EPL - 23rd-24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in English Premier League

Let's head off to England and take a look at the Premier League for the latest round - and find a wee bit of value. Here is the sheet output for this week.

The spreadsheet has four bets indicated - and we will do a bit of tweaking.
1/ Man City and Nottingham to draw at odds of 8.50 with 18% chance for 153% value rating
2/ BURNLEY to beat Man United at odds of 4.40 with 33% chance and 145% value.
3/ Brighton and Bournemouth to draw at odds of 5.25 with 26% chance for 137% value.
4/ SHEFFIELD UTD to beat Newcastle Utd at odds of 7.50 with 25% chance for 188% value.

So how do the bets stack up? Lets examine the numbers.

Manchester City are winning everything. But they played in the Champions League in midweek and frankly a hic-cup is due. Nottingham Forest have lost at Arsenal and Man Utd by 1 goal each time and won 1-0 at Chelsea. So they're a good underdog candidate. The system actually picked an away win (6%) at 19.00 - but I'd modify to a draw or draw/away to improve the chances of collecting.

Next is BURNLEY to beat Manchester United at 4.40 and the odds are still climbing. Personally I think that ManYoo have been unlucky on the road, and are due a win - and they do seem to win here at Turf Moor with 5 wins in the last six trips. However the stats say of 123 previously similar games (statistically) this result likelihood is dead even at 33% for Home win, 33% for Draw, 33% for away win. Perhaps a bet on home / draw to maximise chances again.

Our 3rd pick is a draw with Bournemouth to hold Brighton. The Seagulls have been on fire with a 4-0-1 record and they look good but a midweek loss in Europe is both tiring and confidence shaking and Bournemouth have managed a draw in 3 of their first 5 EPL fixtures. the 26% chance feels about right - so 4.00 would be fair and 5.25+ is a steal at good value. And THAT is our game.

Finally, would it really be a major shock if travel weary Newcastle (played in Italy in midweek) were beaten by Sheffield United?? It's only a 25% chance - but Newcastle have already lost 2 away games in the EPL this season and the price is too good to ignore.

1/ Man City and Nottingham to draw / away at odds of 5.75 with 24% chance for 138% value rating
2/ BURNLEY to win / draw v Man United at odds of 2.15 with 66% chance and 141% value.
3/ Brighton and Bournemouth to draw at odds of 5.25 with 26% chance for 137% value.
4/ SHEFFIELD UTD to beat Newcastle Utd at odds of 7.50 with 25% chance for 188% value.

So there we have it - four bets - and hopefully a profit.