(Click the sheet image to see the full size version)
Here is the sheet for all the Wednesday night Serie A football in Italy, but once again there is nothing too stunning is what the maths have to say.
There are 3 picks that look like probably winners - but annoyingly they are all at less than fair value :
- AC Milan to beat Catania -- Odds 1.36 at BetFred
- Palermo to beat Ascoli ---- Odds 1.29 at BetFred
- AS Roma to win at Torino -- Odds 2.00 at Interwetten
Note that there is a bit of anamoly with the AS Roma pick, there are just 7 other games where the away side has been favoured this much, and it's gone badly for them with a 2-3-2 record.
I still go with AS Roma here as that -300 point margin equates to a whole goal advantage and I'd make this about 55%-60% likely to finish in an away win.
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Elsewhere the sheet sees potential value in big underdogs playing away from home - but I think that's not a likely scenario - and the bookmakers know it too which is why they're offering such big prices.
However, there might be a bit of value in taking home side Cagliari when they face Fiorentina. I know that Fiorentina are 4th but they're just 3-2-3 on the road ... while Cagliari are 2-5-1 at home.
A draw is very possible (Cagliari have drawn 10 of 16 games in Serie A) and I'd rather make sure it was on my side in any bet - so let's take the asian handicap bet and back Cagliari with a start of +1/4.
(Best price is 1.83 at PinnacleSports)
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