We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :
1/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat RB Leipzig at odds of 5.00 with 34% chance for 179% value
2/ DORTMUND to beat Wolfsburg at odds of 1.73 with 69% chance for 119% value.
3/ UNION BERLIN to win at Hoffenheim at odds of 2.05 with 57% chance for 117% value.
4/ Leverkusen v Heidenheim to DRAW at odds of 6.50 with 20% chance for 130% value
However, there are a couple of things that mean not all bets are sound.
Two of the home wins are clear enough as both DORTMUND and UNION BERLIN are solid favourites and being priced quite highly. This is probably due to the midweek Champions League games that both sides have had to play, and it's something thatr the sheet does not factor in. Still both bets are sound and should be taken.
The next pick of MONCHENGLADBACH is riskier and with a far higher potential reward. Leipzig are the better side, and even my sheet has Leipzig as favourites to win, but the odds being offered on the home side - who have won this fixture in EACH of the last three seasons - mean that the value and therefore our betting eye must be on the home side.
The final pick is a potential draw between Leverkusen and Heidenheim at a very tasty price of 6.50. It's only a 20% chance - but Heidenheim have already drawn 2-2 at Dortmund this season paying out at a price of 7.00 so there is some logic to the sheets pick. It's up to you whether you take this or not.
One other related note is that there is even more potential value in a draw between Bayern Munich and Bochum which pays 11.00 (!!) but is only 14% likely. In analysis of these unlikely draws the sheet has determined that chasing value below about 17-18% likelihood just does not payout often enough to keep punters happy. So this draw is not recommended. And you are taking your chances with the other one too.
So three home win bets - and I do like them all. Two potential value draws - maybe one is worth chasing? Your call.
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