Value betting with Spreadsheet - Sat 6th May

Regular readers will know that I publish a football betting stats sheet every week (and midweek) with statistics and predictions for the top leagues in England, Germany, Italy and Spain.

It uses a modified ELO rating system (the sort of system that is also used to rank chess players) to assess team performances home and away and compare them against how they were expected to perform.

Over the years I've added odds lines, and a few value betting systems (which I've creatively called V1, V2 and V3) which attempts to find bets that are +EV and I've been accumlating stats on their performance.

This data goes all the way back to 1998 (when I first started the GoonersGuide.com website), so for these top four leagues I now have 25 years worth of data and predictions which is between 7300 and 8600 games.

These are big and complicated spreadsheets, and it's a lot of data, and over the last couple of seasons they have been providing exceptional value - so I thought that I should resurect the blog and start telling you guys more about it.

So here are the Value Picks for this weekend 6-7 May 2023. I'll identify the game, the system that pinged up, and the bet that I took. Then I'll come back on Monday and post the results.

ITALY SERIE A
Roma v Inter Milan - H1 - Home win is 44% @ 3.05 at Cloudbet
Cremonese v Spezia - D1, D3 - Draw is 35% @ 3.49 at Cloudbet
Empoli v Salernitana - D1 - Draw is 32% @ 3.40 at Bet365
Udinese v Sampdoria - D2 - Draw is 27% @ 4.20 at Bet365
Sassuolo v Bologna - H1, D2, D3 - Draw is 32% @ 3.51 at Cloudbet

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA
Freiburg v RB Leipzig - H1, H2, H3 - Home win is 41% @ 4.02 at CloudBet
Hertha Berlin v Stuttgart - H1 - Home Win is 42% @ 3.09 at Cloudbet
Hoffenheim v Eintracht FRankfurt - A3 - Away win is 37% @ 3.00 at Bet365

Spain is not playing this weekend as it's their Cup Final weekend, and there was only one "value" bet in England with Leeds United paying 20.00+ to win at ManCity but at just 7% it's very unlikely.

I may go and Lay ManCity if they drop to 1.15 at Betfair (offering about 7.00 for a Leeds win/draw) but it's not an official bet this week.

So what do you think? Anything there to tempt you into a punt - or all a waste of money? Let me know.