Thursday, September 06, 2007
Rugby World Cup Outrights
The Rugby World Cup starts this weekend and there's been a bit of interest in the forum on the outright bets - although people are finding it hard to weigh up the options ..
... so let me make it simple for you.
First up there is New Zealand. Big, strong, powerful athletic - they're obviously favourites - but are they a good bet at 1.50 or so? No.
The All Blacks are probably about 50% likely to win the world cup. Why 50%? Work it out.
They've won 4 of their last 5 games (80%) against Australia.
They've won 4 of their last 5 games (80%) against South Africa.
And they've won their last four in a row against France.
If we allow France a bit of a ranking boost for being the home side - especially if they make the final then it's reasonable to assume that they're also a 20/80 underdog as well.
New Zealand will make mincemeat of their gruop opponents and then will have three games that matter - each of them against sides that they're 80% likely to beat.
So I make the mighty All Blacks at 80% * 80% * 80% = 51.2% likely to win all three games and lift the Rugby World Cup. It's as simple as that.
Now the fact that they're priced lower means that you've got two choices - either LAY the All Blacks immediately - or consider backing each of the other likely contenders.
And who are they? Just four other sides in my opinion.
The three other winners of the Rugby World Cup (Australia, South Africa and England) and the host side France.
Sorry to Ireland, Wales and Argentina (and the other 12 participants) - but your chances of winning three knockout games in a row against opposition of that calibre is exactly NIL.
And frankly despite the hype that each of the remaining four sides might have at home - there is little to choose between these four nations. Each of them would be favoured to win a clash if they were hosting the match.
Perhaps I'll give France a little boost, and drop England a tiny bit after their home losses to South Africa and France - but England can still win a match against any of these three - on their day.
So if I said that the remaining 48 percentage points should be spilt as France 14%, South Africa 12%, Australia 12% and England 10% would you really argue too hard with that?
So there we have it.
THE POSSIBLE WINNERS
New Zealand --- 52% chance @ 1.57 (Bet365)
France -------- 14% chance @ 8.00 (BetFred)
Australia ----- 12% chance @ 13.00 (Ladbrokes)
South Africa -- 12% chance @ 7.90 (PinnacleSports)
England ------- 10% chance @ 34.00 (Ladbrokes)
And for the betting scheme there are two approaches :
(1) You simply believe that New Zealand will win because they are the best side and FINALLY their time has come.
Then don't bet on the outrights - there is not value. Simply enjoy the tournament - and personally I hope you are right.
(2) You believe that New Zealand are vulnerable because nothing is ever 100% sure in sport and as I've demonstrated even the 80% sure All Blacks CAN lose.
Either LAY the All Blacks at Betfair to more than double your money and have all 19 other teams on your side.
Or, if you beleive that there are only 4 other contenders, back France, Australia, South Africa and England according to your preferences and you will have at least one team in the final - and be standing to make a very sizable profit indeed - IF the upset happens.
WARNING - the All Blacks ARE deserved favourites - and they are the single most likely side to win the 2007 Rugby World Cup.