Thursday, December 04, 2008
NFL Picks for Week 14.
I have built FOUR systems over the last two seasons :
- most likely winners
- best value winners
- extreme value winners
- ATS winners.
But due to the BLOWOUT nature of the NFL - where some scores can get huge when compared to European football - I've found that you have to choose which type of system you are going to chase.
I've gone for value winners, which means that the system is focused around win percentages and who will get over the line, rather than whether they will cover the spread.
So the best system is VALUE which is marked in the HVal and Aval columns where I take the green marked teams to win on the MoneyLine.
This system was +14% last season, and is exactly +14% yield this season too.
It has a 41% hit rate (32 winners and 47 losers this season) but the prices obtained are good enough to yield a profit.
This weeks value picks are ...
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 49% @ 2.57
DALLAS COWBOYS 49% @ 2.37
ST. LOUIS RAMS 19% @ 7.50
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 36% @ 4.50
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 46% @ 3.55
CINCINNATI BENGALS 19% @ 6.75
OAKLAND RAIDERS 29% @ 4.60
Note that all SEVEN teams are away sides, and all seven teams are actually underdogs forecast to lose if "average" circumstances happen.
But as we know in the NFL a turnover or poor home performance can result in a big dog winning we will need 2 or 3 winners to show a profit this week.