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Thursday, October 11, 2007

Euro2008 : Betting Sheet released

I've been burning the midnight oil this week in order to get the Euro2008 betting sheet out early - and it has been released onto the forum.

But as a special bonus - well also post it here (just click the graphic for a full sized version). IF you've got any questions or comments then get onto the forum thread and we can talk about it.

The Euro2008 Betting Sheet for October 13th 2007


Basically there are two styles of betting - "likely winners" and "value betting".


These are indicated by the + (home win) and - (away win) characters in the to PK columns.

The Kulhavy rating show the estimated strength of the two sides, with the MAR being the predicted margin where 100 points = 1 full goal.

The RES portion shows the previous results of similar rated games - where the OBS column show the total number of previous games.

You will find 8 home wins and 3 away wins predicted as "likely winners" this weekend.

A word of warning - while the likely winners can be profitable - if you can correctly select the right picks - it is difficult to make a long term profit if you are taking bets that are underpriced.

I would not recommend taking bets where the value % number is 85% or below - and these are indicated in red ink on the spreadsheet.


Regular readers will know that this is my preferred system - as the prices are better - but you have to be warned that these are not banker bets.

So in my opinion it is far better to place smaller stakes on EVERY value bet - and wait for probability to do it's thing - rather than risk it all on one or two choices that may not come in.

The discovered value bets are indicated with a "sickly green" background - showing the odds / the potential value / and the bookmaker.

Discovered value suggests 2 home wins, 6 draws and 3 away wins this weekend as being over-priced at the bookmakers.

Good luck with whatever you're betting on.