Here is a very surprising stat for you to consider. Home wins are up in the German Bundesliga this season from an average of 47% over the last 16 seasons to 51% this season with an overall record of 138-60-72 so far !
That is a variation of 4% from the average - or put another way there are 10% more home wins during 2016/17 than usual ... but I suspect that you are still not impressed - am I right ?
Well - what about if I tell you that if you had simply placed a bet on the home win on all 270 German Bundesliga games so far this season then you would 53.4 units ahead if you'd taken the best price which is a whopping +20% yield!!
Yes - I thought that would get your attention !
(Note : We have been taking prices from Bet365, BetVictor, Interwetten, Ladbrokes and PaddyPower for these price stats - all solid and reliable bookmakers).
How has this happened - how can such a simple "system" be profitable and is it a one-season fluke?
Well, betting on all home wins would have been profitable in 8 of the last 9 seasons, for a total of nearly 143 units of profit overall - but last season saw a low of just 44% of home wins so the was only a small profit of 1.3 units and it seemed to put punters off betting on home wins.
So the bookmakers responded by putting prices on home wins up, and they have created a window of opportunity for the savvy punter to make good profits. There will probably be an adjustment at the end of the season as bookmakers check their own profits and losses.
It always pays to check out the stats to find weak markets.