We start with the spreadsheet as always and look at what it has found :
1/ Leverkusen and Darmstadt to DRAW at odds of 7.00 with 21% chance for 147% value.
2/ HOFFENHEIM to beat Wolfsburg at odds of 2.55 with 43% chance for 110% value.
3/ FREIBURG to win at Stuttgart at odds of 3.20 with 38% chance for 122% value.
4/ MONCHENGLADBACH to beat Bayern Munich at odds of 8.50 with 22% chance for 187% value.
5/ UNION BERLIN to beat RB Leipzig at odds of 3.30 with 53% chance for 175% value.
It looks simple enough, but there are a few fish hooks and traps and alters to discuss, and I'm going to alter the bets slightly as I think it improves the chances of a profitable weekend - we will see if you agree.
Firstly, let's start with the Leverkusen v Darmstadt game, where the form says Leverkusen win easily. Leverkusen have started with 2 wins, Darmstadt have two losses so it's easy to pick a home win - but football is not like that and streaks don't go on together. A price of just 1.20 on the home win means that Leverkusen would have to win 5 times out of 6 just to break even. That's a 83% win rate, and our sheet is giving it a 67% chance. The simpliest bet is to LAY against Leverkusen winning at the exchanges at 1.20 (Risk 1 unit to win 5) or bet on X2 at a price around 5 (it will probably be slightly less because bookies are B@st@rds!)
Hoffenheim to win at home against Wolfsburg is easy enough to see - Hoffenheim 4-0-2 in last six homes while WOlfsburg are 3-0-3 on the road, so 2.55 is a great price for a very plausible home win.
Stuttgart (2.25) and Freiburg (3.20) are evenly matched, both teams have about 38/39% chance to win in the sheets opinion, so we simply go wih the bigger price because we chase the best value.
Taking Monchengladbach to beat Bayern Munich seems foolish at first glance, but the sheet looks deeper than this season. Consider that Monchengladbach love to beat Bayern Munich - they've done it here is FOUR of the last six seasons at prices of 5.00, 6.50 and 7.00 and suddenly the bet looks better. OK - Bayern have Harry Kane and look good right now. But weird sh!t happens when these sides play. To make the bet slightly more likely we can include the draw as well as it's also great value - so you can take Monchengladbach double chance (1X) or LAY Bayern Munich on the exchange and you should get a 49% chance of a collect at a price of 3.00
Finally, Union Berlin to win at home is always a good bet if you can get over even money. Union Berlin went 11-6-0 at home last season. I know that RB Leipzig are a good side, but Union have won this fixture on each of the last three occasions by a 2-1 scoreline each time. I will note that the draw price is also fair value so you could consider hedging an insurance bet on the draw as cover if you are risk adverse.
And that's it. We will be taking FIVE bets in the Bundesliga this weekend, and I've modified them a wee bit as I chase getting more wins and a profit.
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