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Tuesday, September 26, 2023

ISA - 26th to 28th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Let's quickly go through the Serie A matches in midweek looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for 26th-28th September.
We’ve got two bets to consider in midweek :
1/ Empoli and Salernitana to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 33% chance for 106% value.
2/ ROMA to win at Genoa at odds of 2.20 with 42% chance for just 92% value.

The Empoli v Salernitana draw is clear - it's not a sure thing at all at 33% - but with both sides already close to the bottom it will be a case of defence first and a 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 or 1-1 score line looks likely. The draw is a good value bet.

The second bet is to take AS Roma to beat Genoa, which is not at quite fair value, but the spreadsheet is recommending, probably influenced by the fact that AS Roma have won this fixture in each of the last 3 seasons. Take the bet.

And that’s it. Short and sweet. Two bets and we only need one to win to collect a profit.

Buona fortuna, amici

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