Search This Blog

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

ESP - 26th- 28th Sep 2023 - Value Bets in La Liga

¡Hola de nuevo! Let's look at Spain's midweek La Liga schedule and find some betting action.

Here is the sheet output - for the upcoming mid-week :
The spreadsheet likes two bets in midweek :
1/ MALLORCA to win or draw vs Barcelona at odds of 2.50 with 50% chance for 125% value.
2/ REAL SOCIEDAD to win at Valenica at odds of 2.90 with 43% chance for 125% value.

Let’s take a look at it now.

Barcelona are doing what Barcelona do. Winning games and sitting on top of the table. But on the road they've already had a draw and the other two games were won by a single goal. Betting on Barca to win at 1.55 is silly. Poor value. But opposing them at 2.50 is a good play.

In the second match, the sheet likes Real Sociedad to beat Valencia. It not an obvious pick, but we have R.Sociedad as slightly stronger and a database of previous results that says they're 43% likely. So the price is right. And so we take it.

And that's it. Two bets and again we need one to hit to make an overall profit.

Good Luck.

No comments: