Sunday Value Betting with the Spreadsheet

Another weekend and here is another round of football bets that look to offer some +EV value bets for us.

I have not had much (any) feedback from readers in the last couple of posts - so I'm going to try a different format with a little more commentary on each bet to see if I can get a reaction out of anyone.

1/ CADIZ v CELTA VIGO - H2 H3 - Home win 2.63 is 130% value

It's a lower table clash in Spain as Cadiz host Celta Vigo, with Cadiz only out of the relegation zone on goal difference and really looking to grab a win to ensure another season of La Liga football. Cadiz are reasonable at home at 6-6-6 with home wins in their last two fixtures here while Celta Vigo are 4-4-10 on the road and have lost their last four away games. It's not a sure win - none of these games are - but I make Cadiz 50% likely to win so any price above 2.00 offers value to me.

2/ ATLETICO MADRID v REAL SOCIEDAD - None - Draw 3.50 is 127% value

Arguably the game of the round in Spain as 3rd plays 4th, with both sides almost certain of Champions League football next season. Atletico are good at home (12-3-3) with wins in each of their last six home games but REal Sociedad are better than all of the opponents that Atleti faced. Sociedad are 10-3-5 on the road, won 2-1 at Barcelona last time and have a chance of a point here.

This is value betting so while a home win is most likely (55%) both the bookies and fans know it and I think that the draw is about 36% likely and at a good price.

3/ ALMERIA v VALLADOLID - None - Home win 2.20 is 127% value

This one is another relegation struggle with Almeria on 39 pts and only one point clear of Valladolid on 38pts who are 18th and in the drop zone. Almeria have been quite good at home (10-2-6) earning 32 of their 39 season points to show good home form while Valladolid's away form of 3-2-13 shows very little promise. Valladolid did beat Barcelona 3-1 last time out when playing at home, but I think that Almeria are about 60% likely to win and the 2.20 price is good EV.

4/ MONZA v LECCE - H1 - Home Win 2.45 is 121% value

Off to Italy next, and again I like the look of the home side to prevail at a price that I think is significantly above fair value. Monza are 10th and are likely to set a Serie A record for best season points total for a promoted team. Monza are 7-5-6 at home, which is far more preferable than Lecce's 4-4-10 away record and I think Monza are about 50% likely to win. So it goes without saying that the 2.45 prcie looks good to me.

5/ JUVENTUS v AC MILAN - H1 - Home win 2.38 is 113% value

Then we have a classic match with Juventus facing AC Milan - and I think that you could make a case for either side to win here - but I'll take Juventus as they're more likely to win with home advantage and are still at a better than fair price. Juventus are 13-3-2 in Turin which matches Napoli for Serie A's best this season, while AC Milan are a much more average 6-6-6 on the road. Once again the maths appears to be in our favour as I have the home side 47% likely to win at a price of 2.38.

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Now I'll move onto three bets that are "rougher" - I still think that they're +EV bets - but I can see why some punters would think that they're not worth taking ...

6/ GIRONA v R.BETIS - A1 - Away win 3.60 is 114% value

This is a mid-table clash - both teams are comfortable - possibly chasing minor European spots - but the desperation isn't there so we should be able to rteat this like a normal fixture. Real Betis have a 7-4-7 road record, which is 6th best in La Liga, meaning that they win away from home more often than people expect and offer value because they're overlooked. The problem is that Girona do well at home (10-3-5) so it's tough to oppose them. But although I make Girona favourites here (41% to win) I don't like the even money (2.00) price - it's just poor value. Instead the maths says Real Betis with a 32% win chance at 3.60 is 114% of value so +EV.

7/ LAZIO v CREMONESE - D3 - Draw is 6.50 and 141% Value

Betting on draws in Serie A is one of my favourites things to do - but usually I like to find two well matched sides that are content to take a point. Lazio are sitting 3rd and have claimed a Champions League spot so although they've got a 10-4-4 record at home they don't NEED to win. Meanwhile Cremonese are relegated so there is no pressure any more. They have a 1-8-9 record on the road this season - and it's those EIGHT draws in 18 games that I find interesting. Look - Lazio are 70% likely to win but odds of 1.22 are poor.

I also make this game about 23% for the draw and so the price of 6.50 for a tie appeals. I'll also point out that Cremonese are 12.00 for the win - but that might be a step too far. You could consider "Laying" Lazio at 1.25 on the exchange and get paid out 4x the risk if you prefer.

8/ BILBAO v ELCHE - None - Lay Bilbao at 1.30

This one is just pure maths - because I understand that Elche are rubbish and rock bottom of La Liga with a 1-4-13 away record.

But Bilbao don't win all the time - they're just 8-3-7 at home this season - so taking a 1.30 price on a home win that I think is about 62% likely is a loser long term as it's only about 80% of fair value. I can't bring myself to bet on Elche to win but once again look to Lay the favourite at 1.30 and you're getting 125% of fair value I think.

OK - that's it. Eight bets. None of them sure things - or even favourites - but on each bet I beleive that the oodds are on our side. I am hoping to bet 8 units and get enough win to collect 10 units back which is a useful 25% return on investment.

So what do you think? Like it? Hate it? Just let me know in the comments.