Here is the sheet output for this week.
1/ Tottenham and Sheffield United to draw at odds of 5.75 with 22% chance for 127% value rating
2/ BRENTFORD to win at Newcastle at odds of 6.50 with 26% chance and 169% value.
3/ BOURNEMOUTH to beat Chelsea at odds of 4.75 with 36% chance for 171% value.
4/ EVERTON to beat Arsenal at odds of 6.00 with 18% chance for 108% value.
So do the bets stack up? Lets take a look
Tottenham have started life very well under their new manager, and should be favoured to win, but Sheffield United are not too far off the pace with 3 1-goal losses and a 2-2 draw against Everton last time out. A home win is almost 70% likely but the price is awful. You can get 6.00 now on the draw - even better than my sheet numbers. I'll be taking it.
Next up is BRENTFORD to shock at Newcastle. I expected more from the Geordies who have lost 3 of their first 4 games, and Brentford are unbeaten in their first 4 games - so I can see this happening. I'll take the bet but may add in a little bet on the draw as well for some insurance.
BOURNEMOUTH beating Chelsea seems reasonable to me, and at odds approaching 5.00 it's one that has to be taken. Clearly Chelsea have the more expensive squad, and are probably half a goal better, but home advantage counts and my stats suggest that in 115 previously similar games the home team won almost as often as the away side (36% to 39%). So I'll take the team offering a good payout.
Finally, the bet I hate - but have to admit I see why it's recommended is EVERTON to beat Arsenal. Everton are not good but they've won this fixture on 4 of the last five occasions- either 2-1 or 1-0. Arsenal are not playing that well but still have a 60% chance of winning at Goodison Park. But the value is definitely with Everton at 6.00
OK. That's four bets in the EPL for the weekend. One winner and we are in profit.
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