Search This Blog

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Rugby World Cup : I hate being right ...

Gooner in France for the 1998 Football World Cup
A tough weekend for New Zealand as the All Blacks are beaten 20-18 by a fired up France side in the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals.

However - regular readers of the blog will be in profits if you remember the betting tips post before the RWC started :

(2) You believe that New Zealand are vulnerable because nothing is ever 100% sure in sport and as I've demonstrated even the 80% sure All Blacks CAN lose.

Either LAY the All Blacks at Betfair to more than double your money and have all 19 other teams on your side.

Or, if you believe that there are only 4 other contenders, back France, Australia, South Africa and England according to your preferences and you will have at least one team in the final - and be standing to make a very sizable profit indeed - IF the upset happens.

(click here to see the full entry)

So the All Blacks are out despite all their talent - I feel that I was right with the estimate that they only had a 50-50 chance of winning the whole thing.

Prices (and my estimates of win chance) at that stage were :
New Zealand --- 52% chance @ 1.57 (Bet365)
France -------- 14% chance @ 8.00 (BetFred)
Australia ----- 12% chance @ 13.00 (Ladbrokes)
South Africa -- 12% chance @ 7.90 (PinnacleSports)
England ------- 10% chance @ 34.00 (Ladbrokes)

So you can see that you're looking at a very tasty profit now - frankly I have no firm idea of who will win it now - although I suspect that home advantage may sneak it for the French.

Allez Le Bleu !!

The reaction here in New Zealand is one of sadness but not disbelief - and general acknowledgement that FRance played a very good game of rugby to win.

But I'll still spend a sad week or so in mourning for the elimination of our beloved All Black side.