The Sheet likes three home win bets :
2. ALAVES to beat Sevilla at odds of 3.30 with 34% chance for 112% value rating.
3. GRANADA to beat Vallecano at odds of 2.70 with 42% chance for 113% value rating.
And I also like these games too :
4. MALLORCA to beat Villarreal at odds of 2.90 with 44% chance for 128% value rating.
5. OSASUNA to beat Bilbao at odds of 2.90 with 42% chance for 125% value rating.
6. REAL BETIS to beat Atl. Madrid at odds of 3.80 with 39% chance for 144% value rating.
Now let's go through a bit of analysis on these - but it's safe to say that home wins is where it's at this weekend (hopefully).
Almeria's pick as a shock winner stands out, they're only considered a 23% chance to do it, but if you think that is too high thenconsider that mighty Real Madrid has a 11-1-7 road record last season which is a 36% loss record. Once you've absorbed that you migt agree that 23% is fair chance (the sheet looked at 73 previously similiar games to calculate it) and so a price of 4.50 would be fair and 8.50 is great value!
Alaves also have a reasonable chance against Sevilla, and remember that Sevilla have just played against Man City in Athens in midweek, which might add to tired legs for the visitors late on. Worth a punt to me.
Granada to win at home looks more straight forward, both sides are poor, but equally poor and the sheet has just 4 ranking points between them (967 to 963) which is only a fraction of a goal, and that often results in a 1-0 home win. The 2.70 price is more than fair - so I will take it.
We also have Mallorca as better than Villarreal by about 2/10ths of a goal, and home advantage could force a narrow win. I was expecting a 2.10-ish price so 2.90 was snapped up while it's there.
Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao are well matched with little to choose between them. My sheet has found 365 similar ranked games in LA liga in the last 25 years and found that the home side won 43% of them. Then consider that Osasuna have won 5 of their last 6 home games last season and you see that a price of 2.90 is too attractive to pass up.
Finally, I have Real Betis as underdogs against Atletico Madrid, but not by so much. Real Betis last 6 home games saw them go 2-2-2. Atl. Madrid's last six away games saw 2-2-2 also. Head to head here goes 1-2-3 in slight favour of the visitors but still it's an even game. The biggest odds are 3.80 on the home win, compared to 2.00 for the visitors. Honestly .. where do you think the value lies? Yup. Home win.
OK Senor - that's the lot for La Liga this week. Good luck with your bets.
1 comment:
I believe that Betis can definitely win against Atleti. Almeria is a risky one, but probably, we will see a goal for Almeria. If they score first, why not take the victory! :)
Post a Comment