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Saturday, November 03, 2007

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 3/5

A big weekend of football on the card - including Arsenal v Manchester United and Blackburn v Liverpool.

Arsenal v Manchester United

Obviously both sides are rated highly with the spreadsheet giving Arsenal having a small 24/100th goal advantage with the game being played at the Emirates.

This advantage of 1/4 of a goal is actually pretty close to the norm - and gives a 45%-27%-28% breakdown over all games - but if you apply the secondary criteria of both teams beeing rated over 1050 then you get an interesting picture.

Just 16 games have been found in my English Premier League database for a 4-9-3 series of results suggesting that the draw is hugely over-priced for this game.

United have been the away side 8 times in those 16 games for a 3W-3D-2L record, and at Arsenal they've gone 1-1-1. Arsenal have been the home side in this situation 6 times, for a 2W-3D-1L record.

In those six home Arsenal "clash of the titans" - 20 goals were scored and the Over 2.5 goals bet won four times out of six.

So what does that all tell us?
- 1) This game is hard to pick
- 2) A draw is the most likely result
- 3) Overs 2.5 goals is probably the best bet

See my full match preview for my betting view on the game.

As for the other picks they should not surprise you :
Aston Villa to beat Derby County @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Birmingham @ 1.73 at Bet365
Chelsea to win at Wigan @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes

And on Monday night :
Man City to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at Bet365