We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :
1/ Bayern Munich v Leverkusen to DRAW at odds of 5.00 with 33% chance for 165% value.
2/ FREIBURG to beat Dortmund at odds of 3.30 with 36% chance for 119% value.
3/ UNION BERLIN to win at Wolfsburg at odds of 3.20 with 36% chance for 115% value.
4/ Bochum v Eintracht Frankfurt to DRAW at odds of 3.60 with 30% chance for 108% value.
5/ DARMSTADT to beat Mochengladbach at odds of 3.00 with 46% chance for 138% value.
However, there are quite a few circumstances to consider here and not all bets are sound.
Let's start with the obvious. The stats for the first pick Bayern Munich v Leverkusen are based on just 3 previously similar games (3 obs). That's no basis for a statistical percentage so the real draw percentage could be anywhere from 20% to 40% and we cannot trust the calculation. That being said both sides have started with three wins and Leverkusen do look a good side this year. I do actually like the draw bet here but you can't beleive any percentage number based on just 3 games matched.
The next pick of FREIBURG to win has a lot more data (95 obs) and again I do like this pick. Freiburg started with twq narrow wins before being thumped at Stuttgart last time so they're under-rated a bit - and Dortmund look to be less of a unit than they hae been in recent years. I'll take this.
Bet #3 is UNION BERLIN to win at Wolfsburg. I perfer taking Union to win at home, but thy lost 0-3 last time out and perhaps they will bounce back here? Based on 203 similar games we have the results as 34-30-36% likely so the bigger price on the away side appeals.
Our fourth bet is a DRAW pick in the Bochum v Eintracht game. It's possible, and it's interesting that the sheet prefers this to the home win which is actually better value. Eintracht are favourites despite not winning on the road in their last six away games - and Bochum have won this fixture in each of the last two seasons. I think I actually prefer the home win.
Finally, we have DARMSTADT as good value to beat Monchengladbach. Both sides are a bit awful this season and already in relegation trouble. My sheet has found 69 previous Bundesliga games that were simialr statistically, and of those th home side won 46% - almost half! A price of 3.00 for a home win looks good.
So five bets - and some of the reasoning is a bit dodgy with not too much data - but I do like them all.
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