So the Rugby World group games are done - well the ones that matter anyway and we have our Quarter-Finals line-ups.
Let's be clear about this - there are just two quarter-finals that matter - France v South Africa, and Ireland v New Zealand - as the top four sides in the World face-off as EVERYONE knew they would over 2 years ago when the draw for this rugby world cup was completed.
France and Ireland both won their group matches against their Southern Hemisphere rivals (New Zealand and South Africa respectively), but you cannot help to get the feeling that South Africa were very comfortable in slipping to a narrow defeat against Ireland once they knew that a loss would ensure that the Boks would avoid meeting the All Blacks in the Quarter-Finals.
The two match-ups now favour the Southern Hemisphere sides for me, And I will not be surprised if both South Africa and New Zealand progress from the quarters, romp past weak semi-final opposition and meet in the final.
One the other side we have Wales likely to face Argentina, while England will probably meet and beat Fiji. But these games are fairly irrelevant because the finalists will almost certainly come from the top four quarter-finalists.
Here are my estimates of various chances in the QFs :
- Wales vs Argentina (60/40)
- Ireland vs New Zealand (35/65)
- England vs Fiji (80/20)
- France vs South Africa (35/65)
Ireland run the very real risk of being run off their feet against New Zealand who will be very focused after several defeats in the last two years, while the Springboks will dominate posession, and territory and will likely grind the French into submission.
If they progress a expected then I give both South Africa and New Zealand an 80%+ chance in their semi-finals. And it's only as low as 80% because of the current vagaries in rules and refereeing meaning that an early red card cannot be ruled out - and that would turn any match expectation on it's head.
And if THAT happens a 50/50% chance against each other in the final ...
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