ManYoo and Chelsea both getting action on title odds

It seems that it's a bit of a fan-fest this week as the top prices on both Manchester United and Chelsea are being snapped up by loyal fans.

Chelsea's win over Newcastle on Monday means that it will all go down to the final day of the season, and the title equation is quite simple ... Chelsea need to get more points on the final day than United.

Chelsea are priced at 4/1 (5.00) to win the title - and that price is being hit quite mard by some punters as they do the maths and work out the real chances of a Chelsea win.

Meanwhile Manchester United were priced at 1/4 (1.25), but bookmakers have been swamped and now the best price you can get is a 1/5 (1.20) quote.

So which price do I think is best? In order to answer that we need to make some basic assumptions about the two games - and come up with some match estimates.

Wigan Athletic v Manchester United
Wigan have actually been quite strong at the JJB recently. They have a 8-5-5 home record and are unbeaten in their last SEVEN home games.

United are hardly all-conquering when travelling - at just 9-5-4 in their 18 away games this season. But United have won their fxitures here at the JJB in the last two seasons 2-1, and 3-1.

Away games are hard to win - even Manchester United have won just half of their road fixtures so far and the 1.25 price on an away win speak volumes for bookmaker hype and spin - trying to sell awful odds to legions of fans with red-tinted glasses.

If this were a game with nothing on it then I'd have this game at 21%-24%-55% estimate, but United will be absolutely desperate - so I'll push it out to 13%-17%-70% - but no more.

Chelsea vs Bolton Wanderers
Chelsea don't lose league games at home, but they do draw a lot going 12-7-0 last season and 12-6-0 this season, and Bolton have avoided defeat in 3 of their last 4 trips to Stamford Bridge too.

Still Bolton are just 2-4-12 this season, and are safe from relegation now, so you must expect the home side to have far more motivation.

I'd make this game a 80%-13%-7% chance, with a Chelsea victory the mostly likely result by a long chalk.

The Betting Verdict
From here it's simple - just calculate the percentage likelihood of Chelsea getting moe points than ManYoo in the final game - and we should have our "fair odds".

The chances are :
Chelsea win (80%) * Man United draw or loss (30%) = 24%
Chelsea draw (13%) * Man United loss (13%) = 1.7%

So I think that Chelsea have a total 25.7% chance of the title (fair odds 3.89) while Manchester United have a 74.3% chance of winning the league (fair odds 1.34).

So Manchester United are strong favourites to win the league, but given the current prices - I'd put my tenner on Chelsea @ 5.00

RELATED LINKS :
Manchester United @ 1.20 at Centrebet
Chelsea @ 5.00 at Betsson
See all the Live Premier League Betting Odds at BookieLabrat.