THINK CAN WIN. It takes all the short priced "locks" and if it makes a profit then the bookies would be going broke - and that ain't happening anytime soon right?

We post it and track it for interests sake - but we don't bet on the Marvin system - as it's unlikely to make money.


That Patriots are in Cincinnati on Monday night - is a game that everyman and his mailman think will be an easy win for New England.

Of course - we know differently - nothing in thr NFL is easy.

Marvin is backing the Pats - while Eddie is taking the Bengals to keep the underdog run going at a very good price of +300 (4.00)


Live Odds collected from five top sportsbooks (2 take US players too)
NFL Football Preview Page (read GoldFingers preview)