Here is the sheet for the four Champions league Quearter Final games - and as you can see there are no "likely picks" in this round as the quality of the field tightens up.
VALUE BETTING
There are of course the usual "value bets" to consider.
AC Milan (52%) are considered the most likely winner of the round as they face Baryern Munich and with a best price of 2.10 (at PinnacleSports) that's considered better than fair value at 109%.
Elesewhere PSV Eindhoven are favoured over Liverpool, Chelsea to beat Valenica (although the Valencia win price is huge and good value) and Man United are possibles to beat Roma - however all three games could easily finish in draws.
ROMA V MAN UTD - LOW HOME RATING?
However, one thing to note is AS Roma's low home rating - which may have been affected by playing games in empty stadiums a couple of seasons back.
If I manually adjust their home rating to a "nominal" value of 1000 then the expected percentages become 41-32-27 tilted in AS Roma's favour ... and the home win bet is then 114% value.
Of course it's your call which number is more accurate.
Good luck with your bets this week.
;-)
