Baltimore Ravens :::::: +10 (-145) O51½
New England Patriots :: -10 (+125) U51½
The NFL Conference Championships Weekend is upon us with the favoured New England Patriots hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC, and not surprisingly the Pats have been posted a 10 point favourites after destroying Houston.
But Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager at Bovada.lv is saying that the public likes the look of Baltimore to cover the spread :
"Last week the bettors had no problem taking New England -10 over Houston, costing the book a pretty penny on Sunday, but this week is a little different as believe it or not 70% of the money is on Baltimore getting 10 points, and is one of those rare weeks as a bookmaker I get to root for the Patriots.”
My betting spreadsheet has the Patriots as 3 point favourites, and I'll just point out that at this stage last year it had New England as 4 point favourites when they beat Baltimore 23-20 to reach the Super Bowl.
But New England have the ability to pile on the points at home. They have a 7-2 record at Foxboro this season, and five of those seven wins have been by double digits.
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San Francisco 49ers :: -5 O48½
Atlanta Falcons ::::::: +5 U48½
Over in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons are hosting the San Francisco 49ers, and given the nature of the performances last weekend - I expected to see some action on the visitors.
Kevin Bradley says :
“I am not too shocked that the public is pounding the 49ers after their performance last week, or should I say Kaepernick’s, hence the early line move going from 3.5 point to 5 point favorites already and is not really making a difference as 75% of the money is still coming in on them."
There may be a wee bit of an over-reaction to last weekend going on here by the public, because my ratings spreadsheet has these two teams pretty much rated as "pick-em", given that Atlanta has the home advantage.
I expect this game to be decided by a field goal - probably in the visitors favour.
Odds at BOVADA.LV to win the 2013 Super Bowl XLVII :
New England Patriots +110
San Francisco 49ers +180
Atlanta Falcons +600
Baltimore Ravens +750
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So, I expect to see both New England and San Francisco in the SuperBowl ... what do you reckon ?
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