Here is the sheet output.
1/ MALLORCA to win at Celta Vigo at odds of 4.20 with 27% chance for 109% value rating.
And also one bet even though it’s not good value ?
2/ Sevilla and Las Palmas to draw at 4.00 with 21% chance for 84% value rating ?! WTF?
Let’s take a look at both bets now.
Firstly, MALLORCA winning at Celta Vigo isn’t an outrageous idea. The last six occurrences of this fixture have gone 2 HW, 2 Draws, 2 AW, and Celta Vigo have lost both home games so far in this seasons campaign so they’re ripe for picking. The problem is that Mallorca are not a great road team and have failed to win at Granada or Las Palmas already this season - and both those opponents are probably weaker than Celta Vigo. So it’s a weak bet even if its good value.
The second bet is a draw flagged up by one of the old DV systems. It’s a system with a +10% yield even with these low value punts but it’s 0-2 so far this season. I don’t like it - I suspect that Sevilla will eke out a 1-0 win here. So I won’t take it.
So of the two spreadsheet identified bets - I’m taking neither of them.
But if you must bet on La Liga this weekend - you could try a tenner on these three :
1/ Real Madrid and Real Sociedad to draw at odds of 4.00 with 32% chance for 128% value.
2/ REAL BETIS to win at Barcelona at odds of 8.50 with 17% chance for 144% value.
3/ CADIZ to win at Bilbao at odds of 7.00 with 24% chance for 168% value.
All three bets are on underdogs - and the prices are still going up so you can wait to get even better value. Don’t expect all three bets to win but if one of them comes in then we are in profit and I think that it’s a coin toss that will happen.
Good Luck.
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