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Tuesday, November 13, 2007

International Football - the betting sheet

So to recap briefly on how to read this spreadsheet ...

Worka on a home / away basis using a power ranking system to award performance points based on
- actually winning,
- the size of the win,
- the strength of the opponent
- whether it was an upset or not.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
MAR = Margin of win where 1 pt = 1/100th of a goal.

Is an attempt to show the results of previous matches where we had teams that were simialrly ranked with a similar margin.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
H/D/A = % of games results
OBS = number of previous matches used for %

In club based spreadsheets I'd want around 100 OBS before really being comfortable with the res system to being accurate to +/- 3%.

With internationals you have some RES predictions that have less than 20 OBS I'd say that the number could easily be +/- 10% of the REAL figure so be careful and don't wager your bank on a game with only a few previous items of data.

(Club leagues literally have 10 seasons x 380 games and as many as 300+ OBS)

A backtesting sytem that finds games that "could" be considered a value play as the odds outweigh the risk - and there is a reasonable chance of the result occuring.

These are the bets shown in GREEN BACKGROUND along with the price.

There are six home wins (including Scotland !!) and five draws (including Israel) so I suspect UK punters will be hoping that this works again.