Search This Blog

Saturday, October 27, 2007

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

I've sat down down with a strong cup of coffee and gone througth all the odds prices and betting lines, run them through the spreadsheet and got this weekend's output for the English Premier League.

Click to see the full sized sheet

This week there are a couple of high profile games - and I've fine-tuned the prediction profiles so it will mean less observations - and so possibly more inaccuracy - so I'll add a commentary.

So what does it all tell us?

Firstly you can see that the only game picked as a likely winner in Manchester United to beat Middlesbro (bet you didn't need the sheet to tell you that one).

But just a word on the 0% win chance for Middlesbro. All that means is that in the 27 similar circumstances of a mid range side (ranked around 915) visiting a top ranked side (ranked at at 1,110) that they've never won. If I'd stuck with the standard system this week then we would have got a 74%-24%-3% breakdown - showing that Boro's chances are above 0% - but not by much.

However, one bet that Boro fans might want to consider is the DRAW at 6.50. in the 27 previous occasions like this in the last 10 season of the English Premier League the underdogs have managed to DRAW on 7 occasions (about a 1 in 4 chance) and so the 6.50 on offer looks the best single value of the day.

Some high profile examples of the shock draw? Man Utd 0-0 Sunderland in April 2006, and Chelsea 2-2 Fulham in December 2006. They do happen.

Other possible winners (accoring to the RES % system) are Chelsea to beat Man City and Portsmouth to beat West Ham - both considered around 60% likely and at fairish value.

If you're a fan of taking underdogs at a good price with home advantage -then you could do well to look at the chances of Reading to beat Newcastle and Derby to beat Everton.

Both of the home sides appear to be priced well above fair value at between 140%-150% and are considered between 40% and 50% likely to win - not bankers but significantly better than the public generally thinks.

One game that looks to have a high draw chance is up at the Stadium of Light as Sunderland entertain Fulham on Saturday afternoon.

The two sides are rated very closely together, remember that a MARgin of -6 means that we have them at just 6/100ths of a goal apart, but there is more to it than that.

Both sides are rated quite low at between 900 and 920, and the output shows that in the 37 similar games the finished with 14 HW, 14 D, and 9 AW, which shows a slight advantage to the home side - but also a draw chance of 38%.

That makes the 3.35 available on the draw at Centrebet a good value play.

So what about the game at Anfield on Sunday - as the Arsenal travel north to face Liverpool at a venue that has seen them beaten 3 times in a row?

Well I just wouldn'r relay on the sheet data for your bet on this game - with just 5 similar matchups in recent times we've had a results split of 2-1-2 which would appear to make Arsenal a good bet - but 4 results means nothing at all.

Check back onto the main site later on in the weekend - and I'll run up a preview that takes a closer look at this match.

Ok - That's it from me - good luck with your weekend bets.