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Friday, September 22, 2023

ISA - 22nd to 24th Sep 2023 - Value Betting in Italian Serie A

Ciao bella! Grab an coffee let's quickly stroll through the Serie A matches this weekend looking for value bets.

Here is the sheet output for this weekend of football in Serie A :
Note that this sheet show the weekend and midweek next week - but we will be focusing on the weekend in this briefing.

We’ve got three bets on offer this weekend :
1/ Salernitana and Frosinone to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 34% chance for 109% value.
2/ Lecce and Genoa to DRAW at odds of 3.20 with 34% chance for 109% value.
3/ Lazio and Monza to DRAW at odds of 3.80 with 28% chance for 106% value.

The draws are straight forward enough to see, even if the Lazio v Monza one is a bit dodgy, and at these prices if we get one draw then we show a profit.

A note about 3 away win picks shown on the sheet (games with the “-” symbol in V1 column), all are reasonable picks, but all come in at about 97-99% which is NOT quite value. If you can get a better price than the one shown then they’re worth taking.

And that’s it. Three bets to choose from - if you take two of them you only need one to win to collect a profit. I’ll take all three.

Buona fortuna, amici

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