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Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Wednesday's Cracker

There was just 1 win and 2 draws in Tuesday's DNB treble - but that's the beauty of the bet - as it stayed alive to add an extra 10 units into the bank which now stands at 132.50.

CARLING CUP - EVERTON v ARSENAL
On Wednesday we are going to Goodison Park to oppose "young" Arsenal in the Carling Cup.

Arsenal are taking a second string side to this cup match, needing to rest players before two important games coming up (see full Everton v Arsenal match preview here), and so I do not see why Arsenal have anything but a small chance (about 15% in my view) of winning in normal time at Goodison Park.

So I'm recommending that we take a 50 unit 1X bet on Everton.

The standard double chance offers at the bookmakers are poor at just 30%, but we can construct a 42% payout at Mansion Exchange with a liitle bit of work - which is what we are going to do.

So ...

Take 30 units on Everton @ 2.44 at Mansion Exchange
Take 20 units on the Draw @ 3.56 at Mansion Exchange


That's 50 units staked and we will return 73.20 units if Everton win, and 71.20 units on the Draw.

That's a nice profit of between 42%-46% for a game that I feel has just a 15% downside risk.

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And of course as a Gooner, I can always hope for Arsenal to draw during normal time and win in extra time too ...

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