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Thursday, January 04, 2007

FA Cup 3rd Round :: Outright Betting Options

Ah the FA Cup. The last bastion of the "true spirit" of the game - where romance abounds and giant killings can happen at any moment right?

BOLLOCKS !!!

Despite what you BBC commentator or Sky Sports hype merchant might tell you the winner of this season's FA Cup will almost surely come out of the short list of big 4 clubs - namely Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester Utd.

The "romance" of the cup is dead. The big clubs have the depth to win through nearly all the time now. Take a look at the results of the last 10 finals :

2005-06 Liverpool 3-3 West Ham Utd (Liverpool won 3:1 on pens)
2004-05 Arsenal 0-0 Manchester Utd (Arsenal won 5:4 on pens)
2003-04 Manchester Utd 3-0 Millwall
2002-03 Arsenal 1-0 Southampton
2001-02 Arsenal 2-0 Chelsea
2000-01 Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal
1999-00 Chelsea 1-0 Aston Villa
1998-99 Manchester Utd 2-0 Newcastle Utd
1997-98 Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle United
1996-97 Chelsea 2-0 Middlesbrough


So thats a full decade of dominance by the big four :
- Arsenal 4 times
- Liverpool 2 times
- Manchester Utd 2 times
- Chelsea 2 times

The rest of England has won the FA Cup exactly ZERO times in the last 10 years.

Furthermore, unlike the Carling Cup where the top sides often field "C" teams or "youth" sides - if you actually look at when the top teams get knocked out of the FA Cup then it's nearly always by other members of the big 4 club.

Best prices for these sides are :
- Chelsea 3.75 @ PremierBet
- Man United 6.00 @ BlueSquare
- Liverpool 9.00 @ Bet365
- Arsenal 10.00 @ Bet365

And so if you find yourself getting tempted by Bolton @ 35.00 at Gamebookers or Tottenham at 17.00 @ PremierBet or West Ham to go one better this year at 34.00 at BetFred then remember that at best all your are doing is placing a bet for trading purposes and hoping that they do not get drawn against any of the giants.

So while there may be an upset or two, it's likely that your underdog will go out when they meet one of the giants.

Punt with your head - not your heart - or any outdated romanic notions about "the romance of the cup".

Good luck.

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